Disastrous Manufacturing Figure Herald German Economic Recession

Germany has long been the prop that held up the economically feeble EU, in which more than helf the 27 members that will remain in the bloc after Britain leaves are economic basket cases (some due only to the strictures of Eurozone membership, others because of the traditional weakness of their national economies,) so with Germany slipping towards the recession we and other well informed blogs and news site have predicted since Merkel’s ‘open doors’ immigration policy allowed a couple of million iliterate, uneducated, unskilled and unemployable immigrants to flood into the country, incresing the bill for welfare services exponentially, problems for Germany’s high – tech manufacturing led economy which needs highly skilled, well educated and adaptable workers and professionals was inevitable.

When we wrote about the early signs of recession in the German economy we were scoffed at, called far – right nut jobs and conspiracy theorists, and inevitably, racists because anyone but a racist would know that a couple of millon unemployable immigrants living on benefits can only boost a high – tech economy.

Today, for all the auusurances by Europhile politicians and bureaucrats that everything in the European Union is on the up and up, Germany is on red alert for recession following the biggest collapse in activity for its mighty industrial sector since the financial crisis. Technically Germany already is in recession, they’re just not willing to admit it.

The eurozone’s bigge,t and most powerful economy relies on exports but its car industry has been punished by a slowing global economy,   government policies promoting electric vehichles which nobody want to buy because they are hideously expensive and useless, and the fallout of the trade war between the US and China.

Financial information service IHS Markit’s latest snapshot of Germany’s manufacturing growth – where a score under 50 signals contraction – dipped to 41.4, its worst level since 2009, as demand from non – EU trading partners slumped. There were also worrying signs that the manufacturing slump is spreading to the service sector after firms in that sector experience their first fall in new business since 2014.

Confidence among German businesses is the weakest since 2012, private sector job creation is stalling after six years of growth and companies are eating into backlogs as new orders begin to dry up, the figures showed.

Germany’s economy shrank an overall 0.1pc between April and June. Monday’s dire survey data comes after recent official figures showed a sharp 0.6pc drop in industrial production in July.

Phil Smith, principal economist at IHS Markit, said Germany’s manufacturing data was “simply awful”, with combined readings for services and manufacturers “firmly in contraction territory” and the weakest for almost seven years.

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Cracks In EU Unity Facade Are Beginning To Show

Coincidental with the bizarre events in the UK’s Supreme Coirt, where judges tried to usurp the power of parliament to themselves in a globaloist bid to stop Brexit, the economic situation in Europe, which as we have reported many times is dire, has entered into a critical period.  With one of the two net contributors o the EU treasury about to leave,Germany, which for decades has propped up the bloc financially as more and more economic basket cases were absorbed into Brussels’ wannabe empire, has stumbled into if not actually a recession then something very like one

Year on Year (YoY) growth in the German economy, from July 2018, July 2019 is 0.4% – what you would expect in the middle of a depression, and significantly less than the official inflation rate (while the real rate of inflation is, predictably, higher still. UK growth figures are slightly better coming in at 1.2%. Poor old Italy recorded a GDP growth of -0.1% YoY, (that’s a minus sign by the way).

Italy has a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 132% and finally France with a growth rate of 1.4% and a debt-to-GDP of 97% is effectively broke. That’s the big four in the EU/Eurozone.

So, the biggest economies in EU/Eurozone have a growth rate ranging from -0.1% to 1.4%. Oh, and I almost forgot negative interest rates are now becoming the norm in The Eurozon and 85% of German Bunds are non-performing and/or at negative interest rates.

Inexplicably the ECB is getting geared up for another round of QE, which means that the euro is going to be devalued. Of course, the Americans aren’t going to be best pleased with this turn of events but doubling down on the policy that failed is par for the course with the EU. Only a few years ago they decided the way to resolve the problem of mass immigration was ………… more mass immigration, and are currently proposing more politicalintegration of member states to counter the resurgence in nationalism triggered by …………….. wait for it ………………. forcing political integration on member states.

By failing to support US trade tariffs on nations that have pissed off Washington, the EU has involved itself peripherally in the US tade war with the world. but this can onlu=y increase problems. Germany in its present economic travails, and lined up to take the biggest economic hit from Brexit, is not going to welcome any increased costs for its export industries.

Most importantly this includes the cost of the raw material essential to Germany’s manufacturing/export sector. Natural Gas and oil are piped to Germany from Russia and the construction the of Nordstream 2 pipeline, which the US wants to alt to put Putin in his place, is crucial to the German economy. America wants to force Germany to buy more expensive, less reliable, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) by taking alternative suppliers out of the picture and is threatening to impose sanctions on any company and/or state to get their own way.

GERMANY’S ENTSCHEIDUNGSZEIT (DECISION TIME)

This is a clearly a case of “deja vu all over again” and a moment of truth for the Germans. Do they do what the Americans tell them, which would be economic suicide, or will they pursue their national interests and give Uncle Sam the finger. This was precisely the setting in 1985 though with Japan then the object of US financial and economic destabilisation.

The Plaza Accord was a joint-agreement, signed on 22 September 1985, at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, between France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, to devalue the U.S. dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Mark. The resulting recessionary impact which pushed up the value of the Yen against the dollar in Japan’s export-dependent economy.

This created an incentive for the expansionary monetary policies that led to the Japanese investment bubble of the late 1980s. The Plaza Accord triggered the Japanese asset price bubble, which progressed into a protracted period of deflation and low growth in Japan known as the first Lost Decade. Has Germany, and by implication Europe learned the lesson one wonders?

Bearing this in mind it should also be noted that Germany is a big investor in Russia.

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Green Hysteria Is Destroying German Economy

Car making is Germany’s biggest earner (picture: Wikimedia commons)

This blog has reported many times that the mighty German economy is heading into trouble because it’s political elite, led by wannabe saint Angela Merkel is more concerned with climate change scaremongering and importing millions of illiterate, unemployable their world migrants in an orgy of virtue signalling.

The bigest single industrial sector in the German economy, automobile manufacturing, currently acts as the real engine driving the country’s economy, but as taxes rse to support a burgeoning welfare bill, and sales plummet due to the pomotion of expensive, inefficient and, it has to be said, incredibly dirty electric cars, it looks as if the situation may be in fora dramatic change for the worse according to new report from economists Matthias Weik and Marc Friedrich in a commentary at the online news portal of the (German Midsize Companies News – DMN).

This blog would not normally advise readers to take not of economists’ speculations but in this case their conclusions coincide with the opinions of a number of hard headed businessmen who see trouble ahead for the economic powerhouse that propos up the European Union.

Weik and Friedrich base their view of the economic direction of the German economy and how it is seriously threatened by the country’s obsession with climate considerations based on very dodgy science, and an irrational policy of opening the borders to all arrivals from third world nations, and how policymakers are neglecting key industries on evidence that Germany’s ruling elite are unduly influenced by certain left leaning academics whose thinking is heavily influenced by the so called Cultural Marxism of The Frankfurt Schoool of twentieth century econopmics.

Weik and Friedrich say German politicians have been naive and too easily influenced by noisy minorities and attention seeking scientists and  in their panic to save the planet from an alleged climate meltdown have, in the process of ruined the German economy.

“Everybody is talking about the climate, yet no one is talking about the economic climate,” Weik and Friedrich say. in common with many investment managers and industrialists, the two economists warn of a coming recession, one that will be “hard as nails” as the green activist and Social Justice Warrior onslaught on western, and particularly German industry intensifies.

According to the Weik and Friedrich, already “the seasonally adjusted and real order intake of German industry fell by 8.6 percent compared to the same month last year! For the tenth month in a row, it is going down!” So while the government and the Bundesbank juggle figures frantically, in fact Germany is already technically in recession. (The usual measure for growth / recession is GDP but when a government pumps €billions into the economy so it can hand out massive benefits to immigrants, which they spend in the economy, the resulting ‘growth’ is illusory.

“Companies such as Deutsche Bank, BASF, Bayer, Siemens, Thyssen, Ford have begun “massive job cuts or announced plans to do so in anticipation of the hard times ahead.”

The authors say that words, such as “unemployment” and “layoffs”, will soon be dominating the media and that “no one will talk about the shortage of skilled workers anymore, let alone climate change”.

The consequences of a major recession in manufacturing would send economic shock waves not through Germany but also throughout the European Union (EU) which massively relies on revenues generated by the German automotive industry, as has been well documented for years.

Weik and Friedrich write that Germany’s green and globalist policies have “negligently gambled away” prosperity and that the “coming climate change in the economy will nip all irrelevant sham debates in the bud.”

They add: “The heated discussions and hysteria are a sign of the famous late Roman decadence and a warning sign of the crash. For many who demonstrate today, there will be no jobs in Germany tomorrow.”

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German economic crisis: industrial output plunges to ‘disaster’ level

 

Italy PM Giuseppe Conte resigns, launches blistering attack on deputy Matteo Salvini

In another huge blow to the efforts of the Brussels bureaucracy to create an illusion of solidarity among remaining EU member states in the run up to Brexit, Italy’s Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte has resigned, citing the behaviour of his Deputy Matteo Salvini the man who was prevented from assuming the leadership of Italy after his party won the most recent election, by Brussels’ undemocratic refusal to accept a Eurosceptic politician as leader of any member state.

Since then the Brussels elite has constantly interfered in Italy’s political and economic life, in a bid to prevent Salvini, who as leader of League, the largest party in the Italian legislature from carrying out their populist agenda. Salvini, the de facto political leader of Italy as Conte had no party backing him and no electoral mandate has been seeking confrontation with the EU principally over immigration and economic policies.

This development is certain to end the League / Five Star governimg coalition, resulting in a general election in which the hugely popular League is likely to win an overall majority. If that is the outcome Brussels will be powerless to prevent Salvini becoming Prime Minister and his party assuming overall control. And that would certainly result in Italy Leaving the European Single Currency system (the Euro,) as a step towards quitting the EU entirely. READ MORE at Vanguard News

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The Tory Collaborators Working With EU To Stop Brexit Exposed

Boris Johnson was ridiculed by the predominantly leftist mainstream media when he talked of collaborators in the Conservative Party working with the EU to prevent the UK leaving the bloc on October 31. People who though he was right and were brave enough to say so were predictably called conspiracy theorists.

While Remain supporters in the UK still scream that a ‘tiny’ country like Britain (tiny in the sens of having the fifth largest economy and being in the top twenty five out of 200 by population,) cannot survive outside the smothering embrace of the European Union bureaucracy.

The case is that the EU is failing economically. Around half the remaining twenty seven member states after Brexit will be economic basket cases, and even the mighty German economy is struggling. The EU cannot afford to lose Britain’s economic contribution. But self interested British politicians and bureaucrats, with their eyes on a lucrative EU job, (former Labour leader Neil Kinnock was modestly well off before he and his wife landed sinecures in the European Commission, now they are multi millionaires,) have now been exposed as having worked with top EU officials to block both a no deal brexit and the negotiation of an acceptable deal.

READ MORE about this betrayal by blogger Raedwald

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Just When you Thought Brexit Could Not Possibly Be A Bigger Cock Up

German economic crisis: industrial output plunges to ‘disaster’ level -other economic data revised down

This news site and our sister publication Original Boggart Blog have spent three years arguing logically and reasonably against the emotionally overwrought ravings of people who supported ‘Remain’ in the 2016 EU referendum and cannot accept they lost. Brexit will be a catastrophe, they scream, people will starve, we wil have no medicines or toilet rolls, no food or water or beer or anything, toilets will explode and spew boiling sewage and blood into our homes, aircraft will fall out of the sky, clocks will run backwards and our nostrils will be assailed by wet dog smelss because no nation of a mere 60 million people can survive outside the EU.

And those of us stubborn enough to pick up the gauntlet have pointed out that Canada (30 millonish) Australia (20someting million, New Zealand (more sheep than people,) and the 85% of the world’s nations that are not EU members seem to do OK. And then we have backed up our assertions with evendence that since the referendum was won by Leave predictions of economic collapse for britain have failed to materialise, while for most EU nations, stagnation is turning into recession. The latest evidence for this is another news item showing the mighty German economy, on which the EU has always depended and will depend even more once the UK leaves, is running into trouble.

Yesterday (6 August 2019) it was announced that industrial production in Germany dropped by a greater degree than expected in June, showing a 1.5% month on month decrease, thus compounding fears that Europe’s biggest economy is facing an imminent recession.

Output fell 5.2 per cent year on year from June 2018, the German national statistics office revealed on. According to Reuters, analysts had estimated output would fall 0.4 per cent during the month compared with May. Production, excluding energy and construction, was down 1.8 per cent.

These figures from Destatis come only a day after the same source revealed that factory orders, driven by an increase in demand from countries outside the eurozone, were higher than expected. While those figures offered a glimmer of hope among a plethora of bad news for EU economies and particularly for Europe’s economic powerhouse, business analysts pointed out that new orders have dropped by an average of 0.7 per cent every month throughout this year.

June’s decline in output “kills off any hopes that the strong orders data published yesterday marked the beginning of a recovery”, said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. “Business surveys uniformly point to a further contraction in July, so things look set to get worse rather than better.”

Other economic data published this week included revised down figures for services that showed the sector in Germany had grown at a slower rate in July than had been earlier thought, prompting fears that the eurozone’s biggest economy is heading into a recession.

German website Handelsblatt commented: “If both sides remain stubborn, this can jeopardise the stability of the financial markets.

Concerns that the industrial output drop exacerbates long – standing fears over German economy first appeared on The Financial Times website. That such concerns are being expressed by serious economics writers in a heavyweight publication like The Financial Times exposes the level of scaremongering based on fake news that hasd been used in the Brexit debate by those determined to overturn the result and deny the democratically expressed will of the people.

Germany slips into economic meltdown as US-China trade war escalates
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Germany: Economy crisis a growth stalls – car production crashes
Germany’s federal Government today reduced its growth forecast for the EU’s largest economy today after for the second time in two months as plunging car production figures sent shockwaves through the Eurozone. The German economy, already technically in recession, has been propping up the economically stagnant EU for years. After Brexit of course …


Europe’s Bank Crisis Arrives In Germany: €29 Billion Bremen Landesbank On The Verge Of Failure

… yesterday we observed a surprising development involving Deutsche Bank, namely the bank’s decision to quietly liquidate some of its shipping loans. Reuters reported, “Deutsche Bank is looking to sell at least $1 billion of shipping loans [a market sector] whose lenders face closer scrutiny from the European Central Bank.


Europe Prepares To Join The Currency War

Things seemed to be going to plan for the European Unon’s single currecncy, The Euro, which was the biggest single step in the plan to merge the twenty eight member states into a single political entity. Ties to the German economic powerhouse the poorer nations of southern Europe could not manage their finances efficiently and soon became dependent on bailouts from the European Central Bank with were made with attached conditions suggested by Germany. It seemed that as long as the German economy prospered the ‘European project,’ (referred to, a tad unkindly perhaps, by this news site among others as Greater Germany,) would stay on track.


Germany admits hard Brexit will cause havoc in EU financial markets – ‘Common sense MUST prevail’

Germany, the EU’s most powerful economy, has urged Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU’s chief negotiator, the pompous French clown Michel Barnier to do all in their power to avoid a hard Brexit due to risks of French instransigence disrupting the financial sector. This would be catastrophic for the EU’s financial markets, though the leading German economists say the prospect is becoming “more likely every day”.

Most Absurd Brexit Claim Ever: “30-Year Recession, Worse Than 1930s

Ian R Thorpe

Writing in that repository of all left wing and globalist idiocies The Guardian, writer Amelia Hill makes the nonsensical assertion UK cannot simply trade on WTO terms after no-deal Brexit, offering only the opinions of left wing and globalist ‘experts’ in support of her case. Here’s a sample:

The UK will be unable to have frictionless, tariff-free trade under World Trade Organization rules for up to seven years in the event of a no-deal Brexit, according to two leading European Union law specialists.

The ensuing chaos could double food prices and plunge Britain into a recession that could last up to 30 years, claim the lawyers who acted for Gina Miller in the historic case that forced the government to seek parliament’s approval to leave the EU. Anneli Howard, a specialist in EU and competition law at Monckton Chambers and a member of the bar’s Brexit working group, believes this isn’t true, Hill claims

“No deal means leaving with nothing, Sir Ivan Rogers former UK Premanent Representative to the the European Institute said in a lecture that the anticipated recession will be worse than the 1930s, let alone 2008. It is impossible to say how long it would go on for. Some economists say 10 years, others say the effects could be felt for 20 or even 30 yearseven ardent Brexiteers agree it could be decades.”

Nobody involved with The Daily Stirrer has seen or heard any Brexiteers hysterical predictions of a thirty years recession, but Remainers are not known for their honesty or level headedness. However Hill was not done with the anti – Brexit hyperbole.

The government cannot simply cut and paste the 120,000 EU statutes into UK law and then make changes to them gradually, she said. “The UK will need to set up new enforcement bodies and transfer new powers to regulators to create our own domestic regimes,” she said.

She’s talking through her posterior orifice again. Those laws are alread in British law and can be undone gradually. That has already been clarified by constitutional lawyers.

Effects Felt for 30 Years

Hill made five references to Anneli Howard, whose CV describes her as a leading junior lawyer in telecommunications law, in the article but the alleged expert’s professional status as a junior lawyer hardly qualifies her opinion as authoritative.

Hill’s moans about a 1930s recession and claims even ardent Brexiters agree it could be decades, in the same paragraph. Again she does not name these Brexiteers. In an linked-to article by The Guardian, titled: Two, 50 or 100 years: when do leavers think Brexit will pay off? writer Emine Saner employs that old trick of a very misleading headline.

This is what Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Brexiteer alluded to actually said: We won’t know the full economic consequences for a very long time.” That is quite accurate. Benefits accrue every year.

Former Brexit Secretary David Davis said There is no reason why many of these cannot be achieved within two years.”

Hill managed to take an already purposely-overhyped headline title and turn it into a complete fabricated lie, fake news that links recessions to a 30-year wait for the full benefits to be known.

After 16 paragraphs of total scaremongering and attempted scattering of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, Hill mentions the counter-claims.

Economists for Free Trade, a group with links to Jacob Rees-Mogg and David Davis, claims there is “nothing to fear” from leaving the EU without reaching an agreement.

David Collins, a professor of international economic law at City University of London, said: “The UK can trade quite easily on an uncertified schedule.”

However, Collins conceded that an uncertified schedule “might be an indication of that complaining member’s intention to initiate a dispute against the member,” and that “the WTO dispute settlement process can take several years to resolve”.

Thus two correctly cited experts say no problem. Two law experts, not economic experts makes the opposing claim.

Collins, an international economics professor, is certainly correct, but notice the slant of the article and the title.

The idea of a 30-year recession wins first prize for the most stupid statement ever about Brexit, and that is saying quite a lot.

Hill deserves an award herself (for bad journalism of fake news maybe,) for producing an absurd article full of politically biased nonsense, without even properly referencing who one her alleged “experts” is.

The Guardian frequently presents fake news articles with left-wing progressive and anti – Brexit slants. Hill and Saner provide today’s examples.

As for that predicted 30-year recession:

Short-term, the EU will get hit much harder than the UK. Germany will get hit the hardest. At that point the EU, if it survives, will be ready for serious trade agreement negotiations with the UK.