Will Macron / Johnson Skulduggery Lead To A Hard Brexit?

When Boris Johnson’s Conservatives crushed the Corbyn – led, anti – Semitic, terrorist loving, far – left, borderline Maoist incarnation of the Labour Party in the UK’s General Election  on December 12 (thus giving Donald Trump’s hopes of re-election as US presiident in 2020 as the Democrats seem determinted to pick an equally whacky, far left candidate as their nomineee,) the resulting solid majority voters gave Johnson led many political pundits to predict that it would marginalise the Brexit lobby and free Johnson to negotiate a soft landing type deal with the EU.

But, love him or hate him, Johnson is a far more astute politician than that. He knows his impregnable majority is down to traditional Labour voters deserting the party, not simply over its failure to take a clear position on leaving the EU as most of mainstrwam media would have us believe, but for many identifiable reasons whoch can be condensed down to a single sentence by saying the working classes believe Labour has abandoned them and is not the party of lawyers, academics and managers.

The working classes are not stupid, though not all are highly articulate as Labour’s lawyer – politicians tend to be, and not all are academically gifted as most of Labour’s university educated candidates, parachuted into safe constituencies in working class areas by party headquarters tend to be, they know where their interests lie. And it is not in the hands of a party that would open the borders to millions of uneducated, unskilled third world migrants, or which promises to fund its profligate public spending by “taxing the rich.” Working class people are not easily fooled, they know the seriously rich have their money tied up in trust funds and investments which are protected from the taxman. And they know those investments can quickly be moved offshore should any future Maoist government threaten to seize personal assets.

They also know something which socialist economists (who generally have a sub – zero IQ rating,) remain blissfully unaware of. The majority of invested wealth is held by pension funds and investment trusts used by small savers. So Labour’s “tax the rich” pland would hit the moderately well off, the thrifty and those who had no choice but to save for retirement by paying into a company pension fund as Labour’s taxation plans have always previously hit hardest at those whose votes Labour has relied on. Well that’s socialism for you folks.

So after a hundred years, as Labour has gradually moved more and more towards becoming the party of affluent intellectuals, the working classes have seen through the pretence. Socialists do not care about the working classes, socialist care only about their votes as a stepping stone to power.

However, as previously mentioned, Boris Johnson is an astute politician, he knows that former Labour voters did not turn out and vote Conservative, instead they stayed at home and did not vote, while large numbers of traditional Conservative voters who had stayed at home in the previous election in protest as Theresa May’s inept leadership and  attempts to negotiate a leaving deal with the EU that would effectively keep the UK tied to EU law and policies made by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. And Johnson knows if he wants to be re-elected he must get the Conservative voters out again at the next election, and at least keep the Labour voters at home if he cannot persuade them to switch alliegence.

It is perhaps with all this in mind Prime Minister Johnson appears to have chosen to play it tough with the EU.

Then he could undermine Brexit by giving back all the concessions during his subsequent negotiations with the EU over a trade deal.

This analysis should have been the correct one given the staunch opposition by the political elite in the U.K. to Brepxit.

So the political situation in the UK has changed. For all the haters say about him, Boris has the likeability factor while more of Labour’s likeable figures are gone, stepp[ed down like Andy Burnham, now Mayor of Manchester, or defeated, like Caroline Flint, for may years the hottest female politician in Britain. And because the Conservatives know they must hold the working class to hold on to power, and working class voters by a considerable majority support our leaving the EU, a soft Brexit is no longer a viable way forward.

This is probably why Boris Johnson is almost channeling Nigel Farage in his ‘come and have a go if you think you’re hard enough’ approach to trade negotiations with the European Union.

The modified Withdrawal Bill passed by the new Parliament with six Labour defectors in the week before Christmas strengthens Johnson’s hand as he embarks on new trade negotiations with the organisation that said it would absolutely not renegotiate Theresas May’s Brexit In Name Only deal,  by removing any potential extension of negotiations beyond the end of 2020. There are a ton of changes noted in the Guardian article linked above covers.

The original two year transition period EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier was planning on using to bully whoever became political leader of the UK into accepting whatever one – sided conditions the EU chose to impose is gone. January 31st Brexit happens, and for the following eleven months the EU can negotiate or we leave at the end of the year on WTO terms (Hard Brexit). This would hit the EU, and particularly the EU’s biggest economies, Germany, France, Italy and Spain far harder than it will hit Britain which has an enormous deficit in its trade with the EU, largely because EU protectionism prevents us sourcing many of our imports more cheaply from outside the Union.

Although the political situation is changing in Britain, it is changing in Europe too.

Given the context of his negotiations with French President Emmanuel Macron in October which secured the current Withdrawal Treaty, it seems Boris sees more clearly than Theresa May ever did that it is Britain rather than the European Union which negotiates from a position of strength.

The keys to understanding the EU’s weakness is the shifting dynamic between France, Germany and the U.K. in relation to their relationship with the United States, the underlying weakness of the EU single currency system, The Euro, and the political weakness of Emmanuel Marcon as, after struggling for a year to resolve the internalo conflict with the Yellow Vests movement’s protests over high taxes,  he now faces a general strike against his proposed reforms to France’s retirement and pensions policy .

Simultaneously Macron is pushing France to unseat Germany as the de facto rule-setter for the EU. He wants more integration at every level, but most importantly fiscally, while the fragile coalition government led by Chancellor Merkel could fall at any time, plunging Berlin into chaos.

Macron, a former Goldman Sachs Investment Banker understands that the euro is in trouble and that around half the 27 members of the Union are economic basket cases. Since the 2008 financial crisis the European Central Bank (ECB) bought aaround €1.5trillion of junk bonds in its efforts to prop up Eurozone economies. The French president also sees the flaw in this policy is because of the lack of fiscal integration of EU member states, this puts enormous pressure on the more successful economies which are already stalling due to the EU’s expansionism. For the euro to survive at least three  things need to happen.

  1. There needs to be a single entity capable of issuing and redeeming Euro-zone sovereign debt. Until and unless that happens the weaker states will continue to issue Euro denominated bonds and rely on the ECB to buy them.
  2. The euro has to weaken considerably to remove the garrote around the necks of countries like Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece and even France. Unfortunately for the past three and a half years EU officials have been forcing the bank to keep the value ofv the Euro high to undermine the UK pound.
  3. Much of the existing sovereign debt needs to be converted into a Eurobond, doing away with much of the stock of debt as liabilities for member states like Italy and Spain.

Macron also understood that British voters would never accept the EU overturning Brexit in the same way as it had previously overturned results of democratic votes in France, Netherlands, Denmark, Ireland, Portugal, Greece, Italy and most recently Spain, and the way it had planned with the government of long term EU loyalist Theresa May. He saw the opportunity to cut Britain loose, thuse easing the path of France to more power, and to shaft Germany at the same time.

Germany will not be eager for any of these developments, the current single currency system is designed to benefit German’s manufacturing base and underwrite its mercantilism. The status quo suits Germany fine, the country has benefited handsomely from the hollowing out of member states economies through the internal trade advantages the Euro gives German business. Once the weaker economies are insolvent, Germany has used its financial clout to force debt restructuring, buying up assets at pennies on the euro. The prime example of this is what happened in Greece.

This explains why the single currency system is designed the way it is. What Emmanuel Macron sees as a flaw was in fact a plan, rather it was the plan. They may claim to have had genuine reasons for doing this, but this is classic colonialism.

But, what does this have to do with Brexit? Quite a lot actually.

Macron installed convicted criminal and former IMF chief Christine Lagarde as head of the ECB to push for fiscal integration and to politically blackmail the Germans into going along with it.

How? By threatening to write down or allowing default on the massive $850 billion in TARGET 2 liabilities German banks have in euro-zone sovereign debt on their balance sheets.

But there’s no way City of London and the crown would survive the British people’s anger at underwriting the costs of this shakedown and subsequent debt crisis.

Nigel Farage and the other hard Brexiteers understood that this was a key issue, but one that didn’t resonate with voters. Fishing rights and immigration get people to the polls, not bailing out German banks.

But, make no mistake, Farage, the old commodities trader, knows that breaking the British banking system free from the EU’s and put up a hard border, as it were, between them is the key to a successful Brexit.

And I suspect, after it was clear they couldn’t convince the British people otherwise, that City of London and the Crown saw this as well.

So, Macron and Johnson looked at the landscape clearly and with the blessing of the British political class negotiated a settlement.

By allowing Johnson and the U.K. to get clear of the fiscal and political storm, Macron gets even more leverage over Germany whose economy is the one hurt most by a hard Brexit.

The Germans run a huge trade surplus with the U.K. Cutting that down weakens the euro and Germany at the same time.

Germany will insist on bail-ins of depositors versus bailing out the Italian government. But Macron realizes the only way for the EU to survive the coming debt crisis is to over-ride Germany’s deflationary attitudes. They are going to have to print euros like no tomorrow.

He may throw Merkel a bone in the negotiations but it won’t be much. Macron is many things, but he’s not stupid. He knows the Euroskeptic populists will eventually rise to power in Italy, Spain, Portugal and potentially even Germany. He knows he’s in trouble in France. And he knows the wheels have come off Merkel’s federalization bandwagon because German taxpayers are sick of propping up the European Projectfinancially.

The miserable results returned by the two leading German political parties supporting moves towards a federal Europe are an indicator of the public’s disillusionment with EU policy. Prime Minister Johnson may be just what France has been waiting for in order to tip the balance of power in its favour.

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Europe’s Nationalists Unite Behind Salvini Ahead Of EU Elections

With the EU elections due in May this year expected to deliver another body blow to the dream of a Federal European superstate, Europe’s more conservative nationalist parties have today announced an alliance that is aiming to become the strongest group in the European Parliament, with a view to forcing to radical reform on the EU bureaucracy in Brussels, which dictates policy on security, migration, family and the environment, according to Euro News.

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Merkel: EU Members Must Cede control Of Their Border To Brussels

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#
The former Prime Minister of little Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker to ensure his chief of staff was installed as the new Secretary-General of the European Commission, in what one senior Eurocrat has called “an impeccably prepared and audacious power-grab” at the top of the European Union.

Amsterdam Gridlocked Again As Dutch Farmers Protest EU Green Laws

The protests against EU globalism and the unofficial appointment of Swedish baby troll Greta Thunberg as head of European environment policy continue to grow and become more disruptive. Last weeken it was France that bore the brunt of citizens anger, today it was Amsterdam and The Netherlands.

In a protest similar to previous ones in Germany and Netherlands, Amsterdam was gridlocked with throusands of farm tractors being driven slowly to disrupt traffic flow in the Dutch capital in a zero-notice strike following the Dutch government voting to pass new, highly unpopular green legislation that will damage the already struggling agricultural and construction sectors.

While the protest was peaceful and good humoured, with Dutch Newspaper De Telegraaf reporting that farmers gave out hot coffee to the police officers on duty in the cold weather, armoured vehicles manned by the Dutch government’s military police were seen deployed at likely flashpoints as the tractors got closer to the parliament buildings. Protests in France against green laws that will be ruinous for farmers and transport businesses have frequenntly become violent.

The protest clearly took the police by surprise, and its planning took place in secret, with organisers reportedly referring to it as a “surprise attack” on Amsterdam.

The “surprise attack” came in response to the government passing an EU law enforcing with draconian penalties strict limits on nitrogen emissions, with similar laws being passed by the democratically elected governments of all European Union member states in response to the diktats of unelected bureaucrats in Brussels on green policies. Farmer’s groups dispute the way emissions are measured and claim their work is not as damaging as governments claim, and regardless, as their protest banners state without farming there can be no food.
The smooth – face pen pushers in their luxurious offices haven’t thought that one through have they?

Particularly supportive of the farmers case is Anti – EU politician Geert Wilders, who while notorious for his opposition to the Islamification of the Netherlands and Europe, is a populist and stands with voters against the European Union. He called the farmers “heroes” Wednesday and said he supported them against the anti-nitrogen “frenzy” that would destroy their livelihoods.

As the government of Poland has today stated its desire to leave the EU it can only be a matter od time before this cultural Marxist attempt to merge the free and democratic member states into a Soviet style federation crumbles.

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EU should fear the jihadists it’s backing in Syria, not refugees – Assad

from RT

In an exclusive interview with RT’s Afshin Rattansi, Syrian President Bashar Assad said it’s hypocrisy for European nations to fear that Ankara will send refugees to Europe, but continue to sponsor terrorism in Syria.

The Syrian leader argued that the primary concern for Europe should not be the Syrian refugees which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan now threatens to release to Europe, but the “hundreds of thousands” of jihadists Europe allied itself with.

How can you fear those few millions, the majority of them are moderates and they have few terrorists, while you support those terrorists directly in tens of thousands at least and maybe hundreds of thousands in Syria and you don’t fear that they’re going to go back to your country?

Assad told Afshin Rattansi that while there might be some extremists among those who fled the war-torn country, the majority of the refugees do not pose any acute threat, as opposed to hardened jihadists who may turn on their patrons …

READ FULL STORY at RT

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Yellow Vests Week 43: Tensions Escalate Again As France’s Protests Continue

For the Yellow Vests movement in France, September 7th was billed as a come back from the summer break when there has been a lull in activity. France traditionally comes to a near standstill in August each year as the French head off on their annual vacation, and the protest movement was no exception.

Unpopular French President Emmanuel Macron tried to take political advantage of this distraction to advance one of his many unpopular policies, pension reform plans that will create a single national pension system with higher contributions for individual taxpayers and lower ones for business, thus stoking up the potential for an escalation of protests to the levels witnessed earlier in the year.

Former investment banker Macron is not trusted on the pension issue by 70 percent of the population according to polls and his plan is seen as a ruse to lift the retirement age to 64 from 62 and a continuation of broader policies to tax workers more to pay for the welfare state while cutting taxes for business and wealthy individuals in the name of economic stimulation and competitiveness in the world economy.

The vehicle fuel taxes that triggered the fist protests last year were ostensibly “green” but in effect they served the same purpose of relieving the tax burden on business and shifting it onto the general population.

The notion that business comes before environmental concerns reinforced by word going into the Newsdump Weekend that pesticide use in France will be allowed within distances ranging between 15 and 30 feet of schools and homes.  Environmental activists and the EELV environmentalist party expressing their opposition to the plans. Such policies have destroyed Marcon’s credibility as they contradict his pretence to be heading a ‘green’ government, having made grandiose but unachievable promises to phase out petroleum and diesel vehicles and make France a net zero emissions economy by 2040.

Thousands took to the streets of France to protest today, not in the huge numbers at the height of the movement in the early months, but significantly up on recent weeks.

Demonstrations took place in Paris, Bordeaux, Montpellier and Rouen as part of Yellow Vests’ “Act 43” rally. In some cities, particularly Montpellier, the protests turned violent with clashes between the participants and riot police. Violence was also reported in Rouen.

“The demonstrators threw projectiles on the police as protests continued into the night. Summations were made and there was the use of tear gas in response to the throwing of projectiles, the protesters were rejected and returned outside the perimeter,” the sub-prefect of permanence, Jean-Éric Winckler, said as quoted by AFP.

The first blockages Yellow Vests began early in the morning on Saturday, November 17, 2018 in Seine-Maritime.

Yellow Vests protestors in Rouen (picture: http://www.chb44.com )

​In Montpellier, between 1,500 and 3,000 people took part in the rally, with clashes also reported near the city’s station. According to AFP, some of the protesters fired projectiles, prompting the police to use tear gas.

Protestors in Montpellier use umbrellas as makeshift shields (Picture: Daily Mail )

Some incidents and clashes were also reported in Lille, where more than 600 protesters took part in the rally (according to a police source), while the Yellow Vests say the number of demonstrators there stood at 1,500.

Meanwhile, during a rally in Paris, an emblematic figure of the Yellow Vests movement, Éric Drouet, was fined twice “for organizing an undeclared event” and was ordered to leave the perimeter.

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Deal or No-Deal, Brexit Dooms the Euro

authored by Tom Luongo for Gold, Goats and Guns

Deal or No-Deal, when it comes to Brexit, the euro is toast. Markets, however, believe the fantasy of its survival. As we approach the end of July the euro clings to support at $1.11, mere pips away from a technical breakdown.

That breakdown will trigger a wave of asset liquidation and another round of negative headlines emanating from troubled German banks.

With 10 Downing St. now saying No-Deal is acceptable, the hard line negotiating tactics of the European Union have hit a rocky shore.

Because it looks like Boris Johnson is ready to give as good as he gets.

I’ve been saying this for a long time. The EU is not a tough nut to crack. They have no leverage in these Brexit negotiations.

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Yanis Varoufakis bombshell: Pound to Euro Exchange Rate ‘Paradox,’ weakness of pound against Euro is good news for UK

posted by Phil. T Looker, 22 July 2019

Former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis claimed the reason why the euro is valued so highly compared to the pound or US dollar is because of a “delicious paradox” which sees the Eurozone actually being on the verge of a dramatic break-up, newly-resurfaced footage reveals.

Despite the uncertainty [surounding Brexit], the euro has largely remained strong since the 2016 referendum but, according to former Greek Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, there is a shocking reason why this has occurred.

Mr Varoufakis called it a “delicious paradox”.

In a 2018 debate at the Oxford Union, the Greek minister explained: “Why do the money markets value the euro so highly compared to the pound, the American dollar?

“Suppose you are a Singaporean, Chinese, American or even a German investor, and for some reason, you agree with me that the fragmentation of the Eurozone is at an advanced stage, and the euro has never been weaker or more problematic.

“Should you sell your euros?

“No, let me share a secret with you. You should shift your euros to a German bank account.”

Mr Varoufakis explained that if the Eurozone breaks up and all the countries revert to their pre-euro currencies, euros held in German bank accounts will be re-denominated into Deutschmarks, which will be stronger than any other European currencies because of the country’s “huge account surplus”.

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Court Overturns Fine Imposed By Biased Electoral Commission On Brexit Supporter.

A large fine imposed by a kangaroo court under the auspices of the UK’s democracy watchdog (allegedly,) The Electoral Commission,  on a young, working-class Brexit campaign organiser, Darren Grimes, has been overturned in the law courts. The case, which many Remain campaigners have used in their efforts to discredit and overturn the result of the 2016 referendum on EU membership.

82031881_darrengrimespic
Darren Grimes (picture source: bbci.co.uk/)

The Electoral Commission is a supposedly impartial watchdog which has been criticised by Brexit supporters and Conservative campaigners for showing political bias both in the referendum and in cases arising from parliamentary and regional elections, is made up exclusively of pro – EU bureaucrats and former politicians. It’s judicial panel hit Grimes with the maximum individual fine of £20,000 although he is a student whose only income apart from his local authority grant is from a part-time job in a shop. His offence, apart from opposing the official narrative that sovereignty is an anachronism and all government power should be handed to supra national bodies made up of unelected bureaucrats, was based on accusations his youth-focused BeLeave group had been used as a conduit for the transfer of funds to the official ‘Vote Leave’ campaign, enabling it to exceed its spending limits.

After a cursory investigation of the allegations, the The Electoral Commission claimed that Grimes had exceeded BeLeave’s spending limits and wrongly reported them. For this he was reported to London’s Politically Correct Thought Police as well as imposing the excessive fine.

Grimes was adamant the judgement was incorrect and launched an appeal financed by crowdfunding, claiming that evidence had been ignored and his punishment was unjust as well as excessive. His legal fund was swelled by many contributions from individuals who supported Brexit. The arrogant elitists of the Electoral Commission went into overdrive in a bid to destroy an ordinary man for having the audacity to challenge them and proceeded to throw hundreds of thousands of pounds in taxpayer cash into railroading the court to uphold its fine and impose further penalties on Grimes .

The watchdog’s high powered legal team were unsuccessful however, with the County Court completely overturning the Electoral Commission’s fine after examining ALL the evidence in the case, concluding the verdict had been based on an extreme interpretation of a trivial human error.

“I am delighted and relieved that the Court has found me innocent,” Daren told the Guido Fawkes political blog after the verdict was announced, saying the case had “taken a huge toll on myself and my family”.

“The Electoral Commission’s case was based on an incorrectly ticked box on an application form – something that it had been aware of for over two years and had not been raised in two previous investigations,” he said.

“Yet the Commission still saw fit to issue an excessive fine and to spend almost half a million in taxpayer cash pursuing me through the courts… Today’s verdict is a victory against the Remain Establishment which has done all it can to try and discredit the biggest electoral victory in this country’s history,” he added.

“The powerful vested interests in this country don’t like the idea of the people taking back control… There has been a well- funded, coordinated campaign against me and those that have stood up to the Remain Establishment. Well today they have lost.”

N.B. had Guido not broken the story we would not have known of it as, predictably, it was totally blanked by mainstream media.

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How Much Does The UK Actually Send To The EU

Big kerfuffle this week over Conservative leadership contender Boris Johnson facing trial for his claim, during the EU Referendum campaign, that Britain sends £350million a week to Brussels. Originally the Remainers claimed somebody in the Leave camp had said all the money would go to the NHS. Nobody actually said that but if fanatics want something to be true, they can easily convince themselves it is.

The claim is in fact true but misleading. If the amount paid into the EU budget is taken, then it is close to £350million a week. Our net contribution (i.e. after the amount paid by the EU to fund various EU supported projects means the net amount we contribute to the EU is somewhat less. However that £350million is not the full story:


Little Donny Tusk The Polish Has-Been Tells Britain How To Vote.

Donald Tusk, who is the President of the European Council and was the centre-right Europhile Prime Minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014 made the remarks in support of his former Deputy Prime Minister, Anglo-Pole Jan-Vincent Rostowski who is standing as a Change UK candidate in London for Thursday’s election.

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Nigel Farage, who led the successful Brexit campaign, warned backsliding elitist politicians on Tuesday that his Brexit Party would spark a political “revolution” – a cliched line but appropriate given the mood of the country – and strike fear into the hearts of ineffectual Tories who have so far failed to deliver on the promise of the Brexit referendum if the UK is forced to contest EU Parliament elections as part of Prime Minister Theresa May’s, the Sun newspaper reports … MORE>>> .


There are sheeple who want to remain in the EU at any price, and then there are people who understand the EU

I am not sure people really are up for reading EU related documents or a whole load more people would be less excited about the EU. If people read the chequers plan and the political declaration they would know the only people who leave the EU are the financial sector. Everyone else stays in without a vote or veto for two years whilst we negotiate the long term deal…

Farage Says New Brexit Party Will Spark “A Political Revolution” And Terrify The Tories

Nigel Farage, who led the successful Brexit campaign, warned backsliding elitist politicians on Tuesday that his brexit Party would spark a political “revolution” – a cliched line but appropriate given the mood of the country – and strike fear into the hearts of ineffectual Tories who have so far failed to deliver on the promise of the Brexit referendum if the UK is forced to contest EU Parliament elections as part of Prime Minister Theresa May’s, the Sun newspaper reports … MORE>>> .

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