The UKIP Surge Is Under Way – Boggart Blog’s Work Is Done For Now

Two weeks to the election and despite all the screeching from sub – idiotic lefties in mainstream media about UKIP’s support collapsing (on the strength of one outlier poll that showed UKIP down 2 points (the same poll showed a Conservative lead of 6 points but the lefties were strangely silent about that) the people’s army does seem to be on the march. In other pols however …

An old poll but it illustrates the point – Image Source

An article from Sky News owned Breitbart London online news site goes a long way towards explaining why:

from an article by Martin Daubney

Just last week, on the day of the Labour manifesto launch, I probed Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls live on Sky News, telling him the tale of my father, a lifelong Nottingham coal miner and, until recently, Labour voter who, along with the rest of my family and all their friends, have switched to UKIP, as many in the working classes feel abandoned by an aloof Labour party that is increasingly out of touch with the commoner.

I said to Balls: “Why do so many of the working classes feel abandoned by your party? I’m a working class lad who’s done well, and now I’ve done well you want to hammer me with more tax. Lots of people like me are being lost. Where my parents live, lots of people are switching over to UKIP. We see the Labour party as not representing the working man any more. What are you going to do for the working classes?”

What I got was a parrot-like rendition about the mansion tax and zero-hours contracts before adding UKIP’s decision to leave the EU is “stupid for working people”. Read more …

Then there was a big media hoo-ha on the basis of a single poll about how the race was very close in Thanet South, the seat being contested by Nigel Farage with Conservatives one point ahead of UKIP, two ahead of Labour.

Unfortunately that was from a poll conducted by Com Res was commissioned by a Conservative Party donor. The latest poll from Survation and commissioned by a UKIP donor showed a very different pictures:

from Anthony Wells, UK Polling Report:

As well as today’s GB voting intention polls Survation have released a new poll of Thanet South commissioned by the UKIP donor Alan Bown. The poll shows Nigel Farage with a nine point lead over the Conservatives in second place, full topline figures are CON 30%, LAB 26%, LDEM 2%, UKIP 39%, GRN 2% (tabs).

The poll is broadly in line with Survation’s previous poll in Thanet South, which was conducted back in February and showed Farage with an eleven point lead. However, it contrasts with the ComRes poll of the same constituency earlier this month which showed the Conservatives, UKIP and Labour all neck-and-neck.

I wrote about the differences between the ComRes and Survation polling in Thanet South earlier this month here. In short there are some obvious contrasts between the two companies approaches … Read all …

Does this mean polling companies give the result their customers want?

Not at all, they’d have no credibility if that was the case. But where customers do have influence is in framing the questions responsents are asked. And I have learned that while the Com Res poll asked people to state which prty they were voting for, Survation named candidates and their parties, e.g. Joe Bloggs, The Silly Party.

So what these polls prove really is that Nigel Farage has a name people recognise. but few among us could not have guess that. As for who will wing the seat, we’ll have to wait and see. but the ballot paper will bear candidates names as well as the party they represent.

Meanwhile numbers from polls published today are as follows:

Panelbase CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%
Survation CON 33%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4%
ComRes CON 36%, LAB 32%, LAB 8%, UKIP 10%, GRN 5%
YouGov CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

Clearly UKIP are not dead in the water as those left wing screechers are saying, other than that if you think you can discern a trend in any of those numbers that might point to a likely election result, you’re welcome to try. Although ……………. there could be something in this story:

UKIP ‘Will Be Second’ in Many Northern Seats

A theme repeated here:

Ukip are on track for a huge success on election night

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s