India And Pakistan: Inching Toward Their Final War?

Sourced from an article by Mohammed Ayoob

india pakistan conflict
The forgotten nuclear powers, India and Pakistan are edging towards war (Image source: LA Times)

India and Pakistan are the nuclear powers mainstream media tends to forget as they focus on USA, Russia, China and North Korea, but both have between 120 and 140 nuclear warheads, probably not equipped with the latest guidance and stealth technology, but good enough to do a lot od damage according to the Arms Control Association. A report published in 2015 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center claims that Pakistan may be outpacing India in terms of its nuclear stockpile, and may possess 350 nuclear warheads within the next five to ten years. A 2016 SIPRI report also concluded that Pakistan now has more nuclear warheads than India.

However, what should most concern us about the nuclear-weapons policies of the neighbouring states is not the size of the stockpiles, but their radically different nuclear doctrines.

The major difference between the two countries’ nuclear doctrines is that while India has renounced first use of nuclear weapons, Pakistan has refused to do so by reserving its right to use nuclear weapons in the face of India’s conventional superiority.

So far aroundthe uncertainty Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities is preventing a major conflagration in South Asia. Pakistan’s refusal to reject first use, and its emphasis on building stockpiles of tactical nuclear weapons and short-range missiles can be explained in light of its conventional-force inferiority. It is in fact a mirror image of the American nuclear doctrine as applied to central Europe during the Cold War. The United States refused to disavow first use of nuclear weapons, and deployed tactical nuclear weapons in central Europe on a large scale, because of NATO’s presumed inferiority in terms of conventional power against that deployed by the Warsaw Pact.

But for Pakistan, the uncertainty introduced by its nuclear doctrine has delivered a bonus. The nuclear threat provided Pakistan with the shield behind which terrorist groups armed and trained by Islamabad, such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Muhammad, can engage in casing havoc not only in Indian-administered Kashmir but also in other parts of India. The fear of provoking a nuclear response from Pakistan has prevented India from retaliating to these provocations, use of its superior conventional forces to inflict a crushing defeat on Pakistan.

India did not retaliate even when a massive terrorist operation launched from Pakistan targeted India’s financial capital, Mumbai, in November 2008. This attack lasted for more than sixty hours and left at least 174 people dead.

However, it seems that the logic of this deterrence is fast eroding. Attacks such as the one in Mumbai, and subsequent assaults on Indian military installations in Kashmir and elsewhere, have also provided justification for India’s hard-line Hindu nationalists to whip up support for a military response, thus putting pressure on the Indian government to abandon its policy of diplomatic responses. In the past few months, Indian retaliatory attacks have targeted not only terrorist bases but also Pakistani military facilities, causing significant casualties among Pakistani forces.

The escalation in the last two years in terror attacks, especially by Jaish-e-Muhammad, on Indian military targets in Kashmir and surrounding Indian states has made the situation very perilous. In the past several months, terrorist groups operating from Pakistan with the complicity of the government and military authorities have undertaken several major attacks, causing significant loss of life in India.

A major attack on the Uri camp in Jammu and Kashmir in September 2016, left seventeen military personnel dead and shocked the Indian government into reassessing its strategy in response to such attacks. On September 29, 2016, India launched a “surgical strike” against terrorist bases in Pakistan. Although there has been speculation that India conducted similar strikes before that, it was the first time Delhi indicated publicly that it was ready to launch major retaliatory attacks against targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

In the latest incident, in February 2018, Jaish terrorists attacked an Indian military camp in Jammu; five army personnel and four militants were killed. In retaliation, the Indian army destroyed a Pakistani army post with the help of rocket launchers, killing, according to Indian sources, twenty-two Pakistani personnel. This tit-for-tat exchange is reaching dangerous proportions.

The Pakistani military tends to downplay Indian incursions and retaliatory attacks, while bigging up their own, and true to form they refused to recognize the seriousness of the escalating cross border violence, mainly because it does not want to appear weak in the eyes of the Pakistani public which has a culture of honour and revenge, and is likely to clamor for retribution. However, as more and more Pakistanis get internet access the military cannot continue to downplay Indian attacks, or increasing fatalities. There is the danger that at some point, either by miscalculation or by design, an Indian surgical strike in Pakistani territory will push the Pakistani military to retaliate in force.

Is World War Three Really Kicking Off This Time?
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Have US tactics only helped to make ISIS more powerful?/b>
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EU and US talk of war with Russia

The European People’s Party (EPP) the largest political group in the European Parliament, nominated Luxemourgeois nonentity and alcoholic (allegely) Jean-Claude Juncker as President of the European Commission. The party has the support of some of Europe’s most powerful leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Made up largely of centre Social Democrat parties and centre right Christian Democrats they command an automatic majority in any vote taken by the European Parliament and are unerringly federalist, globalist and anything but democratic.

And they are unerringly supportive of America’s efforts to start a war with Russia.

“The time of talk and persuasion with Russia is over,” MEP and Vice-President of the European People’s Party (EPP) Jacek Saryusz-Wolski told a meeting of the European Parliament on Tuesday, 21 April, “Now it’s time for a tough policy, a realistic policy, and concentration on defence and security, because the eastern flank of the EU feels vitally, existentially threatened.”
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Syrian Rebels Say West Is Already Aiding Thier Uprising.

The mainstream media are all agog today over something The Daily Stirrer and other libertarian blogs have been telling you for weeks. There are already western military personnel on the ground in Syria, aiding the uprising against the government of President Assad.Western powers have been providing military support and equipment to the Syrian rebel fighter, one of …

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Germany Foreign Minister Warns Qatar Crisis Could Lead To War As Qatar Asks Moscow For Support

10 June, 2017

German foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel is worried that the blockade of air and sea ports in Qatar by Saudi Arabia and its Muslim extremist allies in the middle east could lead to a new regional war in the Gulf region. In an interview with  Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung, he said “There is a danger that this dispute could lead to war” This would represent a “dramatic” escalation in tensions between Qatar and neighbouring countries in the Gulf.

Gabriel said personal talks this week with his the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, and phone calls with the foreign ministers of Iran and Kuwait underscored his concerns. “After my talks this week, I know how serious the situation is, but I believe there are also good chances to make progress,” he concluded.

Gabriel also referred to a phone conversation with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on the Gulf situation on Friday and said that Tillerson showed a “very wise and prudent attitude” that has contributed to calming the conflict.

Yet while Tillerson was “calming” the conflict, President Trump appeared to be adding fire to it, when the president accused Qatar of being a “high level” funder of terrorism even as the Pentagon and Tillerson cautioned against the military, commercial and humanitarian effects of a blockade imposed by Arab states and others. Trump is talking bollocks of course, while its true that Qatar does support terrorist activity, both Saudi Arabia and the USA are far bigger suppliers of arms, money and expertise to terrorist organisations.

Today Saudi Arabia and Bahrain welcomed Trump’s demand for Qatar to stop supporting terrorism, but did not respond to a U.S. Department of State call for them to ease pressure on the tiny but wealthy Gulf state. After severing ties with Qatar on Monday, Saudi Arabia said it was committed to “decisive and swift action to cut off all funding sources for terrorism” in a statement carried by state news agency SPA, attributed to “an official source”.

The real cause of the conflict is not Qatar’s support for terrorism of course, but its abandonment of support for the US / Saudi pet project of an oil and gas pipeline from The Gulf through Syrian territory to the Mediterranean.It seems the Qatari’s have grasped the idea that Assad, with support from Iran and Russia, is winning the war against ISIS despite US and Saudi intervention in support of the Islamic extremists.

A separate SPA report on acknowledged Tillerson’s call for Qatar to curtail support for terrorism, but did not mention his concession that apart from was hurting ordinary Qataris and impairing business dealings in The Gulf it is also harming the U.S. fight against the Islamic State militant group. Saudi Arabia said its action followed the conclusions of last month’s Arab Islamic American Summit in Riyadh, where Trump delivered a speech about Islamic extremism.

Meanwhile the joker in the middle eastern pack, Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan vowed to continue supporting Qatar. “Now, there are ones who are bothered because of us being together with our Qatari brothers or sending and exporting food supplies, drugs etc – no matter if they are in hunger or thirst – should excuse us. We will continue to give all our support to Qatar,” Erdogan said at an iftar (fast-breaking meal) with members of his AK Party in Istanbul, quoted by RT.

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Mainstream media has abandoned news reporting in favour of simply repeating government and corporate propaganda. Terrorism is one issue on which you will only find out the facts from new media. So unless you actually believe our leaders are heroes engaged in a constant struggle to save the world from dark forces, explore this page and learn how ‘terror’ has become a political tool.

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War In Iraq: Confused? You Will Be

Picture Source: tpnn                                                                               
 

I’m always a bit wary about referring to The Daily Mail because mere mention of that rather sensationalist but immensely popular newspaper (compare its circulation figures with those of The Guardian or The Independent) is likely to attract a Two Minutes Hate session from Britain’s biggest fascist movement, Unite Against Fascism, Britain’s biggest Nazi movement, The Anti Nazi League and all the left wing Sheeple who unthinkingly follow their rabid attempts to prevent intelligent conversation.

Many of us are confused about what is going on in the Middle East however, and The Mail has run an article that sums it up perfectly. I don’t read The Mail myself but sometimes follow links to specific items of content and unlike our Labour and Lib Dem supporting neo -fascist friends I’m open minded enough to know that the fact something has been published in The Daily Mail does not necessarily mean it is wrong.

So as clueless Dave prepares to follow Obama into yet another unwinnable war (lets hope Parliament kicks him in the balls again) and I know my leftie readers are too bigoted to follow a link to the Mail I’ll summarise the article for you.

We support the Iraqi government in it’s fight against Islamic State (IS/ISIL/ISIS/Alky Ada/The Silent Three/The Famous Five/whatever they are called this week). Our leaders say IS poses an existential threat to the west (now where have we heard something like that before?) but IS is supported (i.e. funded) by Saudi Arabia whom we do like (because they have oil, lots of oil.)so even though they are a bunch of fanatical Islamist theocrats we are their allies.

We don’t like President Assad in Syria because he only has a bit of oil, but our leaders can’t fight him because he’s best mates with Putin (who has oil AND gas and threatens to turn off the tap if we attack his friends).

IS are fighting Assad. We support their fight against him by giving them weapons and sending military advisers to train up human organ noshing terrorists on how to use them. But though we don’t want to fight the IS terrorists who are trying to overthrow the Syrian government because assad is our enemy, we do (we are told) have to fight the IS terrorists who are fighting the Iraqi government who are our puppets friends.

We don’t like Iran because like Saudi Arabia they are a bunch of Islamist Theocrats except they are the wrong sort of Islamists, but the Iranian government supports the Iraqi government against IS and we support the Iraqi government against IS.

Therefore some of our friends are our enemies and some of our enemies are our friends, and some of our enemies are fighting our other enemies, and some of our friends are fighting our other friends. We don’t want our friends to lose unless they are fighting our other friends, and we don’t want our enemies to win unless they are fighting our other enemies.

If we respond to Obama’s demand for support we will not know if we are fighting our friends or our enemies because they change their names more often than they change their shirts.

If we join Obama’s coalition of the terminally confused and help our friends defeat our enemies we may find our friends are even more repugnant than the enemies we helped them defeat (remember what happened in Libya)

What more obvious reason could there be for going to war.

The Public Face Of ISIS – The Daily Mail

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We Will Raise The Flag Of Allah In The White House Say ISIS Leaders

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or Islamic State for short has a nice line in chutzpah, which seems a very Jewish quality for Islamists. Their leaders have issued a video via Vice media which warns the United States that it plans to attack America and raise “the flag of Allah in the White House.”

“I say to America that the Islamic caliphate has been established,” Abu Mosa, a spokesman for the terror group currently causing mayhem in northern Iraq, told Vice Media in a video interview posted online Thursday.

“Don’t be cowards and attack us with drones. Instead send your soldiers, the ones we humiliated in Iraq. We will humiliate them everywhere, God willing, and we will raise the flag of Allah in the White House.”

Read Latest News from Vice media and more at Newsmax.com

The bitter irony here of course is that ISIS and it’s parent Al Qaeda were not just born out of American meddling in middle eastern politics, this latest, most violent and most directly threatening to the peace and stability of western nation were funded by money from America and its middle eastern allies, its well organised and disciplined fighters were trained by American, British and French (the FUKUS axis) ‘military advisers’ and they are armed with weapons and munitions from FUKUS axis defence contractors (usually via intermediaries such as Turkey and Qatar as we learned during the Syria conflict).

Now I’m not a military strategist but it seems to me the most insane thing a nation can do in any conflict situation is train and arm its enemies.

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Now Things Are Starting To Make Sense

It is now known that the uprising in Ukraine early this year that saw the elected government, which was cooperating far too well with Russia for the liking of the western powers overthrown and replaced by a US and EU sponsored gaggle of gangsters, thugs and neo – fascists whose task was to serve western interests rather than those of Ukraine’s population.

Many commentators have suggested that if we join up the dots the picture that emerges reveals a push by powerful interests to establish a USA led global hegemony. And when we look at regime change wars and civil unrest in other countries the screams of “conspiracy theory” from those who yearn to live under a global totalitarian government take on a hollow tone.

Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Ukraine have all been destabilised by international action led by the United States. Libya, Iraq and Syria all have oil So how do Afghanistan and Ukraine fit in.

Afghanistan is the key to opening a pipeline route from the Caspian and former Soviet Republics in central Asia to the Indian Ocean. And there are rumours of possible untapped oil and gas reserves in Afghan teritory.

Ukraines strategic location on the pipeline routes from oil and gas fields in the Caucasus and around The Caspian Sea into Europe. And then there’s this:

from zero hedge
Company In Which US Vice President Joe Biden’s Son Is Director Prepares To Drill Shale Gas In East Ukraine

Recall what we said earlier today: the proxy war Ukraine conflict, just like that in Syria preceding it, “is all about energy.” Recall also the following chart showing Ukraine’s shale gas deposits, keeping in mind that the Dnieper-Donets basin accounts for approximately 90 per cent of Ukrainian production. Finally, recall our story from May that Joe Biden’s son, Hunter, just joined the board of the largest Ukraine gas producer Burisma Holdings. Now put it all together and you will like figure out what will happen next.

Well maybe not what will happen next but certainly why the USA is so desperate to drive a wedge between Russia and Europe and to demonise Vladimir Putin while in the same move gaining control of Ukraine’s oil and gas reserves. And that offers some insight into why Obama was on TV blaming pro Russian separatists for downing Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 almost before it was hit.

It also demonstrates that the pro EU Ukrainian government and western interests had a lot to gain from politicising such an outrage. So ignoring any outbursts from certain Professorial pricks who can’t understand that when I said there was no evidence last Thursday that the separatists were responsible that is not the same as saying the separatists were not responsible or that somebody else was.

I know it is incomprehensible to childbrains who try and give their words authority by announcing “I’m a scientist”, or “I work in a university”, but in the real world there are often more than two possible answers to a question. (Actually I can truthfully say I have worked in three universities, Manchester, Liverpool and Corpus Christi, Cambridge; IT consultants get around.)

And so sensible people take a step back and wait for the details to emerge before jumping to conclusions. We’re still waiting.

Ukraine’s gas / oil deposits (source)

ukraine gas oil deposits

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ISIS advance on Baghdad, Russian Pipline Blows in Ukraine. Is The It?

First thing I saw this morning after logging on, the story trending on search engines, was speculation about whether The Duchess Of Kate might be pregnant again (Answer: No, on his way home in the company helicopter last night, Prince Willie stopped at Harry Ramsden’s and picked up a chippy tea, the Duchess was just a bit bloated, that’s all – once she’s had a good fart the story will be forgotten)

I intended to lead the blog on that today, well it is silly season after all. but as the day wore on, the news got worse.

ISIS Islamic militants are still advancing on Baghdad though the arrival of Republican guards from Iran seems to have slowed them. As western leaders pontificate it is amusing to reflect that the mad bastards now intent on genocidal war in Iraq are the people who only a few months ago Obama, Cameron and Hollande were hailing as friends of liberal democracy.

And then I read a story about a Russian owned gas pipeline (or some early reports said a refinery) in eastern Ukraine exploding. Media were speculating that the pipeline explosion could trigger a full scale war in Ukraine.

Well folks if all that’s left in the morning is a few broken and bloodies survivors crawling through the rubble begging for water, it’s been nice knowing you all :))

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Want A Good Laugh? Try This

War Criminal and Traitor Tony Blair: ‘Iraq invasion didn’t cause current crisis’

It is often said that the funniest people are those who don’t know they are funny. Therefore if there was an award for funniest man in the world, Tony Blair would surely be a contender because the more seriously he takes himself the more idiotically surreal his comedy becomes.

Having continued to insist that there were Weapons Of Mass Destriction in Iraq in 2001 as justification for the British and American invasion, Blair is now trying to say that short war and the long occupation which followed it had nothing to do with the social and political meltdown of Iraq since Obama’s premature withdrawal of American troops in 2011.

Blair seems to think his illegal war in Iraq brought great benefits to that country which is also laughable. Still, funny is largely a matter of personal opinion and I doubt the people of Iraq, Afghantistan, The balkans or sierra Leone would agree with my view that Tony Blair is nearly as funny as Tommy Cooper.

nothing lasts forever of course and even before he has been crowned funniest man in the world, blair is facing serious challenges from barack Obama and David Cameron who, in their knockabout, slapstick way are trying to tell us the FUKUS axis backed coup in Ukraine has been an enormous victory for freedom and democracy and stories of conflict, atrocities and mass killings are just propaganda being put out by the Russian government.

That again is mostly a matter of opinion:

Ukrainian civil war looms as 49 die in plane shot down by rebels

While the world’s short attention span may have been diverted to Iraq where the ISIS insurgents are now knocking on Baghdad’s door, and with it – Iraq’s vast southern oil fields and infrastructure (which if taken offline would send oil up to $200 according to T. Boone Pickens). the “out of sight, out of mind” conflict in Ukraine, which the western media dropped covering like a hot potato some time in early May for reasons not entirely known, continues to escalate and where the latest outbreak of violence took place overnight when a Ukraine military transport Il-76 was allegedly shot down by separatists in the city of Lugansk as it was about to land.

As a result of the crash all 49 Ukrainian service personnel on board were killed. The death toll would be the biggest suffered by government forces in a single incident since Ukraine’s government launched a military operation against pro-Russian separatists in the east. Continue reading

White phosphorus’ reports: Ukraine military ‘dropped incendiary bombs’ on Slavyansk

Residents of Slavyansk and its suburbs were awoken overnight on Thursday by what they say were incendiary bombs that were dropped on their city by Kiev’s military. Witnesses and local media reports suggested that the bombs might be phosphorous.

Much of the village of Semyonovka, located in the Slavyansk suburbs, was set ablaze. Local residents told RT that the ground didn’t stop burning for some time.

“We all saw what happened here yesterday. They used rocket launchers as well as incendiary bombs against us. The ground was on fire. How can the ground burn by itself. It burned for about forty minutes,” resident Roman Litvinov told RT over the phone. Continue reading

While none of these reports come from what we would think of as totally reliable sources (but what is a totally reliable source in a world of spin and deception?) we do think they serve to illustrate why The Boggart Blog bookie is refusing to take bets on Barack Obama being proclaimed the funniest man in the world:

Obama to Tumblr users: “… the world has never been less violent or more tolerant than it is right now.”

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