Vaccines saved 100,000 lives? Er, no, Minister

By Harry Dougherty in TCW Defending Freedom, September 7, 2021

September 7, 2021

PUBLIC Health England and Cambridge University claim that coronavirus vaccines have prevented more than 100,000 deaths. Can this be true? In a recent post on the British government’s website, Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisation at PHE, states: ‘It is remarkable that the vaccine programme may now have prevented over 100,000 deaths in England alone.’ 

Note the use of the inconclusive word ‘may’ which could just as easily mean ‘may not’. 

Imagine if a child went missing and the police chief leading the search told a press conference: It is remarkable that due to our incredible investigation team, the missing child may be found alive and well.’ 

But officially approved scientists oftenget away with espousing similar absurdities unchallenged.

The same government bulletin quotes Health Secretary Sajid Javid: ‘Today’s new data showing that vaccines have saved more than 100,000 lives in England is phenomenal and testament to the UK’s vaccination programme.’

No, Minister, it doesn’t.

‘The vaccines have saved lives’ and ‘the vaccines may have saved lives’ do not mean the same thing and should not be used interchangeably. An estimate is not a result. How can we be expected to trust these people with what goes inside our bodies when they are so casual about the truth? And what is their basis for suggesting that the vaccines ‘may’ have saved 100,000 lives anyway? 

‘The results were produced using the real-time pandemic surveillance model from PHE and Cambridge University’s MRC Biostatistics Unit, looking at the direct and indirect impact of the COVID-19 vaccination programme on infections and mortality.’

Ah, modelling.

‘The total was calculated by comparing the estimated impact of vaccination on infection and mortality against a worst-case scenario where no vaccines and no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place to reduce infections and mortality.’

Failing to take into account Covid’s obvious seasonality, the mystic modellers have conjured a worst-case scenario out of thin air. Figure 5 on Public Health England’s Covid-19 vaccine surveillance report for Week 34 ludicrously assumes that without the vaccines, coronavirus-linked mortality would have surpassed the January peak of 1,285 Covid deaths (seven-day rolling average) in the summer.

The biggest flaw in this modelling is the assumption that lockdowns and other pandemic mitigation measures, such as those in summer 2020, were effective at preventing what would otherwise have been a catastrophe. ‘The no-vaccination scenario assumes that no other interventions are implemented to reduce incidence and mortality. Therefore, the findings presented here should be interpreted as the impact of the vaccination programme on infection and mortality assuming no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented. … Continue reading >>>

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