Disastrous Manufacturing Figure Herald German Economic Recession

Germany has long been the prop that held up the economically feeble EU, in which more than helf the 27 members that will remain in the bloc after Britain leaves are economic basket cases (some due only to the strictures of Eurozone membership, others because of the traditional weakness of their national economies,) so with Germany slipping towards the recession we and other well informed blogs and news site have predicted since Merkel’s ‘open doors’ immigration policy allowed a couple of million iliterate, uneducated, unskilled and unemployable immigrants to flood into the country, incresing the bill for welfare services exponentially, problems for Germany’s high – tech manufacturing led economy which needs highly skilled, well educated and adaptable workers and professionals was inevitable.

When we wrote about the early signs of recession in the German economy we were scoffed at, called far – right nut jobs and conspiracy theorists, and inevitably, racists because anyone but a racist would know that a couple of millon unemployable immigrants living on benefits can only boost a high – tech economy.

Today, for all the auusurances by Europhile politicians and bureaucrats that everything in the European Union is on the up and up, Germany is on red alert for recession following the biggest collapse in activity for its mighty industrial sector since the financial crisis. Technically Germany already is in recession, they’re just not willing to admit it.

The eurozone’s bigge,t and most powerful economy relies on exports but its car industry has been punished by a slowing global economy,   government policies promoting electric vehichles which nobody want to buy because they are hideously expensive and useless, and the fallout of the trade war between the US and China.

Financial information service IHS Markit’s latest snapshot of Germany’s manufacturing growth – where a score under 50 signals contraction – dipped to 41.4, its worst level since 2009, as demand from non – EU trading partners slumped. There were also worrying signs that the manufacturing slump is spreading to the service sector after firms in that sector experience their first fall in new business since 2014.

Confidence among German businesses is the weakest since 2012, private sector job creation is stalling after six years of growth and companies are eating into backlogs as new orders begin to dry up, the figures showed.

Germany’s economy shrank an overall 0.1pc between April and June. Monday’s dire survey data comes after recent official figures showed a sharp 0.6pc drop in industrial production in July.

Phil Smith, principal economist at IHS Markit, said Germany’s manufacturing data was “simply awful”, with combined readings for services and manufacturers “firmly in contraction territory” and the weakest for almost seven years.

MORE on GermanyEurope
The Daily Stirrer
 

Cracks In EU Unity Facade Are Beginning To Show

Coincidental with the bizarre events in the UK’s Supreme Coirt, where judges tried to usurp the power of parliament to themselves in a globaloist bid to stop Brexit, the economic situation in Europe, which as we have reported many times is dire, has entered into a critical period.  With one of the two net contributors o the EU treasury about to leave,Germany, which for decades has propped up the bloc financially as more and more economic basket cases were absorbed into Brussels’ wannabe empire, has stumbled into if not actually a recession then something very like one

Year on Year (YoY) growth in the German economy, from July 2018, July 2019 is 0.4% – what you would expect in the middle of a depression, and significantly less than the official inflation rate (while the real rate of inflation is, predictably, higher still. UK growth figures are slightly better coming in at 1.2%. Poor old Italy recorded a GDP growth of -0.1% YoY, (that’s a minus sign by the way).

Italy has a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 132% and finally France with a growth rate of 1.4% and a debt-to-GDP of 97% is effectively broke. That’s the big four in the EU/Eurozone.

So, the biggest economies in EU/Eurozone have a growth rate ranging from -0.1% to 1.4%. Oh, and I almost forgot negative interest rates are now becoming the norm in The Eurozon and 85% of German Bunds are non-performing and/or at negative interest rates.

Inexplicably the ECB is getting geared up for another round of QE, which means that the euro is going to be devalued. Of course, the Americans aren’t going to be best pleased with this turn of events but doubling down on the policy that failed is par for the course with the EU. Only a few years ago they decided the way to resolve the problem of mass immigration was ………… more mass immigration, and are currently proposing more politicalintegration of member states to counter the resurgence in nationalism triggered by …………….. wait for it ………………. forcing political integration on member states.

By failing to support US trade tariffs on nations that have pissed off Washington, the EU has involved itself peripherally in the US tade war with the world. but this can onlu=y increase problems. Germany in its present economic travails, and lined up to take the biggest economic hit from Brexit, is not going to welcome any increased costs for its export industries.

Most importantly this includes the cost of the raw material essential to Germany’s manufacturing/export sector. Natural Gas and oil are piped to Germany from Russia and the construction the of Nordstream 2 pipeline, which the US wants to alt to put Putin in his place, is crucial to the German economy. America wants to force Germany to buy more expensive, less reliable, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) by taking alternative suppliers out of the picture and is threatening to impose sanctions on any company and/or state to get their own way.

GERMANY’S ENTSCHEIDUNGSZEIT (DECISION TIME)

This is a clearly a case of “deja vu all over again” and a moment of truth for the Germans. Do they do what the Americans tell them, which would be economic suicide, or will they pursue their national interests and give Uncle Sam the finger. This was precisely the setting in 1985 though with Japan then the object of US financial and economic destabilisation.

The Plaza Accord was a joint-agreement, signed on 22 September 1985, at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, between France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, to devalue the U.S. dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Mark. The resulting recessionary impact which pushed up the value of the Yen against the dollar in Japan’s export-dependent economy.

This created an incentive for the expansionary monetary policies that led to the Japanese investment bubble of the late 1980s. The Plaza Accord triggered the Japanese asset price bubble, which progressed into a protracted period of deflation and low growth in Japan known as the first Lost Decade. Has Germany, and by implication Europe learned the lesson one wonders?

Bearing this in mind it should also be noted that Germany is a big investor in Russia.

RELATED POSTS:
Europe
Europe Unglues

Germany
Europe’s Nationalists Unite Behind Salvini Ahead Of EU Elections
Yanis Varoufakis warns EU disintegration is coming
Germany slips into economic meltdown as US-China trade war escalates

Russia Warns Attack On Saudi Oil Plant Will Hit Fuel Prices

 saudi-oil-fire
World’s largest oil refinery ablaze after Houthi rebels drone strike (picture: Screen grab from Sky News video )

Following the drone attack by Yemeni rebels on a major Saudi Arabian oil processing plant, The Kremlin’s warned that the loss of production from the stricken plant will destabilise oil prices worldwide.  This follows statements by the European Union and the UK condemning the Houthi drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities carried out on Saturday (14 September, 2019).

While President Trump made belligerent noises, guaranteed to provoke the rebels Shia Muslim supporters in Iran , Russian President Vladimir Putin has simply asked to b kept up to date on developments in the wake of two drone attacks on the major Saudi energy facilities.  Russia believes such incidents will not contribute to the stabilisation of the global energy market, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said. It is safe to assume Russia’s leaders see the incident as an opportunity to benefit from higher crude oil prices.

“The drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure are an alarming event for the oil markets…Of course, such turbulence does not contribute to the stabilisation of the energy market,” Peskov said.

According to Peskov, the Saudi side has not appealed to Russia for assistance in the wake of the attacks, and probably has the necessary capacity to deal with the disruption on their own. “We don’t know whether they need help, but it’s unlikely. They have all the necessary capabilities themselves,” he said.

Peskov said the Kremlin “strongly condemned” Saturday’s incident, if it could be confirmed that the Saudi Aramco facilities were attacked by drones. (He would say that, wouldn’t he?)

EU, UK, France Condemn Attacks

Earlier on Sunday morning, the European Union’s foreign policy office issued a statement condemning the drone attacks, which, the statement read, posed a “real threat” of escalation of the Saudi – Yemeni conflict into full scale war between two regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and adding that “at a time when tensions in the region are running high, this attack undermines ongoing work at de-escalation and dialogue.” Brussels stands in solidarity with Saudi authorities and the Saudi people, the statement noted.

The UK Foreign Office also condemned the attack in diplomatic terms although certain people in The Treasury must have been rubbing their hands with glee as it becomes economically viable to reopen many North Sea rigs if Brent Crude goes above $80. China too would not be disappointed as Saudi Arabia is a long term ally of the USA, while the smaller oil producers most likely to benefit from the Saudi outage are more friendly to The People’s Republic in its bid to establish the petroyuan as a rival to the Petrodollar for cross border oil trades.

We have reported many times on the merciless bombing of the impoverished Shia Muslim state of Yemen. The conflict started when rebels tried to depose the Saudi – friendly regime and spawned a huge humanitarian crisis which was barely reported in mainstream media, as Saudi air strikes targeted roads, water supplies, sewage systems, hospitals and ports.

Predictably, news of the attack drove financial and commodity traders traders into a collective panic as global markets reopened after the weekend break, with with commodity traders desperately trying to calculate what the upper limit per barrel of oil prices would be (the previous record of $1.09 might hold when markets realise that while Saudi Arabia is still the world’s second biggest producer it is not as dominant as it once was, having been passed by the USA in 2018, and if the Kingdom and Iran decide to neutralise each other, Russia, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, the nations of the Caspian region, Nigeria , Mexico and a host od smaller oil producing nations will be happy to pump more once higher prices make production economically viable. When brent (the highest grade of crude,) reopened for trading in the aftermath of Saturday’s attack on the “world’s most important oil processing plant“, the price immediately exploded to around 20% higher than at close of business on Friday, to a high of $71.95 from the Friday $60.22 close, its biggest jump since 1988.

The hit to stability of supplies will exceed the loss of Iranian oil output in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution, according to data from the U.S. Department of Energy. It will also be worse than the loss of Iraqi and Kuwaiti production in 1990 when Saddam Hussein decided to annex Kuwait and add it to his empire and saw most of the oil infrastructure of both nations destroyed in the ensuing war.

News that the Saudi outage could last for months, rather that the weeks initially predicted suggest this could be just the start. Even if there are no more attacks on Saudi facilities or retaliation by the Saudis on Iran, the supply problem will not be be clear right away. The Saudis can still deliver from reserves for a few weeks but if the outage runs to months as industry sources are now predicting, we can expect crude prices to keep rising until there is relable evidence that output will be restored.

 

RELATED POSTS:

Yemen’s brutal civil war slips into its fourth year

Saudi Arabia Condemns UN Report On Yemen War Crimes

Saudi coalition attacks Yemen’s lifeline port of Hodeidah

US Aiding Massive Genocide in Yemen at Behest of Saudi Arabia


Libya, Syria, Yemen: Sectarian conflict threatens entire Middle East


Libya, Syria, Yemen: Sectarian conflict threatens entire Middle East


It’s Time to End The West’s Role in ‘Worst Humanitarian Crisis on the Planet’

Green Hysteria Is Destroying German Economy

Car making is Germany’s biggest earner (picture: Wikimedia commons)

This blog has reported many times that the mighty German economy is heading into trouble because it’s political elite, led by wannabe saint Angela Merkel is more concerned with climate change scaremongering and importing millions of illiterate, unemployable their world migrants in an orgy of virtue signalling.

The bigest single industrial sector in the German economy, automobile manufacturing, currently acts as the real engine driving the country’s economy, but as taxes rse to support a burgeoning welfare bill, and sales plummet due to the pomotion of expensive, inefficient and, it has to be said, incredibly dirty electric cars, it looks as if the situation may be in fora dramatic change for the worse according to new report from economists Matthias Weik and Marc Friedrich in a commentary at the online news portal of the (German Midsize Companies News – DMN).

This blog would not normally advise readers to take not of economists’ speculations but in this case their conclusions coincide with the opinions of a number of hard headed businessmen who see trouble ahead for the economic powerhouse that propos up the European Union.

Weik and Friedrich base their view of the economic direction of the German economy and how it is seriously threatened by the country’s obsession with climate considerations based on very dodgy science, and an irrational policy of opening the borders to all arrivals from third world nations, and how policymakers are neglecting key industries on evidence that Germany’s ruling elite are unduly influenced by certain left leaning academics whose thinking is heavily influenced by the so called Cultural Marxism of The Frankfurt Schoool of twentieth century econopmics.

Weik and Friedrich say German politicians have been naive and too easily influenced by noisy minorities and attention seeking scientists and  in their panic to save the planet from an alleged climate meltdown have, in the process of ruined the German economy.

“Everybody is talking about the climate, yet no one is talking about the economic climate,” Weik and Friedrich say. in common with many investment managers and industrialists, the two economists warn of a coming recession, one that will be “hard as nails” as the green activist and Social Justice Warrior onslaught on western, and particularly German industry intensifies.

According to the Weik and Friedrich, already “the seasonally adjusted and real order intake of German industry fell by 8.6 percent compared to the same month last year! For the tenth month in a row, it is going down!” So while the government and the Bundesbank juggle figures frantically, in fact Germany is already technically in recession. (The usual measure for growth / recession is GDP but when a government pumps €billions into the economy so it can hand out massive benefits to immigrants, which they spend in the economy, the resulting ‘growth’ is illusory.

“Companies such as Deutsche Bank, BASF, Bayer, Siemens, Thyssen, Ford have begun “massive job cuts or announced plans to do so in anticipation of the hard times ahead.”

The authors say that words, such as “unemployment” and “layoffs”, will soon be dominating the media and that “no one will talk about the shortage of skilled workers anymore, let alone climate change”.

The consequences of a major recession in manufacturing would send economic shock waves not through Germany but also throughout the European Union (EU) which massively relies on revenues generated by the German automotive industry, as has been well documented for years.

Weik and Friedrich write that Germany’s green and globalist policies have “negligently gambled away” prosperity and that the “coming climate change in the economy will nip all irrelevant sham debates in the bud.”

They add: “The heated discussions and hysteria are a sign of the famous late Roman decadence and a warning sign of the crash. For many who demonstrate today, there will be no jobs in Germany tomorrow.”

RELATED POSTS:
More on Germany
Germany: Economy crisis a growth stalls – car production crashes
Germany’s Green Energy Flops While Global Fossil Fuels Boom…
Europe index
Jobs and employment
Economy, sustainability
German economic crisis: industrial output plunges to ‘disaster’ level

 

While Eco Loons Worship Fairies, Reality Exposes Real Cause Of Amazonian Fires

/

While Pippi Longstocking lokalike and eco – activist wunderkind Greta Thurnberg is schlepping her climate change schtick round New York, preaching her net zero carbon emissions gospel after crossing the Atlantic in a ‘zero emissions’ superyacht made of carbon fibre, a material which in its manufacture produces shitloads more carbon emissions than my or your car or even my brother’s V8 Range Rover will in their entire useful lives,) back home the Extinction Rebellion wankers have been getting their knickers in a twist about some fires (allegedly wildfires until it was reported they are started deliberately and are not destroying the rainforest, but areas of former forest now cleared for cultivation.

The farmers, many of whom are engaged in the production of organic food for vegans in the west while others are growing seed crops for making ‘clean, green, biodiesel to power cars and industry, are carrying on the ancient practice of burning last year’s stubble to clear the ground of pests, fungi and other things not conducive to high yields, but the univerrsity brainwashed millennials of the ‘woke’ left, the Liberal virtue signallers and the pig-tailed Thunberg alomg with her vast horde of worshippers are unaware of this and seemingly don’t want to know. How is it possible that about half the Western white population have the intellectual capacity of lobotomized lobsters?

Listen to their current endless whining about the forest fires in Brazil and the Left’s shameless lies about drought and rising temperatures and you might end up beliebing that climate change has caused them.

However the cause of these fires is most cetrainly not climate change, though it is the work of humans as described above. The fires are being set by Brazilians and are an annual occurrence. The reason there’s been such an upturn in the amount of fires is because the demand from consumers on the virtue signalling west for organic food keeeps rising. Similar deforestation is occurring in Africa, Indonesia, the Malay Peninsula, Thailand Myanmar and India.

In 2017 Brazil exported US$872 million worth of organic food to the West.

The problem for Brazilian farmers is that in growing organic food they are unable to use a wide range of pesticides and other safe products that keep diseases and pests at bay. This leads to them being unable to grow enough produce on their plots of land to make an acceptable living. For example, on a hundred acres of land with the use of pesticides a farmer can produce X tonnage of produce. But on the same hundred acres of land with organic farming—minus the use of pesticides—the amount of crops produced fall dramatically.

This means that the farmer who has switched from regular farming to organic farming needs to put more land to the plough to make ends meet, and he has to switch because the Big Food cartel buyers in the West won’t buy his product unless it’s organic and fair trade and all that leftie bullshit that makes lefties feel good about themselves but does not benefit the small farmers of the world one iota. In Brazil the only way the farmers can increase the land they can cultivate, unless they are lucky enough to own tranches of virging rainforest which they can clear legally by bribing a local official, or by more intensive cultivation which means getting rid of crop destroying fungi, the egg staches of leaf eating insects and the nests of small furry animals without using fungicides, herbicides or poisons which would cost them their organic producer status.

It must also be said that a lot of the current fires in Brazil also result from the demand in the West for bio-fuel (sic). Across the 3rd World governments and corporate food producers are clearing forests and woodland in order to meet demand for this most wasteful of fuels.

It’s just another instance where the Western Liberal idiots believe they are improving the climate and environment and the lot of the third world’s poor but in actual fact are doing enormous damage to them both and helping globalist governments and global corporations increase their power and the level of control they exercise over peoople’s lives, while indulging in orgies of virtue signalling. Stupid is as stupid does.

The intellectual idiots in the West, the opinion makers who have led the outraged screeching about the fires across Brazil are actually responsible for most of them being started in the first place. Scientific and economic theories about food prouction and distribution have favoured corporate business over independent farmers and family run small and middle sized enerprises in the food processing and distribution industry.

Would the Liberal halfwits in the West face up to this and admit they, with their whack Cultural Marxist ideas, are responsible for crerating much of the mess the world is in. To put it bluntly, there’s not a fucking chance of these paskudniaks ever taking responsibility for anything.

RELATED POSTS:
facekless corporations
Black Hat Biotech
Globalisation of serfdom

Other Places to find Greenteeth publications:
[ The Original Boggart Blog] … [ Writerbeat ] … [ Daily Stirrer.shtml ]…[Little Nicky Machiavelli]… [ Ian’s Authorsden Pages ]… [ It’s Bollocks My Dears, All Bollocks ] … [ Minds ] … [ <a href=https://medium.com/@greenboggartIan on Medium ] … [Scribd]…[Wikinut] … [ Boggart Abroad] … [ Grenteeth Bites ] … [ Latest Posts ] [Ian Thorpe at Flickr ] … [Latest Posts] … [ Tumblr ] … [ Authorsden blog ] … [Daily Stirrer Headlines]
[ Ian at Facebook ]

EU Talks Tough But George Galloway Exposes Their Bluff

George Galloway is a man I suspect most people here have little time for but from time to time he does talk sense and he’s certainly on target with his latest comments on Brext, which concern leaked information from Berlin that suggest the German government’s tough talk about not reopening negotiations with the UK to reach a more reasonable deal are just bluff. Galloway says that in private German politicians and business leaders are saying the EU needs a deal as much as the UK, if not more. This aligns with what I’m hearing from other sources in The City, in politics and in the EU. Let’s hope if it comes down to a High Noon type face off, Boris is playing Gary Cooper.

EU may talk tough, but it needs Brexit deal as much as UK – Galloway on German leaks — RT UK News

Both sides may try to seem tough ahead of Brexit talks, but the EU needs the deal as much as the UK, George Galloway said in reference to leaks claiming that Germany is reluctant to renegotiate an agreement with Britain.

MORE ON BREXIT
Posts on Germany

German economic crisis: industrial output plunges to ‘disaster’ level -other economic data revised down

This news site and our sister publication Original Boggart Blog have spent three years arguing logically and reasonably against the emotionally overwrought ravings of people who supported ‘Remain’ in the 2016 EU referendum and cannot accept they lost. Brexit will be a catastrophe, they scream, people will starve, we wil have no medicines or toilet rolls, no food or water or beer or anything, toilets will explode and spew boiling sewage and blood into our homes, aircraft will fall out of the sky, clocks will run backwards and our nostrils will be assailed by wet dog smelss because no nation of a mere 60 million people can survive outside the EU.

And those of us stubborn enough to pick up the gauntlet have pointed out that Canada (30 millonish) Australia (20someting million, New Zealand (more sheep than people,) and the 85% of the world’s nations that are not EU members seem to do OK. And then we have backed up our assertions with evendence that since the referendum was won by Leave predictions of economic collapse for britain have failed to materialise, while for most EU nations, stagnation is turning into recession. The latest evidence for this is another news item showing the mighty German economy, on which the EU has always depended and will depend even more once the UK leaves, is running into trouble.

Yesterday (6 August 2019) it was announced that industrial production in Germany dropped by a greater degree than expected in June, showing a 1.5% month on month decrease, thus compounding fears that Europe’s biggest economy is facing an imminent recession.

Output fell 5.2 per cent year on year from June 2018, the German national statistics office revealed on. According to Reuters, analysts had estimated output would fall 0.4 per cent during the month compared with May. Production, excluding energy and construction, was down 1.8 per cent.

These figures from Destatis come only a day after the same source revealed that factory orders, driven by an increase in demand from countries outside the eurozone, were higher than expected. While those figures offered a glimmer of hope among a plethora of bad news for EU economies and particularly for Europe’s economic powerhouse, business analysts pointed out that new orders have dropped by an average of 0.7 per cent every month throughout this year.

June’s decline in output “kills off any hopes that the strong orders data published yesterday marked the beginning of a recovery”, said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. “Business surveys uniformly point to a further contraction in July, so things look set to get worse rather than better.”

Other economic data published this week included revised down figures for services that showed the sector in Germany had grown at a slower rate in July than had been earlier thought, prompting fears that the eurozone’s biggest economy is heading into a recession.

German website Handelsblatt commented: “If both sides remain stubborn, this can jeopardise the stability of the financial markets.

Concerns that the industrial output drop exacerbates long – standing fears over German economy first appeared on The Financial Times website. That such concerns are being expressed by serious economics writers in a heavyweight publication like The Financial Times exposes the level of scaremongering based on fake news that hasd been used in the Brexit debate by those determined to overturn the result and deny the democratically expressed will of the people.

Germany slips into economic meltdown as US-China trade war escalates
Germany looks to be headed for economic meltdown (as this publication has predicted since early in the year,) due to the trade war between the US and China […] Sebastian Dullien of the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research claimed the German Chancellor is burying her head in the sand regarding how Trump’s tariffs will impact German exports …

Germany: Economy crisis a growth stalls – car production crashes
Germany’s federal Government today reduced its growth forecast for the EU’s largest economy today after for the second time in two months as plunging car production figures sent shockwaves through the Eurozone. The German economy, already technically in recession, has been propping up the economically stagnant EU for years. After Brexit of course …


Europe’s Bank Crisis Arrives In Germany: €29 Billion Bremen Landesbank On The Verge Of Failure

… yesterday we observed a surprising development involving Deutsche Bank, namely the bank’s decision to quietly liquidate some of its shipping loans. Reuters reported, “Deutsche Bank is looking to sell at least $1 billion of shipping loans [a market sector] whose lenders face closer scrutiny from the European Central Bank.


Europe Prepares To Join The Currency War

Things seemed to be going to plan for the European Unon’s single currecncy, The Euro, which was the biggest single step in the plan to merge the twenty eight member states into a single political entity. Ties to the German economic powerhouse the poorer nations of southern Europe could not manage their finances efficiently and soon became dependent on bailouts from the European Central Bank with were made with attached conditions suggested by Germany. It seemed that as long as the German economy prospered the ‘European project,’ (referred to, a tad unkindly perhaps, by this news site among others as Greater Germany,) would stay on track.


Germany admits hard Brexit will cause havoc in EU financial markets – ‘Common sense MUST prevail’

Germany, the EU’s most powerful economy, has urged Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU’s chief negotiator, the pompous French clown Michel Barnier to do all in their power to avoid a hard Brexit due to risks of French instransigence disrupting the financial sector. This would be catastrophic for the EU’s financial markets, though the leading German economists say the prospect is becoming “more likely every day”.