Germany sliding into ‘dangerous’ anti-Europe hysteria warns top economist


Isobel Schnable – worried about anti EU mood in Germany

As Germany’s economy continues to stutter one of the country’s top economists has warned the country is desending into “anti-Europe hysteria” amid growing criticism in the country of the European Central Bank (ECB) and surging support for the Eurosceptic, anti – immigration AfD Party.

Marcel Fratzscher said the entire European Union would be damaged by the backlash against the ECB’s austerity policies and the cost to Germany of propping up the single currency. Mr Fratscher is chief of the German Institute for Economic Research in Berlin and has also been an executive of the Eurozone’s central bank. He told UK financial newspaper The Financial Times: “Germany is sliding into a dangerous anti-Europe, anti-ECB mood, which threatens to damage the ECB’s credibility, the Euro an ultimately all of Europe.”

The warning comes less than two weeks after Chancellor Merkel’s ruling coalition suuffered heavy defeats intwo regional elections and Germany’s newly appointed ECB board member Isabel Schnabel called on her fellow economists to tone down their scathing analysis of the ECB’s performance. Ms Schnabel, an economics professor at the University of Bonn, predicted a crisis for the Euro if Germans did not take a step back to reflect on their country’s direction. Unfortunately for EU fans in Germany, voters have had years to reflect on the direction in which Merkel is leading the country and have decided they do not like it.

In an attempt to appeal to other German economists Schnable tweeted: “Dear fellow German economists, if you are wondering what you can do for Europe: Please help to dispel the harmful & wrong narratives about the ECB’s monetary policy, floating around in political and media circles. These threaten the euro more than many other things.”

This is rather spurious as nobody takes any notice of economists because they are always wrong. And the voters are in no mood to listen.

Unfortunately, the majority of Germans are opposed to further political and economic integration of EU member states, the country is politically polarised and with left and right more opposed to the idea of working with each other to bring down the government than they are to allowing Merkel’s centrist coalition to blunder on with the country politically paralyzed, it seems things can only get worse. In another blow to The Chancellor, her main coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SDP) this week lurched to the left by electing a far left candidate as its leader.

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Cracks In EU Unity Facade Are Beginning To Show

Coincidental with the bizarre events in the UK’s Supreme Coirt, where judges tried to usurp the power of parliament to themselves in a globaloist bid to stop Brexit, the economic situation in Europe, which as we have reported many times is dire, has entered into a critical period.  With one of the two net contributors o the EU treasury about to leave,Germany, which for decades has propped up the bloc financially as more and more economic basket cases were absorbed into Brussels’ wannabe empire, has stumbled into if not actually a recession then something very like one

Year on Year (YoY) growth in the German economy, from July 2018, July 2019 is 0.4% – what you would expect in the middle of a depression, and significantly less than the official inflation rate (while the real rate of inflation is, predictably, higher still. UK growth figures are slightly better coming in at 1.2%. Poor old Italy recorded a GDP growth of -0.1% YoY, (that’s a minus sign by the way).

Italy has a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 132% and finally France with a growth rate of 1.4% and a debt-to-GDP of 97% is effectively broke. That’s the big four in the EU/Eurozone.

So, the biggest economies in EU/Eurozone have a growth rate ranging from -0.1% to 1.4%. Oh, and I almost forgot negative interest rates are now becoming the norm in The Eurozon and 85% of German Bunds are non-performing and/or at negative interest rates.

Inexplicably the ECB is getting geared up for another round of QE, which means that the euro is going to be devalued. Of course, the Americans aren’t going to be best pleased with this turn of events but doubling down on the policy that failed is par for the course with the EU. Only a few years ago they decided the way to resolve the problem of mass immigration was ………… more mass immigration, and are currently proposing more politicalintegration of member states to counter the resurgence in nationalism triggered by …………….. wait for it ………………. forcing political integration on member states.

By failing to support US trade tariffs on nations that have pissed off Washington, the EU has involved itself peripherally in the US tade war with the world. but this can onlu=y increase problems. Germany in its present economic travails, and lined up to take the biggest economic hit from Brexit, is not going to welcome any increased costs for its export industries.

Most importantly this includes the cost of the raw material essential to Germany’s manufacturing/export sector. Natural Gas and oil are piped to Germany from Russia and the construction the of Nordstream 2 pipeline, which the US wants to alt to put Putin in his place, is crucial to the German economy. America wants to force Germany to buy more expensive, less reliable, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) by taking alternative suppliers out of the picture and is threatening to impose sanctions on any company and/or state to get their own way.

GERMANY’S ENTSCHEIDUNGSZEIT (DECISION TIME)

This is a clearly a case of “deja vu all over again” and a moment of truth for the Germans. Do they do what the Americans tell them, which would be economic suicide, or will they pursue their national interests and give Uncle Sam the finger. This was precisely the setting in 1985 though with Japan then the object of US financial and economic destabilisation.

The Plaza Accord was a joint-agreement, signed on 22 September 1985, at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, between France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, to devalue the U.S. dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Mark. The resulting recessionary impact which pushed up the value of the Yen against the dollar in Japan’s export-dependent economy.

This created an incentive for the expansionary monetary policies that led to the Japanese investment bubble of the late 1980s. The Plaza Accord triggered the Japanese asset price bubble, which progressed into a protracted period of deflation and low growth in Japan known as the first Lost Decade. Has Germany, and by implication Europe learned the lesson one wonders?

Bearing this in mind it should also be noted that Germany is a big investor in Russia.

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Italy PM Giuseppe Conte resigns, launches blistering attack on deputy Matteo Salvini

In another huge blow to the efforts of the Brussels bureaucracy to create an illusion of solidarity among remaining EU member states in the run up to Brexit, Italy’s Prime Minister Guiseppe Conte has resigned, citing the behaviour of his Deputy Matteo Salvini the man who was prevented from assuming the leadership of Italy after his party won the most recent election, by Brussels’ undemocratic refusal to accept a Eurosceptic politician as leader of any member state.

Since then the Brussels elite has constantly interfered in Italy’s political and economic life, in a bid to prevent Salvini, who as leader of League, the largest party in the Italian legislature from carrying out their populist agenda. Salvini, the de facto political leader of Italy as Conte had no party backing him and no electoral mandate has been seeking confrontation with the EU principally over immigration and economic policies.

This development is certain to end the League / Five Star governimg coalition, resulting in a general election in which the hugely popular League is likely to win an overall majority. If that is the outcome Brussels will be powerless to prevent Salvini becoming Prime Minister and his party assuming overall control. And that would certainly result in Italy Leaving the European Single Currency system (the Euro,) as a step towards quitting the EU entirely. READ MORE at Vanguard News

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Salvini Accuses Leftist Govt of Giving Away Italian Sovereignty to EUMatteo Salvini leader of the hugely popular Populist League (Lega) party, which, despite having a democratic mandate, was excluded from the government of Italy by a stitch up enigineered by the Euronazi EU Commission in Brussels, has accused Giuseppe Conte the Italian prime minister apponted by the EU, of handing over Italian sovereignty to the European Union bureaucrats

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Deal or No-Deal, Brexit Dooms the Euro

authored by Tom Luongo for Gold, Goats and Guns

Deal or No-Deal, when it comes to Brexit, the euro is toast. Markets, however, believe the fantasy of its survival. As we approach the end of July the euro clings to support at $1.11, mere pips away from a technical breakdown.

That breakdown will trigger a wave of asset liquidation and another round of negative headlines emanating from troubled German banks.

With 10 Downing St. now saying No-Deal is acceptable, the hard line negotiating tactics of the European Union have hit a rocky shore.

Because it looks like Boris Johnson is ready to give as good as he gets.

I’ve been saying this for a long time. The EU is not a tough nut to crack. They have no leverage in these Brexit negotiations.

READ ALL at Gold, Goats n’ Guns

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Yanis Varoufakis bombshell: Pound to Euro Exchange Rate ‘Paradox,’ weakness of pound against Euro is good news for UK

posted by Phil. T Looker, 22 July 2019

Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis claimed the reason why the euro is valued so highly compared to the pound or US dollar is because of a “delicious paradox” which sees the Eurozone actually being on the verge of a dramatic break-up, newly-resurfaced footage reveals.

Despite the uncertainty [surounding Brexit], the euro has largely remained strong since the 2016 referendum but, according to former Greek Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, there is a shocking reason why this has occurred.

Mr Varoufakis called it a “delicious paradox”.

In a 2018 debate at the Oxford Union, the Greek minister explained: “Why do the money markets value the euro so highly compared to the pound, the American dollar?

“Suppose you are a Singaporean, Chinese, American or even a German investor, and for some reason, you agree with me that the fragmentation of the Eurozone is at an advanced stage, and the euro has never been weaker or more problematic.

“Should you sell your euros?

“No, let me share a secret with you. You should shift your euros to a German bank account.”

Mr Varoufakis explained that if the Eurozone breaks up and all the countries revert to their pre-euro currencies, euros held in German bank accounts will be re-denominated into Deutschmarks, which will be stronger than any other European currencies because of the country’s “huge account surplus”.

READ FULL STORY at express.co.uk

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German Industrial Production Slumps For Third Month Running

Is This Why The EU Did Not Want Us To Leave?

 

Germany’s industrial base is showing consistent signs of an economic crisis amid trade tensions between the U.S. and the European Union. Output from German factories unexpectedly declined for a third consecutive month according to statistic reported by Reuters and Bloomberg.

The figures, published last Friday, showed a 1.1 percent decrease for September, missing economists’ forecast of a 0.2 percent increase. Exports from Europe’s manufacturing powerhouse fell 0.9 percent and the trade surplus, a point of contention with President Donald Trump, narrowed further.

The news came at the end of a challenging week for the Eurozone economy, with other published statistics showing fears of a trade war between western and eastern blocs denting manufacturing confidence and Germany reporting another drop in factory orders.

Berlin’s Economic Ministry blamed the apparent weakness on temporary bottlenecks related to new emission-test procedures for cars. “In light of the slow order intake but a large backlog of work, the industrial upswing should continue as the squeeze loosens,” it said in a statement, adding construction business is booming.

In the Netherlands, manufacturing production fell 0.9 percent in July, while Spanish output fell for a third time in four months. But there was better news from France, where production beat expectations by rising 0.7 percent. Separately, German labor costs rose 0.2 percent in the second quarter compared to the previous three months.

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Brutal Scenes From Greek Anti-Austerity Protests

August 20, 2018

After eight years of austerity, four governments, three bailout programs, a country full of misery, a capital full of protesters, and a whole galaxy of Molotov cocktails, firecrackers, riots, and clashes with police, Greece does not seem to have moved forward at all. As Greece prepares to exit its third bailout program since 2010, The Daily Stirrer takes a look at the latest outbreak of Greek street protests, the result of almost nine crisis-filled years.

In one particularly violent episode, a mass brawl broke out outside the Ministry of Administrative Reform in Athens, this clip shows demonstrators being rather brutally pushed back by riot police.

Mass rallies in Athens always seem to descend into violence, like the one featured below, as Greece’s parliament voted on further erosions of Greek sovereignty to unlock the EU bailout money, with protesters chanting against Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and throwing incendiary flares at police wearing anti-riot gear.

Since the Greek crisis started in late 2009, the country has racked up a massive debt and pursued strict austerity policies to unlock international emergency loans. In 2015, Greece’s creditors — the Eurozone and the IMF — launched a third stability support program in eight years. The bailout, which made up some 86 billion euros, was provided in exchange for austerity measures that included pension cuts and tax increases. It is scheduled to expire on August 20, 2018, but Greece’s road to recovery is not over yet, and will not be over until the nation is released from the suffocating constraints of The Euro (€) the European Union single currency.