Food Fascists Demand Tobacco-Style Sin Taxes to Slash Meat Consumption

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Sky-high sin taxes on meat have been branded “inevitable” in Britain after a study asserted that the move could “save hundreds of thousands of lives” as well as helping stop climate change.

Researchers at Oxford University urged ministers to consider the move, claiming that hiking the cost of red meat by 14 per cent and processed meat by 79 per cent could prevent 5,920 deaths in Britain a year and save the NHS an annual sum of £750 million on healthcare costs.

Lead researcher Dr Marco Springmann, from the Nuffield Department of Population Health at Oxford University, said: “The consumption of red and processed meat exceeds recommended levels in most high and middle-income countries.

“This is having significant impacts not only on personal health, but also on healthcare systems, which are taxpayer-funded in many countries, and on the economy, which is losing its labour force due to ill health and care for family members who fall ill.

I hope that governments will consider introducing a health levy on red and processed meat as part of a range of measures to make healthy and sustainable decision-making easier for consumers.

“A health levy on red and processed meat would not limit choices, but send a powerful signal to consumers and take pressure off our healthcare systems.”

The Institute for Economic Affairs’ Chris Snowdon described the numbers in the study as “unfeasibly large”, stating that even if one takes the “outlandish” health claims to be true, the authors appear to have made “a classic mistake” of so-called public health research when calculating potential healthcare savings.

It also claims that processed and red meat kill 2.4 million people a year. This is nonsense, the figures, obviously plucked out of thin air, are seventeen times higher than the previous estimate (from last September).

Pointing out that “people who live to a ripe old age tend to cost a lot of money”, he explained in the Spectator that studies of this kind often make the assumption that “someone who avoids a diet-related disease will avoid every other disease and never trouble the health service again”. In fact it is impossible to prove an 80 year old meat eather with bowel cancer developed the disease as a result of eating meat. by the same criterium it is also impossible to prove that a healthy 90 year old vegetarian would not have stayed healthy so long had they eaten a steak or a chop occasionally.

“An unholy alliance of ‘public health’ campaigners, environmentalists and vegetarians will be working night and day to make this happen. Taxing food is the next battleground for the nanny state,” the Institute of Economic Affairs’ (IEA) director of lifestyle economics told The Sun newspaper.

 

Police Forces Taking Days to Respond to 999 Calls … While Hate Crime Declared a Priority

the daily stirrer
Source: creepingshariafiles.com

Following the declaration earlier this year by the Terrorist Party Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, announced that in future London’s Metropolitan Police Force would not investigate minor crime but would in future be proritizing the prosecution of those deemed to have committed ‘hate crimes’, other police forces in Britain are following suit and declaring that tackling so-called hate crime a “priority”. The police watchdog has released a report revealing officers are taking days to respond to emergency calls.

Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (HMICFRS) reported that “the system is under severe strain and in some forces the cracks are showing” in its annual review of policing in England and Wales, which warned there were “considerable delays” in responding to 999 calls for assistance in some forces.

Vulnerable people are being put “at risk” by the lack of a prompt response from some forces, according to the report, which disclosed that between 20 per cent and 50 per cent of reports requiring police to send a unit within 24 hours missed the target in one region. Strangely enough, it does not mention that the cops are keen as mustard when a Muslim complains that some bloke, by eating a bacon sandwich in the street, has commited a hate crime against Islam.

Though HMICFRS emphasised most forces were managing to keep the public safe at a time when officers are under “significant stress” from rising crime and reduced budgets, the watchdog noted that “too often”, victims were not getting a prompt response. Again the report failed to mention that most of the increses in violent crime are occurring in areas with a high proportion of recent immigrants in the population.

Crime figures released in February this year reveal that fatal stabbings in England and Wales are at the highest level since 2010-2011, while rapes at knifepoint rose by 23 per cent in the past year. London in particular, where you will recall, mayor Sadiq Khan has ordered the police to prioritise ‘hate crime’ is experiencing a huge surge in violent crime, particularly knife crome and acid attacks, often on randomly selected members of the public. But so long as the victims don’t have dark skin that little racist shit Khan does not seem to care.

Nationwide data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) recorded 413 rapes involving a knife in the year to March, up from 334 the previous year, while in 2010-2011 the number stood at 258.

The statistics show fatal knife attacks also rose last year and revealed that while the number of female victims was the lowest in a decade, at 51, the number of males murdered in deadly knife attacks was the highest since 2009, standing at 164.

“Male victims aged 16 to 24 years and 35 to 44 years have seen the biggest increases over the last year, with both groups having 10 more homicides than in the year ending March 2016,” the ONS reported.

Overall, 215 people died in fatal attacks using a knife or other sharp instrument last year, which marked the highest number since the year to 2011, in which 236 people were killed.

Official data released in January showed the surging rate of violent and sexual crime in the UK had been accelerating faster than previously thought, with violent crime overall rising 20 per cent. The Lancashire Evening Post reported the latest ONS figures show “huge rises in robbery, sex and violent crime” in the country, where a number of regions recorded “alarmingly high increases” in offences over the last 12 months.

Social Science Degrees Make Great Leaders? More Junk Science.
We’ve had junk science on climate change, genetically modified seeds, many types of medicines and social engineering. The junkiest of junk science however is always commissioned by public service organisations and is aimed at convincing the public that our public servants are doing a good job. Fortunately the public are not as gullible as our leaders suppose.

Swedish PM Admits Immigration, Crime ‘Challenges’ — Denies ‘No Go Zones’
Sweden’s Prime Minister has admitted a link between gang violence and mass migration in a press conference alongside U.S. President Donald J. Trump in the White House today, but says that his government is solving the situation. Speaking on the subject of crime and immigration, Stefan Loefven, who has previously criticised President Trump’s warnings over …

Adolescent Girl Raped By 60 Men In Asian Grooming Gang
A trial jury atThe Old Bailey, London, heard yesterday the harrowing ddetails of how two schoolgirls were groomed and raped by an paedophile gang based in Aylesbury, Bucks, while aged just 12 and 13. Eleven gang members, accused of carrying out the crimes between 2006 and 2012 face 49 criminal charges between them including statutory rape, child prostitution and creating child pornography, The Daily Mirror reports.

Poldark female star: Obsession with topless Aidan Turner is ‘sexist and undermines the show’
The latest outburst has come in response to a few tabloid stories of actor Aidan Turner’s ‘topless’ appearances in the BBC television series Poldark. The screeching sisters can’t really complain about male chauvinism as it is women who are lusting for Ross Poldark. So the ladies (?) are upset because they can’t go topless too.

London’s Met Police Won’t Investigate Minor Crime, Only ‘Hate Crime’
It’s official then, British heterosexuals are second class citizens, only members of minorities matter. A tad extreme you might well think, but how else are we to interpret the news that London’s Metropolitan Police force will in future investigate crimes if officers are required to watch CCTV for more than 20 minutes or there is …

More Swedish PC Madness. Art treasures declared pornographic and offensive to women and Muslims
Crazy California has for many years held the title of global capital of politically correct isanity, but recently Sweden, always a contender, has shown signs of taking the title. The latest example of PC fuckwittery from Sweden’s politically correct in their efforts to sacrifice western civilisation to feminist self righteousness and Muslim extremism left suggests they might be ready to assume the title, craziest place on earth.

Nineteen Eighty-Four: Sweden’s Ministry of Truth to ‘Gender-Adjust’ History Books

Multi-Cultural England: Are You Feeling The Progressive Diversity.
As racial and sectarian tension increase on the streets of britain while politicians gear up for the election campaign, we take a look at the state of Britain today, Imigrant child abuse gangs, Clerics of alient faiths dictating moral strictures, and everywhere we look, foreigners being given provieged status. Is it any wonder the voters are angry?

German Feminist Says Authorities Covered Up Muslim Sex Crime For Twenty Years
Police and Authorities Covered Up Problem For 20 Years say prominent German womens’ Rights Campaigner. As the outcry about sex attacks on European women by recently arrived Muslim migrants refuses to die down, a leading German feminist, Alice Schwarzer, has said the politically correct “bubble has burst” and Germans should speak out against Islamic extremism and …

“>Mothers banned from breastfeeding at breastfeeding conference
‘Mothers invited to a Scottish Government-backed breastfeeding conference were left angry and bemused after being told that they would not be allowed to breastfeed their babies.

Labour’s Cockfish Reveals How Mainfesto Will Piss You Off.
All three main parties in the UK General Election are campaigning from a Politically Correct Consensus (i.e. Control Freak) platform. But whenm it comes to politically correct control freakery, Labour will always outdo the others. The main early thut of their campaign is a promise to criminalise sugary snacks and breakfast cereals, fatty foods and some fizzy drinks. And they’re serious, they have handed the job of selling this idiocy to The Cockfish of British politics.

Computer Cops Will Arrest You Before you Commit A Crime
Innocent until proved guilty has always been a basic principle of British and before the Union, English and Scottish justice. Since late in the ninth century when King Alfred signed into law the Liber Judicialis, the nearest thing England and Great britain has ever had to a written constitution or, until recently ever needed, the …

Oxford University Bans All Things Pig Related In Support Of Free Speech
When does being reasonable and open minded become cowardice? When academics who pride themselves on intellectual detachment cave in to threats from extremists and try to pass off their pitiful weakness by pretending they are showing sensitivity to the feelings of minorities. Don’t send you little geniuses to Oxfor, they may and up with a PhD in spinlessness.

Liberal Says We Shouldn’t Prosecute Sexual Predators… if They are Black.
There are plenty of examples of the depths of stupidity to which ‘liberals’ or supporters of ‘the progressive left’ will stooop in order to curry favout from members of the darker skinned races, but few are as staggeringly idiot as this one.

It’s Too Late! The Thought Police Are At The Door. Bad Taste Is Now A Crime
Thought crime is here to stay, and not just thought crime, but thoughtlessness crime, bad taste crime and wrong place at the wrong time crime. The Thought Police are on the march and soon they will control your minds. Their chief weapons are fear and surp … no, we will not do that. Thought Criminal …

The Feminist Witch Hunt That aims To Destroy Ched Evans

British Democracy In Terminal Decline – Voting Is Redundant And Civil Liberties Are So Last Year
When did democracy go out of fashion. I don’t remember voting on whether we wanted to give up our civil liberties or be ruled by a dictatorship of unelected bureaucrats from Brussels, but that is where we are heading, along with the other free nations of Europe. And the USA, so-called land of the free is further along the road to fascism than Europe.


South Yorkshire Police Commissioner Shaun Wright Finally Resigns Over Rotherham Child Abuse Scandal

The man who bears most responsibility for failure to investigate the Rotherham child abuse scandal has finally resigned after three weeks of excuses and evasions. Police Commissioner Wright has been under pressure ever since a report by Prof Alexis Jay (see below) revealed a huge level of child abuse in the South Yourkshire town of Rotherham. The organised sex crime rings had been operating for …

The Great Recovery Illusion

On the BBC television political discussion show last night, in which a panel drawn from the political, media and academic communities field questions from an audience drawn from the general public, a panellist who I assume was a conservative was squawking about how well the UK economy was doing, citing that unemployment had fallen again in recent months and was now down to levels last seen before the dotcom crash in 2000.

An audience member was quickly on his feet to point out, to applause from the whole audience that the figure was misleading as people in zero hours contracts and part time jobs are classed as ‘in work’ to get them off the statistics. The young man could also have reminded the programmes studio and television audience that people who are out of work for two years are reclassified as ‘not economically active’ and removed from the unemployment register. Even if these people would love to work and are eager to grab any reasonably well paid job available, they are not counted as unemployed.

Then there are the lost legions of the partially disabled, the thousands encouraged to sign up for toytown degree courses at tenth rate colleges and universities. and don’t get me started on the non jobs in the public sector, the equalities offices, gender awareness councillors and so on.

This manipulation of statistics to create a false impression of economic – if not health then only ‘feeling-a-bit-off-colourism’ is not only going on in Britain and among our EU colleagues. With every months employment statistics from Washington, Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge return to one of his favourite themes, the the recovery in the US waiter and bartender economy.
Every month, if we look back, we see Washington claiming the U S economy has created stupendous numbers of ‘new jobs’ (I’m not sure but I have the impression a lot of these are just a case of hiring a replacement for someone who retired, but changing the job title slightly.

Overall however, due to population growth via immigration, in Europe and North America the proportion of the whole population actually in work is regularly hitting new lows. We live in an era of universal deception.

RELATED POSTS:
The Jobless Economy

Politicians, economists and others with an interest in talking up the economy to get us all spending and taking on debt and mortgage loans again may rave about recovery. With our industrial base so depleted where will the jobs come from that we need to lead a recovery?” They may call it fiscal prudence, we call it loonytoons economics…

No Jobs For The Masses In The New Economy Despite University Education
No matter how leaders like David Cameron and Barack Obama try to talk up their economies or assure voters the jobs market is improving, growth returning and unemployment will soon start falling, the truth is change does not equal progress and forcing the pace of social change has only masked the true depth of economic and social problems. One of these is unemployment and particularly joblessness among the young. Even a universdity education does not provide a guaranteed career path.

The Real Story Behind Obama’s Job Creation
Last week’s announcement by the U.S. labour department that the American economy had created 216,000 jobs in March was seized on as cause for celebrations by sychophantic Obamessiah cultists desperate for something to praise “The greatest human being who ever lived” for. Obama cult inhouse newssheets The New York Times, the Washington Post reported that …

The 99ers: Death Of The American Dream.

The 99ers are a new social class created by the economic recession in the USA. This new demographic, not one the advertizing industry will be interested in are jobless people whose unemployment benefit (job sekers in UK parlance) benefit has run out and thus who have dropped off the unemployment statistics. But even for people who are not 99ers times are hard scross the pond …

British Workers Compete With Immigrants For Jobs

The main controversy in today’s news stories is the response of Work amd Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith to the citicisms made by the Archbishop of Canterbury about the government’s handling of the long term unemployment problem.

More Graduates, Less Graduate Jobs by Xavier Connolly

All the while Labour were in power they kept muttering about the knowledge economy as if simply having attained a University degree was a marketable asset. In reality were were spending fortunes on educating people to be call centre clerks, shelf fillers and burger flippers. Now the coalition must find a way to deal with the problem of having too many graducates in areas that offer no jobs.

Jobless Benefit Claimants rise in October
Once again, in a welter of obfuscatory statistics we learn that while the overall number of jobless people has fallen the number claiming jobseekers allowance as risen. Though presented as good news by the government this can only mean more people have gone past the time limit for claiming jobseekers allowance and been transferred to income support, claimants of which are not included on the figures.

Graduate Unemployment Reaches A New High News that there are 70 applicants for each graduate vacancy as this years University output start the soul destroying business of seeking jobs cannot have cheered anybody. But what are te reasons for this disastrous state of affairs. Could it be anything to do with governments pushing University for all to mask the true extent of our declime as an industrial nation?

No Real Jobs In The New Economy

Gordon Brown’s Labour government and the failing Obama administration in the USA, feeling power slipping through their fingers, are trying to lull people into a false sense of security with claims the ‘green’ and the ‘digital’ economies will restore prosperity. This as a blatant lie, nobody needs a PhD in economics or Social Science to understand that the “new economy” of green businesses and digital commerce will destroy not create real jobs…

Minimum Wage Folly A Return To Speenhamland?

The minimum wage is meant to alleviate poverty and resolve problems with unemployment but as Ian R. Thorpe shows, as with all the cure all, politically correct social engineering wheezes dreamed up by the “progressive left” every time a minimum wage scheme is implemented it achieves the opposite of what is intended…

The Real Unemployment Figure

New unemployment figures released yesterday show unemployment fell by 0.1% in the three months December to FebruarY. Contained in the figures was a statistic that undermines government talk of an economic upturn. This is the number of people in work. Headline unemployment has fallen the number of people in work has also fallen. What’s going on?

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The lies and deceit of official unemployment statistics

Economy Booming, Unemployment Dropping So Why Are So Many People Out Of Work?

by Phil T Looker, The Daily Stirrer

Unemployment is in freefall the latest government figures tell us. So why aren’t we feeling it?

More people are working, but work doesn’t pay a living wage. Employment is up, but tax revenue is down. The economy is humming again, yet Britain is still in debt. What exactly is going on?

The latest statistics, published today show unemployment rates have fallen to their lowest level in five years. The Coalition has presided over an incredible boom in employment, with Britain gaining jobs at the fastest rate of any country in Europe. This week David Cameron even resurrected the old dream of “full employment”; our own leader column calls it a “jobs miracle”.

So why isn’t it doing us any good?

Lefties will screech about the need to raise the minimum wage, but the minimum wage has never worked and never will. Employers imply cut hours.

Even with more people in work than ever before tax revenues aren’t as high as were predicted. Why? The usual suspects are involved, part time working, zero hours contracts, and the statistical trick of only counting those claiming job seekers allowance as unemployed and classifying the long term unemployed (jobseekers allowance runs out after two years,) as not economically active. Count the real unemployed rather than the ‘scientifically’ unemployed and the figure has dropped little since its peak in 2009. As it happens, two analysts at Citigroup – Michael Saunders and Ann O’Kelly – have been considering exactly this question.

They found that the problem is not corporation tax – higher profits mean revenues have grown at almost double the rate predicted. Nor is it VAT, which has grown by exactly as much as expected. Stamp duty has gone up by 34 per cent. Neither high-rolling executives nor ordinary shoppers have slowed down their contributions. You can read the full analysis with charts in this Daily Telegraph article.

It is an excellent analysis and confirms all of the suspicions cited by business managers and accountants. It will be useful however, for the benefit of those who are not accountants, to expand on the bare statistics in order to highlight where the under-employed, and those who claim the lion’s share of working tax credits, are coming from. See this report created by a statistician with the help of a Freedom Of Information request. Yes, its another indictment of uncontrolled immigration and the eagerness of main pary politicians to smooth the path of those who arrive in our country illegally, to full residency rights.

The problem with the Government / Office of National Statistics methodology is the manner in which the UK assigns ‘nationality’ to anyone who wasn’t born in this country, and excludes naturalised British citizens (i.e. it doesn’t include non-UK born children who were naturalised).

From Table 2 in Saunders and Kelly’s analysis it is notable that of lower income tax credits families with children – i.e. whose awards include both Working Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit – over a quarter (27.13%) are migrant families.

From Table 3 this group of lower income families with children forms almost half (48.25%) of all migrant families claiming tax credits. Lower income families with children form a smaller proportion of non migrant families claiming tax credits (39.14%).

From Table 3 a slightly lower proportion of migrant families are out of work families with children (26.5%) than non migrant families (31.4%). However, from Table 2 migrant families comprise nearly a fifth of tax credits families who are out of work couples with children (19.49%) but only half that proportion of out of work single parents (10.59%).

The key issue however is that despite the increase in employment numbers there has not been a corresponding increase in the income tax take.

Clearly there has been an increase in low paid low skilled jobs. The influx of labour from eastern Europe and the subcontinent combined with Gordon Browns working tax credits has meant that the elasticity of labour supply has depressed wage growth and it may be simply that the treasury models have incorrectly forecast, in their models, this effect.
Secondly, there has been a significant increase in self employment, many of these self employment jobs have been created by East Europeans typically your Polish/ Romanian builders and as such the tax take from such employment is generally much lower than PAYE as a result of cash transactions etc.

Additionally, at least from my experience, much of the self employment increase has also been driven from higher Salary earners particularly in the media and IT sectors (so fed up with high levels of Tax and what they see as Government waste) that they opt out of PAYE employment and take on contract work under IR 35 where they can reduce their Tax charge by as much as 30% to 40% as well as their NI charges.

Thirdly, the very low even negative yields on fixed income investments that have resulted from low interest rates must have a significant impact on the tax take.

Statisticians delude themselves that those not inducted into the mysteries of the dark arts are easily fooled by graphs and charts, in truth it is statisticians who are easily deceived by their own deceptions. People who live in the real world do not look at and graphs, they look at the bottom line of their payslip and think about how they will stretch it to pay the bills and put food on the table

The do – gooders can screech all they like and demand that the minimum wage be raised to £10 per hour or even higher. If like a young woman I know, somebody is bullied by public servants into taking a minimum wage ‘job’ that only provided seven and a half hours a week work, in order to get her off the unemployed register, it still isn’t going to giver her family a living wage.

RELATED POSTS:

The Great Recovery Illusion
An audience member was quickly on his feet to point out that the figure was misleading as people in zero hours contracts and part time jobs are classed as ‘in work’ to get them off the statistics. The young man could also have reminded the programmes studio and television audience that people who are out of work for two years are reclassified as ‘not economically active’ and removed from the unemployment register. Even if these people would love to work and …

Unemployment falling? The Great Statistical Con Trick
President Barack Hussein Obama in his “State Of The Union” speech earlier this week was the president’s claimed that his administration had turned the economy around and was creating millions of ‘new jobs’ every year. The US Labor Department claims the economy created 292,000 jobs in December alone … In spite of the US economy having created almost 6 million jobs over the last two years according to official figures, more Americans than ever (93 million according to estimates) are out of work.

New UK ‘Living Wage’ Rules Making Businesses Reluctant To Hire
Concerns about a new, higher UK minimum wage (Chancellor George Osborne’s ‘living wage’ are making UK businesses reluctant to hire new staff. Uncertainty about the ‘living wage’ rules is contributing to a significant slowdown in hiring via recruitment firms, according to recruitment industry sources >>>

Elsewhere: [Boggart Blog]…[Little Nicky Machiavelli]… [ Ian’s Authorsden Pages ]… [Scribd]…[Wikinut] … [ Boggart Abroad] … [ Grenteeth Bites ] … Ian Thorpe at Flickr ] … [ Tumblr ] … [Ian at Minds ] … [ The Original Boggart Blog] … [ Authorsden blog ]

Why Are We Celebrating Angelina’s Tits (Or Lack Of Them)

The headline read:

Angelina Jolie inspires women to save themselves the agony of breast cancer by having preventive double mastectomies

There were any number of similar headlines in mainstream media this week, all full of praise for A(ish) List Celebrity, A-list barm pot and alleged actress Angelina Jolie for being brave enough to have her tits off because according to “experts” she had an 87 per cent chance of developing breast cancer. Angelina Jolie was not brave, her decision was either cowardly or calculating. It would be uncharitable to suggest the Jolie jugs were sagging unattractively as she nears forty and her ‘people’ came up with a great way of having them lifted and milking maximum publicity out of it, so we will not mention that possibility.

But why are we celebrating self mutilation. If some teenager who’d had a shitty childhood was cutting him or herself would we celebrate that?

Ah no, but Angie had an eighty seven per cent chance of developing breast cancer. Eighty Seven per cent of what, you wonder. We did at the Boggart Blog editorial meeting. Only yesterday I was trying to explain to a science head Daily Telegraph blogger why only nine per cent of people trust statistics. It went like this:

Tom Chivers:

Fifty-eight per cent of Britons between 16 and 75 believe that if you flip a coin twice, the probability of getting two heads is 50 per cent. Fifty-four per cent of Britons are “fairly confident” in their ability to use data and numbers.

If the Ipsos-Mori poll from which this is taken was accurate, it means that at least 12 per cent of Britons think they’re pretty good with numbers but can’t work out 0.5 times 0.5.

I’m not especially brilliant with numbers, data and statistics, in the scale of things, I should admit. But they are important. They’re the only tool we have for assessing the world dispassionately, for stripping it as far as we can of the colour of our own experience. Which is why the numbers given above are not, actually, the most depressing in the poll.

The most depressing numbers are the following. One thousand and thirty-four British adults between 16 and 75 were asked to choose between the following statements:

Statistics are more important than my own experiences or those of my family and friends in helping me keep track of how the government is doing

My own experiences or those of my family and friends are more important than statistics in helping me keep track of how the government is doing.

Forty-six per cent chose the latter. Just nine per cent chose the former.

But how can anyone, using their own experience and those of the, say, 150 probably fairly similar people they regularly come into contact with, possibly gain any sort of insight into the effects government reforms of the NHS, or benefit cuts, or whatever, are having across a nation of tens of millions of people? (read all this post)

My reply:

Tom, you are probably not as deficient in maths and statistics as you think. If you could be more objective about anything that wears a “science” label I reckon you would do fine.

The trick is to be able to discriminate between what is a statistic and what is an interpretation.

Manchester United won 30 out of 37 matches played this so far season.

Chelsea won 22 out of 37 matches played so far.

These are statistics and are easily verifiable.

Now if we say (using mental arithmetic) Manchester United won 80% of games played this season while Chelsea won 60% we’re still OK but will alienate many people because percentages are used in statistics to deceive and deflect.

If however we come over all Brian Cox and say Manchester United win rate 80%, Chelsea win rate 60% therefore Manchester United are 20% (or 33% depending on how you calculate) better than Chelsea, that’s statistical bollocks and people are a lot more adept at seeing through it than media type, politicians and academics are willing to accept.

You see, statistics are not always numbers, more often they are interpretations of numbers. And when government or big business is involved they are interpretations that are deliberately skewed towards the outcome the sponsoring organisation wants.

Angelina Jolie did not have an eighty seven per cent chance of developing breast cancer, according to figures from the U S National Cancer Institute fact sheet she had a 12.4% chance of developing cancer. Or maybe an eighty seven per cent of twelve point four percent. Like candidates in a mathematics examination, scientists and big science shills should always be required to show their workings.

from U S National Cancer Institute
What is the average American woman’s risk of developing breast cancer during her lifetime?

Based on current incidence rates, 12.4 percent of women born in the United States today will develop breast cancer at some time during their lives (1). This estimate, from the most recent SEER Cancer Statistics Review (a report published annually by the National Cancer Institute’s [NCI] Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results [SEER] Program), is based on breast cancer statistics for the years 2007 through 2009.

This estimate means that, if the current incidence rate stays the same, a woman born today has about a 1 in 8 chance of being diagnosed with breast cancer at some time during her life. On the other hand, the chance that she will never have breast cancer is 87.6 percent, or about 7 in 8.

In the 1970s, the lifetime risk of being diagnosed with breast cancer in the United States was just under 10 percent (or about 1 in 10).

The last five annual SEER reports show the following estimates of lifetime risk of breast cancer, all very close to a lifetime risk of 1 in 8:

Someone close to me has recently undergone treatment for breast cancer. In her case neither her mother or her aunts or either grandmother ever had any sign of breast cancer, in spite of them all living beyond the average lifespan for their generation. Statistics mean nothing, reality is what counts.

So Angelina Jolie was caluclating that by having her tits off she had a one hundred per cent chance of grabbing front page headlines in ninety five per cent (I made that up) of the worlds print and broadcast media of she was so terrified of having an eighty seven and a half per cent chance of not developing breast cancer.

Or as many American experts are agreeing with a more sceptical view of the statistics that informed Angelina’s assault on her breast tissue that in fact her chanches of developing breast cancer based on the fact that she has two genes active that have been idientified in studies funded by the reconstructive surgery industry, she had a far smaller probability than my crude statistical calculations show. Did Angelina Jolie Make A Mistake By Acting On The breast Cancer Gene Theory

Here’s a teaser:
The ‘prophylactic’ removal of women’s breasts due to BRCA1/BRCA2 status has become a disturbingly popular trend, and increasingly it is being celebrated in the mainstream media and medical establishments as a reasonable choice. But does the scientific evidence itself refute this approach?

Angelina Jolie’s recent announcement in a New York Times op-ed that she had a ‘prophylactic’ double mastectomy due to her BRCA1/BRCA2 status has disturbing implications, some of which we covered late last year in connection with Allyn Rose, the 24-year old Miss America contestant who announced she would be undergoing a double mastectomy to “prevent” breast cancer.

Whatever, you can bet if there is a sudden rush to private clinics by rich, egotistical silly tarts wanting their tits off “like Angelina”, Ms. Jolie will be well, if indirectly rewarded for her sacrifice. In fact the publicity she has had already must be worth enough to pay for ten double mastectomies.

The irony is our forebears who did not have technology, modern medical techniques, designer drugs and all the rest and just had to catch what life threw at them and run with it seemed to suffer far less stress and anxiety than we do. I can’t help feeling that the plague of progress in the 20th century has robbed us of more than Angelina’s tits.

As for Tom Chivers, I hope his blind faith in statistics does not induce him to go and have his tits off.

RELATED POSTS:

St Angelina, save us from ourselves! – Brendan O’Neill, Spiked
The beatification of Angelina Jolie for writing about her mastectomy confirms that celebrity culture has reached new and hysterical heights

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Can Statistics Really Make You Live Longer

Statisticians who predicted a win for Barack Obama in the US Presidential election are now casting themselves as prophets, soothsayers and Sybilline Oracles and making outrageous claims that statistics can affect how long we live. Is this justified? W-e-e-e-e-e-l-l-l-l-l-l, they were rightish. All the science heads managed to do in fact was call the winner of a two horse race correctly, a trick which anybody has a 50% chance of pulling off.

Few regular gamblers would bet to win in as two horse race (or a football, cricket, boxing match). The bookies would offer much more attractive odds on the winning margin, how many lengths a horse would win by, how many goals a soccer team would score, how many runs or wickets a cricket team would secure victory by, in which round a boxer would prevail.

On that basis most of the American statisticians were within their margin of error (which is set at plus or minus 4 %. Now as voter shifts tend to be small in American elections being “within the acceptable margin of error” means being totally wrong.

The statistics boys are undeterred and are even claiming Obama’s victory was down to the science of a pollster named Nate Silver. Nothing to do with the people who turned out to vote Democrat then. Oh no, it was Silver’s statistics wot won it. In fact Silver, whose statistical conjuring tricks were accompanied by commentary so biased he clearly thought it was an affront to democracy that Obama was not being returned unopposed, predicted a landslide for the Democrat. Obama squeaked home by less than two per cent of the votes cast.

But as you all should know, there are three kinds of lies, lies, damned lies and statistics and egged on by the election victory for the science of manipulating data the science heads are now claiming statistics can make you live longer.

Andrew Gache, longevity consultant at actuaries firm Club Vita, says that retiring at age 70 rather than 60 adds around 13 months to men’s life expectancy – and 12 months to women’s longevity – even after allowing for differences in individuals’ health, wealth and lifestyle.

That’s really great news for the rising numbers of people arriving at what used to be retirement age with grossly inadequate savings to fund a life of leisure or any kind of life. Poor old sods find they struggled scrimped and saved to build a retirement fund and now find it is worth five pounds a year while the silly buggers who drank, smoked, gambled and took out loans to go on foreign holidays are doing very nicely thank you on taxpayer funded pension credits. Still, abolition of the default retirement age of 65 last month means more people who want to work until they are 90, lose their minds or can no longer hold themselves erect will now be able to do so.

If the thought of an extra decade at work is just too much, then Another aspect of research shows that much shorter periods of work can also improve life expectancy. For example, men who retire at 65 rather than 60 live an average of 7.5 months longer, while women who delay retirement by the same period live an extra 6.5 months.

As always with statistics though the key to uncovering the fraud lies in what is being counted. Many occupations make working into advanced old age impractical – there aren’t many septuagenarian bricklayers – and individual illness will force those whose occupations are physically demanding or environmentally unhealthy will account for many early deaths.

Now a little balance has been brought into the equation some readers who are sceptical about pseudo sciences like statistics may prefer to ignore the science and side with former American President Ronald Reagan who observed: “They say hard work never killed anyone but I figure, why take the chance?”

There’s more than a grain of truth in that joke, as demonstrated by Office for National Statistics data which shows that manual workers tend to die much younger than administrative staff. Dave Grimshaw of actuaries Barnett Waddingham pointed out: “Lawyers, accountants and so on are a group in the data called ‘higher managerial and professional’. They would have life expectancy of nearly 19 years for males at age 65. At the other end of the scale, you would have occupations such as labourers and cleaners, where life expectancy at 65 is nearer 15 years.”

While medical advances, improved diet and cleaner working environments mean more people across Britain are living longer, the gap between lifespans for different groups of the population is growing, according to analysis by the Longevity Science Advisory Panel.

Here and now, the Club Vita research prompts the common sense question: why should working longer help us live longer? Bear in mind that, as mentioned above, the actuaries have allowed for the fact that people forced to retire early by ill-health are likely to die sooner, as well as the mathematical fact that some who retire at 65 will die before reaching 70.

In the end it is the workshy and those who can think of more entertaining ways to spend their final years will argue that advice to work longer and live longer brings to mind a joke told by hard Drinking, chain smoking Irish comedian Dave Allen who died aged 68 but enjoyed every minute of it. A seeker asked a guru for the secret of eternal life and was advised to give up smoking, drinking, chocolate and sex.

“But will that really make me live forever?” asked the questor after truth. “No,” replied the guru, “but every day will feel that way.”

RELATED POSTS:

Lies, Damned Lies and ummm, those other things
One of the most unfortunate aspects of modern scientific work, apart from the deification of science by people who don’t really understand what it is, is the tendency to conflate science with mathematics … Worse than that, they conflate statistical data with facts and thus trick themselves into believing mathematical models generated by computers are more reliable indicators than empirical evidence.

Age Apartheid
Age, Aluminium and Alzheimers
Age and mouse science
The Age Timebomb

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Climate Science Statistical Method Explained.

Since we learned last December that the Meteorlogical Office were sacked by the government as provider of long range weather forcasts Boggart Blog has been trying to secure an interview with a Met Office manager to find out why their predictions are always the opposite of what really happens and why they are so crap at interpreting statistics.

So far nobody has been prepared to talk to Boggart Blog but we did get this written statement from a source within the Met Office.

“Yoiu have to understand the climate is driven by numerous highly complax, constantly variable and interrelated factors. Trying to analyse the data from all of these s a hugely complicated and difficult task.

In answer to your question, our team of highly trained statisticians which includes myself, are the best available. Considering 43% of them are insane and the other 59% just can’t be arsed, we do rather well I feel.