German Populist AfD Party Polled Better Than Predicted in High Migration Areas

With Germany preparing for a rerun of September’s inconclusive election, a new study carried out by social scientists has rejected the notion widely supported by politicians and commentators in mainstream media, that the anti-mass migration, Eurosceptic party Alternative for Germany (AfD), now the third largest grouping the the German national assembly only did well in homogenous-German areas. The survey produced results showing that contrary to liberal expectations the party polled strongly in high migration areas.

The people who derided AfD voters as Little Deutschlanders, NIMBYs and Xenophobes seemed quite sure that people who lived in areas where illiterate, lawless migrants roamed the streets showing their contempt for German laws, people and civilised standards of behaviour would see the benefits of such cultural enrichment and supported parties that wanted to bring more uneducated, unmannered and unemployable immigrants to Germany.

The study, which was carried out by the Jena Institute for Democracy and Civil Society and commissioned by the far-left Amadeu Antonio Foundation, shows that AfD voters come from a variety of backgrounds including affluent middle-class voters, Die Welt reports.

One of the biggest shocks for the researchers was that the data refuted many of the assumptions on what sort of people voted for the AfD in September’s national election. Many had assumed the average AfD voter was a low-income East German living in an area relatively unaffected by mass migration.

According to the data, the number of AfD voters per capita in high migrant areas is much larger than previously expected, though the researchers claim the information is too broad to make any direct conclusions.

This aligns with similar studies of Brexit voters in Britain. While the chatterati and twatterati were sure Brexit voters were all old, poorly educated, xenophobes and racists, who only vioted against EU membership through fear, analysis showed a wide cross section of society opposed continued involvement with the EU, mostly for well thoughgt out reasons, while the Remainers choice was more likely to be based on emotions and all-join-handa-and-sing-Kumbaya style sentimentality.

The rise of Germany’s AfD on the federal level has occurred in parallel with that of the far-right National Democratic Party (NPD)  the study claims. In areas where the NPD did well in 2013, the AfD also showed very strong results.

One example given is the Sächsische Schweiz/Osterzgebirge constituency where the NPD scored 5 percent in 2013 and the AfD scored 35.5 percent in September. In this year’s national election the far-right NPD scored only 0.4 percent of the vote.

The AfD also did well in areas with low voter turnouts in 2013 like the Bavarian town of Deggendorf which saw an abstention rate of 39.6 percent in 2013 and an AfD vote of 19.2 percent this year.

After the failure of the “Jamaica” coalition talks between Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the libertarian Free Democrats (FDP) and the extreme left Greens, make a new election almost inevitable, recent polls show that the AfD is likely to gain as many as 19 or more seats in a new election while the CDU vote is projected to shrink even further.

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