Disastrous Manufacturing Figure Herald German Economic Recession

Germany has long been the prop that held up the economically feeble EU, in which more than helf the 27 members that will remain in the bloc after Britain leaves are economic basket cases (some due only to the strictures of Eurozone membership, others because of the traditional weakness of their national economies,) so with Germany slipping towards the recession we and other well informed blogs and news site have predicted since Merkel’s ‘open doors’ immigration policy allowed a couple of million iliterate, uneducated, unskilled and unemployable immigrants to flood into the country, incresing the bill for welfare services exponentially, problems for Germany’s high – tech manufacturing led economy which needs highly skilled, well educated and adaptable workers and professionals was inevitable.

When we wrote about the early signs of recession in the German economy we were scoffed at, called far – right nut jobs and conspiracy theorists, and inevitably, racists because anyone but a racist would know that a couple of millon unemployable immigrants living on benefits can only boost a high – tech economy.

Today, for all the auusurances by Europhile politicians and bureaucrats that everything in the European Union is on the up and up, Germany is on red alert for recession following the biggest collapse in activity for its mighty industrial sector since the financial crisis. Technically Germany already is in recession, they’re just not willing to admit it.

The eurozone’s bigge,t and most powerful economy relies on exports but its car industry has been punished by a slowing global economy,   government policies promoting electric vehichles which nobody want to buy because they are hideously expensive and useless, and the fallout of the trade war between the US and China.

Financial information service IHS Markit’s latest snapshot of Germany’s manufacturing growth – where a score under 50 signals contraction – dipped to 41.4, its worst level since 2009, as demand from non – EU trading partners slumped. There were also worrying signs that the manufacturing slump is spreading to the service sector after firms in that sector experience their first fall in new business since 2014.

Confidence among German businesses is the weakest since 2012, private sector job creation is stalling after six years of growth and companies are eating into backlogs as new orders begin to dry up, the figures showed.

Germany’s economy shrank an overall 0.1pc between April and June. Monday’s dire survey data comes after recent official figures showed a sharp 0.6pc drop in industrial production in July.

Phil Smith, principal economist at IHS Markit, said Germany’s manufacturing data was “simply awful”, with combined readings for services and manufacturers “firmly in contraction territory” and the weakest for almost seven years.

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The Daily Stirrer
 

Cracks In EU Unity Facade Are Beginning To Show

Coincidental with the bizarre events in the UK’s Supreme Coirt, where judges tried to usurp the power of parliament to themselves in a globaloist bid to stop Brexit, the economic situation in Europe, which as we have reported many times is dire, has entered into a critical period.  With one of the two net contributors o the EU treasury about to leave,Germany, which for decades has propped up the bloc financially as more and more economic basket cases were absorbed into Brussels’ wannabe empire, has stumbled into if not actually a recession then something very like one

Year on Year (YoY) growth in the German economy, from July 2018, July 2019 is 0.4% – what you would expect in the middle of a depression, and significantly less than the official inflation rate (while the real rate of inflation is, predictably, higher still. UK growth figures are slightly better coming in at 1.2%. Poor old Italy recorded a GDP growth of -0.1% YoY, (that’s a minus sign by the way).

Italy has a Debt-to-GDP ratio of 132% and finally France with a growth rate of 1.4% and a debt-to-GDP of 97% is effectively broke. That’s the big four in the EU/Eurozone.

So, the biggest economies in EU/Eurozone have a growth rate ranging from -0.1% to 1.4%. Oh, and I almost forgot negative interest rates are now becoming the norm in The Eurozon and 85% of German Bunds are non-performing and/or at negative interest rates.

Inexplicably the ECB is getting geared up for another round of QE, which means that the euro is going to be devalued. Of course, the Americans aren’t going to be best pleased with this turn of events but doubling down on the policy that failed is par for the course with the EU. Only a few years ago they decided the way to resolve the problem of mass immigration was ………… more mass immigration, and are currently proposing more politicalintegration of member states to counter the resurgence in nationalism triggered by …………….. wait for it ………………. forcing political integration on member states.

By failing to support US trade tariffs on nations that have pissed off Washington, the EU has involved itself peripherally in the US tade war with the world. but this can onlu=y increase problems. Germany in its present economic travails, and lined up to take the biggest economic hit from Brexit, is not going to welcome any increased costs for its export industries.

Most importantly this includes the cost of the raw material essential to Germany’s manufacturing/export sector. Natural Gas and oil are piped to Germany from Russia and the construction the of Nordstream 2 pipeline, which the US wants to alt to put Putin in his place, is crucial to the German economy. America wants to force Germany to buy more expensive, less reliable, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) by taking alternative suppliers out of the picture and is threatening to impose sanctions on any company and/or state to get their own way.

GERMANY’S ENTSCHEIDUNGSZEIT (DECISION TIME)

This is a clearly a case of “deja vu all over again” and a moment of truth for the Germans. Do they do what the Americans tell them, which would be economic suicide, or will they pursue their national interests and give Uncle Sam the finger. This was precisely the setting in 1985 though with Japan then the object of US financial and economic destabilisation.

The Plaza Accord was a joint-agreement, signed on 22 September 1985, at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, between France, West Germany, Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom, to devalue the U.S. dollar in relation to the Japanese yen and German Mark. The resulting recessionary impact which pushed up the value of the Yen against the dollar in Japan’s export-dependent economy.

This created an incentive for the expansionary monetary policies that led to the Japanese investment bubble of the late 1980s. The Plaza Accord triggered the Japanese asset price bubble, which progressed into a protracted period of deflation and low growth in Japan known as the first Lost Decade. Has Germany, and by implication Europe learned the lesson one wonders?

Bearing this in mind it should also be noted that Germany is a big investor in Russia.

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Green Hysteria Is Destroying German Economy

Car making is Germany’s biggest earner (picture: Wikimedia commons)

This blog has reported many times that the mighty German economy is heading into trouble because it’s political elite, led by wannabe saint Angela Merkel is more concerned with climate change scaremongering and importing millions of illiterate, unemployable their world migrants in an orgy of virtue signalling.

The bigest single industrial sector in the German economy, automobile manufacturing, currently acts as the real engine driving the country’s economy, but as taxes rse to support a burgeoning welfare bill, and sales plummet due to the pomotion of expensive, inefficient and, it has to be said, incredibly dirty electric cars, it looks as if the situation may be in fora dramatic change for the worse according to new report from economists Matthias Weik and Marc Friedrich in a commentary at the online news portal of the (German Midsize Companies News – DMN).

This blog would not normally advise readers to take not of economists’ speculations but in this case their conclusions coincide with the opinions of a number of hard headed businessmen who see trouble ahead for the economic powerhouse that propos up the European Union.

Weik and Friedrich base their view of the economic direction of the German economy and how it is seriously threatened by the country’s obsession with climate considerations based on very dodgy science, and an irrational policy of opening the borders to all arrivals from third world nations, and how policymakers are neglecting key industries on evidence that Germany’s ruling elite are unduly influenced by certain left leaning academics whose thinking is heavily influenced by the so called Cultural Marxism of The Frankfurt Schoool of twentieth century econopmics.

Weik and Friedrich say German politicians have been naive and too easily influenced by noisy minorities and attention seeking scientists and  in their panic to save the planet from an alleged climate meltdown have, in the process of ruined the German economy.

“Everybody is talking about the climate, yet no one is talking about the economic climate,” Weik and Friedrich say. in common with many investment managers and industrialists, the two economists warn of a coming recession, one that will be “hard as nails” as the green activist and Social Justice Warrior onslaught on western, and particularly German industry intensifies.

According to the Weik and Friedrich, already “the seasonally adjusted and real order intake of German industry fell by 8.6 percent compared to the same month last year! For the tenth month in a row, it is going down!” So while the government and the Bundesbank juggle figures frantically, in fact Germany is already technically in recession. (The usual measure for growth / recession is GDP but when a government pumps €billions into the economy so it can hand out massive benefits to immigrants, which they spend in the economy, the resulting ‘growth’ is illusory.

“Companies such as Deutsche Bank, BASF, Bayer, Siemens, Thyssen, Ford have begun “massive job cuts or announced plans to do so in anticipation of the hard times ahead.”

The authors say that words, such as “unemployment” and “layoffs”, will soon be dominating the media and that “no one will talk about the shortage of skilled workers anymore, let alone climate change”.

The consequences of a major recession in manufacturing would send economic shock waves not through Germany but also throughout the European Union (EU) which massively relies on revenues generated by the German automotive industry, as has been well documented for years.

Weik and Friedrich write that Germany’s green and globalist policies have “negligently gambled away” prosperity and that the “coming climate change in the economy will nip all irrelevant sham debates in the bud.”

They add: “The heated discussions and hysteria are a sign of the famous late Roman decadence and a warning sign of the crash. For many who demonstrate today, there will be no jobs in Germany tomorrow.”

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German economic crisis: industrial output plunges to ‘disaster’ level

 

EU Talks Tough But George Galloway Exposes Their Bluff

George Galloway is a man I suspect most people here have little time for but from time to time he does talk sense and he’s certainly on target with his latest comments on Brext, which concern leaked information from Berlin that suggest the German government’s tough talk about not reopening negotiations with the UK to reach a more reasonable deal are just bluff. Galloway says that in private German politicians and business leaders are saying the EU needs a deal as much as the UK, if not more. This aligns with what I’m hearing from other sources in The City, in politics and in the EU. Let’s hope if it comes down to a High Noon type face off, Boris is playing Gary Cooper.

EU may talk tough, but it needs Brexit deal as much as UK – Galloway on German leaks — RT UK News

Both sides may try to seem tough ahead of Brexit talks, but the EU needs the deal as much as the UK, George Galloway said in reference to leaks claiming that Germany is reluctant to renegotiate an agreement with Britain.

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German economic crisis: industrial output plunges to ‘disaster’ level -other economic data revised down

This news site and our sister publication Original Boggart Blog have spent three years arguing logically and reasonably against the emotionally overwrought ravings of people who supported ‘Remain’ in the 2016 EU referendum and cannot accept they lost. Brexit will be a catastrophe, they scream, people will starve, we wil have no medicines or toilet rolls, no food or water or beer or anything, toilets will explode and spew boiling sewage and blood into our homes, aircraft will fall out of the sky, clocks will run backwards and our nostrils will be assailed by wet dog smelss because no nation of a mere 60 million people can survive outside the EU.

And those of us stubborn enough to pick up the gauntlet have pointed out that Canada (30 millonish) Australia (20someting million, New Zealand (more sheep than people,) and the 85% of the world’s nations that are not EU members seem to do OK. And then we have backed up our assertions with evendence that since the referendum was won by Leave predictions of economic collapse for britain have failed to materialise, while for most EU nations, stagnation is turning into recession. The latest evidence for this is another news item showing the mighty German economy, on which the EU has always depended and will depend even more once the UK leaves, is running into trouble.

Yesterday (6 August 2019) it was announced that industrial production in Germany dropped by a greater degree than expected in June, showing a 1.5% month on month decrease, thus compounding fears that Europe’s biggest economy is facing an imminent recession.

Output fell 5.2 per cent year on year from June 2018, the German national statistics office revealed on. According to Reuters, analysts had estimated output would fall 0.4 per cent during the month compared with May. Production, excluding energy and construction, was down 1.8 per cent.

These figures from Destatis come only a day after the same source revealed that factory orders, driven by an increase in demand from countries outside the eurozone, were higher than expected. While those figures offered a glimmer of hope among a plethora of bad news for EU economies and particularly for Europe’s economic powerhouse, business analysts pointed out that new orders have dropped by an average of 0.7 per cent every month throughout this year.

June’s decline in output “kills off any hopes that the strong orders data published yesterday marked the beginning of a recovery”, said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. “Business surveys uniformly point to a further contraction in July, so things look set to get worse rather than better.”

Other economic data published this week included revised down figures for services that showed the sector in Germany had grown at a slower rate in July than had been earlier thought, prompting fears that the eurozone’s biggest economy is heading into a recession.

German website Handelsblatt commented: “If both sides remain stubborn, this can jeopardise the stability of the financial markets.

Concerns that the industrial output drop exacerbates long – standing fears over German economy first appeared on The Financial Times website. That such concerns are being expressed by serious economics writers in a heavyweight publication like The Financial Times exposes the level of scaremongering based on fake news that hasd been used in the Brexit debate by those determined to overturn the result and deny the democratically expressed will of the people.

Germany slips into economic meltdown as US-China trade war escalates
Germany looks to be headed for economic meltdown (as this publication has predicted since early in the year,) due to the trade war between the US and China […] Sebastian Dullien of the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research claimed the German Chancellor is burying her head in the sand regarding how Trump’s tariffs will impact German exports …

Germany: Economy crisis a growth stalls – car production crashes
Germany’s federal Government today reduced its growth forecast for the EU’s largest economy today after for the second time in two months as plunging car production figures sent shockwaves through the Eurozone. The German economy, already technically in recession, has been propping up the economically stagnant EU for years. After Brexit of course …


Europe’s Bank Crisis Arrives In Germany: €29 Billion Bremen Landesbank On The Verge Of Failure

… yesterday we observed a surprising development involving Deutsche Bank, namely the bank’s decision to quietly liquidate some of its shipping loans. Reuters reported, “Deutsche Bank is looking to sell at least $1 billion of shipping loans [a market sector] whose lenders face closer scrutiny from the European Central Bank.


Europe Prepares To Join The Currency War

Things seemed to be going to plan for the European Unon’s single currecncy, The Euro, which was the biggest single step in the plan to merge the twenty eight member states into a single political entity. Ties to the German economic powerhouse the poorer nations of southern Europe could not manage their finances efficiently and soon became dependent on bailouts from the European Central Bank with were made with attached conditions suggested by Germany. It seemed that as long as the German economy prospered the ‘European project,’ (referred to, a tad unkindly perhaps, by this news site among others as Greater Germany,) would stay on track.


Germany admits hard Brexit will cause havoc in EU financial markets – ‘Common sense MUST prevail’

Germany, the EU’s most powerful economy, has urged Prime Minister Theresa May and the EU’s chief negotiator, the pompous French clown Michel Barnier to do all in their power to avoid a hard Brexit due to risks of French instransigence disrupting the financial sector. This would be catastrophic for the EU’s financial markets, though the leading German economists say the prospect is becoming “more likely every day”.

Lame Duck Merkel Snubbed As EU Leaders Reject Her Choice Of “Half Baked” Socialist For Top EU Job

While Trump’s handshake with an insignificant little fat man, the pro – democracy protests in Hong Kong, the latest exchanges in the US / China trade war and Boris Johnson’s bid to replace the hapless Theresa May as the next UK Prime Minister have dominated mainstream news over the past few days, another story which did not attract anywhere near as much attention could perhaps have far more long term significance. The profression of the ‘European Project’ from a free trade association of friendly and culturally similar nations to a federal superstate suffered its most serious setback to date as the first cracks appeared in the facade of neo – liberal unity presented by the centre – right / centre – left, globalist consensus bloc that has dominated the Union for decades, appeared as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ‘s anointed candate to succeed Jean – Clauder Juncker as the president of the European Commission was rejected by other EU leaders.

MerkelMerkel feels her power slipping away (Source: Bloomberg)

In May, this year Europe’s ascendant populist parties scored their biggest sucesses yet in elections of representatives to the EU Parliament, a result that shifted the power base in the EU away from the Federalist / Globalist consensus parties to parties strong on sovereignty and national cultural values, though many people who rely on left-leaning outlets like the BBC, CNN, or state controlled French and German TV channels for their information. Britain’s far – left newspaper The Guardian tried to spin the results as a critical victory in as far as the mainstream parties did not do as badly as many pundits feared they would.

Though the center-right coalition known as the EPP (European People’s Party)  and center-left coalition S&D (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats,)  lost their combined majority in the Parliament, they retained a plurality of votes, while populist parties like Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party and Italy’s League made strong gains. This blow to the establishment’s coalition has made selecting the replacements for Juncker, ECB President Mario Draghi, and other senior bloc-level positions (most of which are filled via backroom horse trading or pork barrel politics democratic process) much more difficult. Smaller nations have always sold their support, now with a realistic challenger to the consensus parties, they find they can demand higher prices.

As of today the new parliament has not yet been sworn in but Merkel, for so long a dominant figure in EU politics, has been exposed as a lame duck after her latest attempt at “un-retirement” was ridiculed in Germany. Her inability to gain support for the coronation of her coalition’s picks for top EU positions is seen as a weakness that can be exploited.

One EU official quoted by Bloomberg called the unexpected resistance to Merkel’s agenda- which came both from her coalition partners as well as ‘smaller countries’ who angered by their were exclusion from a deal cooked up mainly between Germany and France with officials from ther United Nations, the IMF and other supra national bureaucracies at the G20 meeting in Osaka – a “rebellion of rabbits.” Here’s a snippet:

If there was one thing Angela Merkel didn’t factor into her plan to make Socialist Frans Timmermans the European Union’s next chief executive, it was what one official in the room called the “rebellion of rabbits.”

As she flew back from the G-20 in Japan, the German chancellor and veteran of many an EU marathon summit was fairly confident that the 58-year-old Dutchman would be accepted by the rest of the leaders gathering in Brussels to decide who to put forward as the next head of the European Commission.

Sure, it was going to be a long night, but she’s faced down worse. As the sun rose, there was no deal and shortly after noon it was decided to reconvene on Tuesday at 11 a.m. after almost 19 hours of going around in circles. It was something almost without precedent.

What became clear was that Merkel had miscalculated the degree of opposition on two fronts: from her own center-right political family that felt betrayed she gave away the top prize. And also the smaller countries that often feel unseen and bared their teeth at the what felt like a stitch-up cooked up in Osaka.

As Monday morning’s deadline approached, Merkel was forced to meet one-on-one with national leaders in a bid to cobble together enough support for her lap – dog bureaucrats through bipartisan deals to get them accepted. And still, no deal materialized. Here’s how Bloomberg explained it.

For starters, the stage hadn’t been properly set. Deals and assurances weren’t put in place. Young powers smelled blood and growing intolerance for backroom deals – especially in an increasingly fragmented political landscape following May’s EU elections.

For Merkel, one year ago, this type of snub would have been unthinkable. But now that she has stepped down as party leader and set an end date for her historic chancellorship, the new blood in Europe is trying to make its voice heard. Guiseppe Conte, Italy’s Parime Minister, though nationalist firebrand Matteo Salvini, who had to accept a lesser official title is the de facto leader of the Italian government after the EU showed its comtempt for democracy by refusing to accept a Eurosceptic national leader, objected to the package of nominations presented on the grounds that it was put together with the help of people outside the EU political framework and without consultation with all EU members.

Merkel was isolated. Even usually reliable allies like Emmanuel Macron (who really fancies himself as the saviour of the European project, having reduced France from political chaoseto near failed – state political dysfunction in just two years refused to support her . As Bloomberg put it:

And French President Emmanuel Macron was not coming to her rescue – their relationship has been showing signs of strain. “In the long run we must draw consequences of such a failure,” he said at the end of day two. “Our credibility is deeply stained by these endless meetings that lead to nothing. We’re giving an image of Europe that is not serious.”

he PrimeT Minister of unconsidered Bulgaria summed up the frustration of the EPP’s smaller parties: “Nobody has the right to negotiate on our behalf, from EPP, whatever post they have.”

Another described Merkel’s plan to anoint Timmermans as “half baked”.

“Merkel is leader of the CDU, not the EPP,” Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov told reporters. “Well many other things came from Osaka as well. But nobody has the right to negotiate on our behalf, from EPP, whatever post they have.”

Such open defiance to Merkel from the leader of one of the EU’s economic basket cases would have been unthinkable even a year ago.

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Left Wing Hate Mob Protesting At G20 Turn Hamburg Into An Inferno.
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French Prime Minister says: “Europe Is Falling Apart”
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How Much Does The UK Actually Send To The EU

Big kerfuffle this week over Conservative Party leadership contender Boris Johnson facing a court hearing over his claim, made during the EU Referendim campaign, that Britain sends £350million a week to Brussels. Originally the Rabid Remainers tried to claim somebody in the Leave campaign (they weren’t quite sure if it was Boris, Nigel Farahe, Jacob Rees – Mogg, Michael Gove or somebody else and didn’t really care,) had said all of the money would go to the NHS. Nobody had actually said it of course but such is the solipsism of the globalist camp that if they want something to be true, they can easily convince themseles it is true.

The claim is in fact true but misleading. If the amount paid into the EU budget is taken, then it is close to £350million a week. Our net contribution (i.e. after the amount paid by the EU to fund various EU supported projects means the net amount we contribute to the EU is somewhat less. However that £350million is not the full story:

from The Bruges Group

The true cost to Britain being a part of the European Union is close to £661 million per week since 2010, a number hidden from the British taxpayers due to an intricate payments system and largely ignored by the mainstream media.

Our estimated figure encompasses £80billion lost to the Treasury after the European Court of Justice forced tax rebates to multinationals.

A key area of controversy is on the rebate, an annual, purported “reduction” in United Kingdom’s contribution to the EU budget that’s equal to about 66% of the difference between what the UK contributes to the EU budget and its receipts from the EU.

Even after the rebate, in membership fees alone, Britain shelled out £70.6 billion since 2010.

Data derived from a briefing paper on “The UK’s contribution to the EU Budget” indicates Britain contributed between £8-10 billion per year. The same report acknowledged “the UK made the second largest net contribution to the EU budget in absolute terms, and the third largest net contribution per head of population” in 2015.

If the EU exceeds its budget, as it did in the fiscal year 2014-2015, UK is responsible for footing the difference. We did that year in the amount of £1.7 billion, as reported by the Daily Mail.

The EU demanded the amount after recalculating the income of member states dating back almost 20 years, penalizing the British economy that was found to be larger than previously determined. The article detailed Britain “paid the amount due” in full with two instalments not subject to rebates.

Parliament has no control over these payments since Britain is part of the EU and civil servants are legally obliged to pay these costs. Britain is increasingly relied upon as a financial support structure for Eurozone countries facing serious financial difficulty or at risk of defaulting on their debt

oblications.

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EU’s Top Eurofederalist admits EU wants an empire
The leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe (ALDE)
told CNN that plans to reform the EU and devolve power from Brussels back to the nation-state proposed by the populist paries that have spring up in member states, and led by Matteo Salvin’s Lega (League) in Italy, Marine le Pen and her Rassemblement National in France and Hungary’s Victor Orban, leader of the Fidesz party would mean that the bloc “will die inside.”

Little Donny Tusk The Polish Has-Been Tells Britain How To Vote.


Donald Tusk, who is the President of the European Council and was the centre-right Europhile Prime Minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014 made the remarks in support of his former Deputy Prime Minister, Anglo-Pole Jan-Vincent Rostowski who is standing as a Change UK candidate in London for Thursday’s election.


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When I had to defriend a Facebook contact because she was arguing in favour of the EU, it was not simply because I support Brexit that I had become pissed of with her, it was the snobbish and condescending way she dismissed supporters of LEAVE and their case. People are entitled to their opinion on the European Union, but they should check the ‘facts’ they post in support of their arguments.

The Labour Case For Brexit by Kate Hoey M.P.
After my short intro is a savage indictment by Brexit supporting Labour MP Kate Hoey of the way the Labour Party has abandoned the working class and is now trying to betray the party’s proud heritage and its roots in the industrial areas by taking Britain into an undemocratic, corporate controlled, capitalist friendly, elite dominated globalist control freak project.

Dutch Referendum This Week Shows why We Should Leave The EU.
Few of you were aware probably that there is an EU referendum vote in The Netherlands this week. As usual with anything negative about the EU barely a word has been printed in the topic in mainstream media and the silence from our notionally unbiased national broadcaster The Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) has been deafening.

French, Belgians, Dutch, Italians Follow Britain in Euroskepticism
Europeans want us British to lead them out of Europe. Don’t be fooled by project fear, the European Union (aka the Euronazi Federal Superstate) is falling apart. There will not be chaos if we leave, there will be chaos if we stay.

Head Of European Institute: Brexit ‘Better’ For Everyone
Brexit would be the best result of Britain’s in / out referendum for both Britain and the EU i a Belgian professor who heads up the European Institute at the London School of Economics (LSE) has said.

Johnson’s article lines up his reasons why Britain must exit on June 23rd. It’s time to be brave
OK, I know a lot of you think Boris is most accurately described by a word many people find offensive, but he’s put together a very good argument here on why we must leave the EU. Published in part here under ‘fair use’ terms and conditions, in the public interest …