They were terribly excited in The Guardian this morning The G’s hyperbolic story accompanying this polls is a comedy masterpiece) and the Twitterati were ecstatic over an opinion poll that showed Labour establishing a six point lead over the Conservatives.
Panelbase have figures of CON 31%(-2), LAB 37%(+4), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 16%(-1), GRN 4%(-1) (tabs)
Instantly forgetting the 1992 debacle in Sheffield when Neil Kinnock declared victory a week before the election which the Tories went on to win with a modest but comfortable majority, the Twatterati were quick to proclaim that the race was over, Labour were running away with the contest, the Tory vote was crumbling and UKIP were a lingering memory of a bad smell.
Pity they did not look at the full result from the poll, which if it shows Labour pulling away from the Conservative, also shows UKIP positively surging.
The other two polls published yesterday morning were not quite so full of joy for the left:
TNS have topline figures of CON 30%(-3), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 19%(+3), GRN 4%(-1) (tabs)
Survation have figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 15%(-3), GRN 4%(+2) (tabs)
Look at that TNS result, UKIP 19%; on that basist isn’t it us Kippers who should be celebrating rather than supporters of the The National Socialist British (public sector) Workers Party. Well no,because even though Panelbase and Survation give UKIP 16% and 15% respectively, we wise old heads know better than to get carried away with a few decent poll scores when the mood is volatile and differing methods of weighting to allow for incresed support for UKIP, The Greens and Nationalists will have an unquantifiable effect.
And just as well the Kippers are level headed and objective. Two polls published late yesterday tell a different story again, giving the Conservatives a narrow lead and puttig UKIP at they level they have been polling for some time now:
ComRes / Daily Mail: CON 34%(-2), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 12%(+3), UKIP 12%(nc), GRN 4%(-1)
YouGov / Sun: CON 35%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%.
Read more on the details of these polls and follow the daily polling results with UK Polling Report
The only conclusion the objective spectator can draw from all this is that jumping to conclusions on the basis of a single poll is a mugs game.