May Will Offer Her Brexit Dire Deal For A 4th Vote because She Has No Plan B

After the Easter recess, the UK Parliament is back at work today and Brexit-related news is back in the headlines. Nothing has changed since May struck an agreement with the EU for a six-month extension of Article 50, which the EU made conditional on The Prime Minister getting her Brexit-In-Name-Only treaty accepted by British lawmakers before elections to the European Parliament in May.

Talks with tho opposition Labour Party, aimed at finding an alternative to Mrs May’s Brexit deal remain deadlocked with Labour’s insistence on a second referendum the biggest obstacle. Though the Tory and Labour representatives resumed talks on Tuesday, widely cirulated rumours suggest the talks could fall apart in the coming days.

Whatever happens with the talks is of little irrelevance because the EU has been clear that the withdrawal agreement (suspected to have ben drafted by Angela Merkel because of its one sidedness,) is the only deal it will accept. That deal has already been thrown out three times by The British House of Commons. Though the margin of defeat has shrunk in each successive vote it is still substantial. So long as the Irish Backstop, the section which would keep Norther Ireland tied to the EU while mainland Britain left, remains the immovable object blocking the deal’s progress it’s unlikely that May will be able to win over enough Brexiteers to push the deal through.

MayTheresa May looks as if she is about to throw up after hearing the latest Brexit – Picture: Zero Hedge

With few viable alternatives apart from another extension and another and another, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, surprising absolutely no one, that May, now if not recognised as the most stupid, arrogant, stupid politician ever, surely a contender, is preparing to bring the virtually unaltered withdrawal agreement back for a fourth vote.

Just like the third vote, May will need to embrace some procedural maneuvers to satisfy Speaker Bercow’s condition that the deal must be “substantially different” than prior votes if May wants to bring it back. This time, the withdrawal agreement will come packaged in a more far-reaching withdrawal agreement bill.

And a vote could come as soon as next week.

Downing Street sources suggest a fourth vote on May’s bill could be the last chance to avoid Britain’s participating in the upcoming elections to the EU Parliament, something May had desperately sought to avoid and which would result in the anihilation of the Conservative Party bloc in the European Parliament.

If , as is probable,the bill is defeated again May would be prohibited from bringing it back for another vote until a new session of parliament begins in November.  We guess May, ever a fanatical supporter of the EU and globalism, would stubbornly try to find some kind of procedural loophole to keep bringing her deal back and keep Britain in the EU until opposition evaporates from sher fatigue.

Even if it should eventually manage to pass the Commons, there are still procedural hurdles to negotiate before Brexit could be officially delivered. The Daily Telegraph reports:

The treaty the bill is intended to implement includes provisions such as the UK’s £39bn exit payment to the EU, protection of citizens’ rights, a transition period and the so-called backstop to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. If the legislation is rejected, as currently seems likely, the government could not reintroduce it again in this session of parliament.

“It would be quite a big thing,” admitted one ally of Mrs May. In those circumstances the bill could only be brought back if the current parliamentary session was ended.

Approval for the legislation would kick off a tortuous passage through parliament during which the bill could be amended. Attempts to add a customs union or a second referendum would be expected. Even if the bill did eventually become law, Downing Street said there would still have to be a separate “meaningful vote” on Mrs May’s deal under the terms of 2018 Brexit legislation. However, that would be expected to be a formality if MPs have already approved the bill to put the draft treaty into effect.

Whatever happens, May’s deal, along with May herself, may soon become a footnote in history. That’s because, as the Telegraph reported,  Sir Graham Brady, the leader of the influential 1922 Committee of Conservative members with no official government position, is planning to confront the boss on Tuesday and demand that she sets a date for her resignation or the party’s members will change the leadership rules to allow her to be ousted (after surviving a no confidence vote late last year, May is immune from further challenges for a year under the current rules).

Other prominent Conservatives, including Nigel Evans,  member for Ribble Valley (where I live though I didn’t vote for him,) have called on May to resign immediately.

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Liberal Democrats suspend candidate for failing to support homophobia, rape, wife beating and FGM

The Liberal Democrats, if they were honest, ought to rebrand themselves The Liberal Hypocrites. After 30 years screeching in sheer horror about the way civilised societies treat women, homosexuals, criminals, and the absolute refusal of some immigrant groups to even tolerate let alone integrate with the laws and customs of liberal democracies. In short The Liberal Hypocrites have joied those political factions that, in an orgy of virtue signalling, have placed Islam beyond honest criticism. All the things the Liberal Hypocrites claim to hate in European and American societies are OK, or even to be celebrated when followers of Islam do them.

from Jihad Watch

However Dániel Tóth-Nagy doesn’t get it. The leaders of the Liberal Democrats, however, do get it: Islam is now supreme in Britain. The human rights abuses that are committed in accord with Sharia directives are never to be questioned. To question them is to render oneself “Islamophobic” and beyond the realm of acceptable discourse. Dániel Tóth-Nagy is claiming that he was simply exercising his “freedom of expression.” How quaint! There is no “freedom of expression” in Britain anymore. There is only Sharia-compliant refraining from all criticism of Islam, or else ostracism and vilification. Laggers such as Dániel Tóth-Nagy will learn the new rules before too long.

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Is The Brexit Fiasco A Deep State Stitch Up?

by Barney Lane, posted on Quora

I think of “deep state” as being about the behind the scenes machinery of government; the inner workings of the civil service and secret negotiations of politicians.

In this piece, I argue that yes, the deep state has played its part, but the main issue is the weakness and susceptibility of our Prime Minister, to manipulation. In short, May has been soft and pliable with the EU, who know her as “Mrs No until she says Yes”, while being infuriatingly stubborn with her own party and country.

To start with, let’s consider what we know. For me, these are the relevant facts:

Leave won the 2016 referendum, Cameron resigned, the Tories appointed Theresa May as leader and Theresa May said she would deliver Brexit

Theresa May lost her majority in the 2017 General Election, meaning she would have to depend on the votes of all her own MPs plus those of the DUP to get legislation through

Theresa May sacked her advisers Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, effectively replacing them with Olly Robbins, a civil servant. Shortly afterwards, she dropped DExEU from having a lead role in the exit negotiations, putting Olly Robbins in charge

Theresa May’s first notable move in the negotiations proper, was to accept without a fight, the EU’s sequencing demands. This was a major surprise. Notes of the meeting showed the EU delegation acting both surprised and delighted. Minutes show EU officials asking for reconfirmation that this was really the UK’s position

In late 2017, Theresa May allowed talk of remaining in the customs union to resurface, doing nothing to clarify the government’s policy, which was to leave the customs union

In December 2017, Theresa May signed a political agreement giving away £39 billion and signed us up to a “backstop” that would commit the UK to remaining under EU control until it had found a way of managing the customs border in Ireland, in a way that satisfied the EU

When the political declaration was converted into legal text, Theresa May said “no British PM could sign this”. This was the only thing of note, that Theresa May said about Brexit in the first half of 2018. She later did sign it

In mid-2018, Theresa May faced a backbench rebellion attempting to force legislation to keep us in the customs union. Theresa May invited the ringleader Dominic Grieve to Downing Street to persuade him to drop his rebellion. It is understood that she made him privy to a plan that was at this stage, not widely known. Dominic Grieve promptly dropped his rebellion

In July 2018, Theresa May held the Chequers summit where she unveiled the Brexit whitepaper. She told her government, the meeting would not end until everyone had agreed to it and if anyone resigned, ministerial transport would not be available for the trip home

The whitepaper horrified some ministers, who believed it amounted to a customs union in all but name. Boris Johnson resigned. David Davis resigned

In his resignation speech, Davis criticised May for sidelining his department, which had been set up to prepare the UK for its departure from the EU, while instead favouring her own civil service adviser Olly Robbins

In replying, Theresa May said Davis’s department had not come up with a workable plan

In an article in the Telegraph, Davis replied that this was deeply disingenuous. His department had a detailed and carefully worked out plan. It was she, the PM who had chosen to ignore it while developing her own alternative plan without telling anyone

Johnson wrote in the Telegraph, that Theresa May had allowed the Ireland border to become prominent in the negotiations because she had unquestioningly accepted the EU’s framing of the issue and had not even tried to find a solution

Come December 2018, the EU published their Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It was very similar to the Chequers whitepaper, except that it lacked the May/Robbins scheme for the UK collecting tariffs on behalf of the EU. The WA’s political declaration sought a future relationship that would build upon “the single customs territory”

Minutes of the meeting where Theresa May signed the WA showed that the EU had said “The customs union will be the basis for the future relationship. The EU will retain all control”. Theresa May had signed a document that she knew the EU interpreted as implying a permanent customs union, and in which the EU would retain full control

The WA was voted down three times by Parliament. Most notably, it was voted down by Brexit-supporting MPs who believed it was “not Brexit” and by the DUP who believed it had sold out their territory

The Brady amendment gave Theresa May a mandate to renegotiate the Ireland backstop, which keeps the UK in a customs union with the EU until the EU approves the UK’s plans for managing the border

May largely ignored this mandate, saying she would not attempt a renegotiation but instead, half-heartedly said she would “seek changes”

On the basis of the above, it is reasonable to conclude that the main reason Brexit (in this incarnation) has failed, is that Theresa May changed course. While her general stance was initially to the liking of Brexit supporting MPs, her final deal, was not.

Having lost her majority in parliament, she inevitably had to work harder to reconcile the interests of her MPs, who had different opinions. However, it is clear from the above that at each node of the decision tree, she leaned towards her remainer MPs. She didn’t tell anyone this was what she was doing or why, she just did it.

Her eventual WA was a death by a thousand cuts, non-Brexit Brexit. But what happened to make her change course? That’s the key question.

By any standard, her behaviour in office has been extraordinary. Consider where the Tories were at the start. Dominic Lawson wrote about this in the Sunday Times, this morning in Brexit on a plate — and the Tories blew it. [1]

Only two years ago the Tories were united under the firm but fair leadership of the headmistressy Theresa May, Farage had been rendered irrelevant and Labour was still riven by the shock of a referendum outcome that pitted it against the very people (the industrial working class) it was formed to represent.

Thus, in February 2017, this column was headlined “Cheer Up, Mr Cameron, you won your party the greatest prize imaginable”. The former PM was being ridiculed almost daily, and yet, I argued, while the referendum result had trashed his reputation as a political winner, he was actually the accidental author of a miraculous transformation in his party’s fortunes: “Unintentionally, Cameron has achieved for the Conservatives something a string of earlier leaders signally failed to do. He has made them the party that is united over the vexed question of the UK’s relationship with the European Union and — a completely unexpected bonus — turned Labour into a house divided on this issue.”

That aged well, didn’t it? In fact the second half of that analysis still holds true and explains Labour’s continuing inability to come up with a Brexit policy that could be communicated coherently (or at all) on an election leaflet. But that column was written at the moment of the party’s greatest discomfiture, the week after parliament passed the bill to invoke article 50 — giving us just two years (ha!) to negotiate our departure from the EU. Corbyn’s three-line whip ordering his MPs to back the government’s policy led to resignations from the shadow cabinet and thousands of party members quitting in protest.

The reason Theresa May’s behaviour has been so extraordinary is that she did not need to lean towards Remain in her implementation of Brexit. The Tories were united around a clean Brexit. That was the referendum result. That was what the manifesto said. It could not have been clearer. Even those who did not agree with the result of the referendum, accepted both it and the government’s interpretation of it.

When murmurings about a “softening” of Brexit started to emerge, May could have acted to silence them, reminding her MPs of their manifesto commitments, but she did not. From a parliamentary arithmetic point of view, it was far easier for her to lean towards her Brexiteer contingent than her Remain contingent. Leaning towards her Brexiteers would not have angered her Remainers as much as leaning towards her Remainers have angered her Brexiteers. All she needed to do was to maintain existing party policy, to which all her MPs had explicitly agreed by standing for election upon its manifesto.

What happened? Theresa May is well known as someone who can be “captured” by her advisers. Who were her advisers? Before the 2017 election, her advisers were Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill — both clean Brexit advocates. After the election, her advisers were Olly Robbins and — as far as one can tell — the EU. In the past 2 years, May has spent many hours in the offices of her fellow European leaders.

Now, there’s an element of deep state at work here. An anonymous civil servant wrote an article in the Telegraph titled “Believe me, the Civil Service is trying to sink Brexit. I have seen it from the inside”[2] He or she writes:

A quick scroll though the social media accounts of my colleagues and you will find images of them proudly waving ‘Remain’ placards, campaigning for a ‘People’s Vote’, boasting ‘Jez we can’ and of course the usual apocalyptic messages of doom since the Brexit vote. The double-standards are astonishing. If I so much as followed the activities of Nigel Farage, I have no doubt that I would be called in for questioning. I re-call one conversation with a senior member of staff at the Foreign Office who told me she was ashamed when Boris Johnson was appointed Foreign Secretary as he is so “typically British”.

This department is particularly notorious for its anti-Brexit bias. My experience tells me that there is a genuine hatred of those who voted for Brexit. I recall my first day in the Civil Service as a graduate, being invited to a meeting of senior members of staff who spent the good part of two hours in agreement that the public made a “stupid” decision in the EU referendum.

Unfortunately, this bias doesn’t end with snide insults and childish quips. It goes to the root of their day-to-day work and has truly negative impacts on the way we conduct the important tasks ahead of us. I have in fact come across senior staff working on our post-Brexit relationships who openly talk down the prospect of a UK-US FTA and encourage anti-Trump hysteria. Many of them even joined the protests against the President’s visit last year. During his visit it was common to hear jokes about Trump’s assassination from the very people meant to be working with our closest ally. The only thing worse than being pro-Brexit in the Civil Service is being pro-Trump.

But it doesn’t stop there. There is a strong presence of Anglophobia, combined with cultural Marxism that runs through the civil service. It has meant that many Civil Servants, including myself, have been actively discouraged from co-operating with Think Tanks which are seen as being “too right wing” despite sharing our goal of promoting free trade. This attitude also prevails in our work with our closest allies, particularly in the Commonwealth, where we are afraid to be seen as overly keen to work with countries that are run by “rich white men”.

Contrary to popular belief, Civil Servants often shape the views of Ministers. This makes the prevalent leftist culture within the Civil Service all the more concerning. These ardent remainer and left wing civil servants are the ones who provide the briefings, select the invites and choose the priorities for Ministers. How did we get to this point? The Civil Service is one of the biggest graduate employers, whilst universities have allowed a leftist culture of political correctness to flourish in recent decades.

Brexit is the greatest opportunity this country has faced in years, yet our Government machine is currently working from within to frustrate it. This must not go on. In the next phase of the Brexit negotiations it is vital our civil service ceases to allow the massive remain voting bias that has so far helped scupper our post-Brexit future.

Add to that the misuse of Treasury resources for giving misleading information about the economic consequences of Brexit — resources that were refused to other departments requesting them for no-deal preparations — and it’s clear there’s an element of deep state at work. However, it is the weakness and stubbornness of our Prime Minister, that is the most important part of the explanation.

It’s like a disease. If you’re unhealthy and have a weakened immune system, you are more susceptible to diseases. For most healthy people, flu can be an unpleasant few days in bed. For weakened people, it can be a killer.

That the civil service has worked to frustrate Brexit is both credible and predictable. However, it is the Prime Minister’s susceptibility to it, that has led to the failure of her attempt to deliver Brexit.

Footnotes

[1] Brexit on a plate — and the Tories blew it

[2] Believe me, the Civil Service is trying to sink Brexit. I have seen it from the inside

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