Italeave or Quitaly? The EU Is Falling Apart

eurail-italy-overview-1

Italy: Too beautiful to be part of EU bureaucratic dictatorship (picture source)

Since the shock of Britain voting for ‘Brexit’ just over a year ago this blog has been speculating on which EU nation to quit the former free trade association that is being driven by Germany and the globalist elites closer and closer to becoming a single political enity, a Federal superstate (called Germany?)

Our money has always been on Italy although we hedged our bet with a wager on Hungary. And it’s starting to look as if we were correct.

Under the headline Is Italy heading for debt restructuring or euro exit? Financial newsletter Eurointelligence reports that a possible programme for Italy’s leaving the Union is already being discussed in the Italian parliament by the likely partners in a ruling coalition following the next election.

from Eurointelligence (not publicly available)

We are reporting from an important conference in Rome yesterday that has caught the Italian news headlines this morning – on the future of Italian public debt. It was organized by the Five Star Movement, held in the Italian chamber of deputies, and openly discussed issues such default mechanism inside the eurozone, sovereign debt restructuring mechanisms, parallel payment systems, and of course euro exit.

What is important about this debate is that it is now taking place in public – you can’t be more public than inside the parliament. Italians, not only the Five Star Movement, are openly talking about these issues.

One of us was on the podium, where we reiterated our criticism of the Five Star Movement’s previous-held cavalier notion of a euro referendum. The essential point we were trying to make in the debate, well reflected in this morning’s coverage by the main newspapers, is that euro exit is not a decision to be taken lightly. The announcement of a referendum would produce a financial crisis and might turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Euro exit belongs to the category of things that, citing Shakespeare’s Macbeth, “if it were done when ‘tis done, then ‘twere well It were done quickly“.

What struck us about this event was the sheer political leverage. Luigi di Maio, the presumptive Five Star candidate for the job of prime minister, seemed to distance himself from supporting euro exit. He sat through the entire 12-hour marathon of discussions. Beppe Grillo and Davide Casaleggio made short appearances. It was very clear that the Five Star Movement is now aggressively tackling the topic of Italy’s future in the eurozone, which is likely to become a major election issue. It also raises questions, as some Italian commentators did this morning, about possible coalition choices for the party if it adopts a more nuanced position on the euro.

A lot of space was given to a discussion on fiscal money – coupons issued by the state to people for use in tax payments. We recall that Yanis Varoufakis worked on a similar scheme for Greece, and one of his advisers at the time gave some details of how such a scheme can be made to work and why it did not work in Greece. The answer is that it requires an extraordinary degree of technical and logistical preparation that is outside the scope of what most governments are physically capable of.

Conferences such as these never reach consensus, but they bring up questions. One of the questions on fiscal money is whether it is sustainable or merely transitional. Is it just an instrument through which a country transitions to a new currency, or just a short-term liquidity measure, or can it work as a supplemental form of money?

Another discussion that struck us was a paper by Alberto Bagnai and Brigitte Granville, who did a stochastic simulation of the costs of euro exit. They noted that there would be an initial cost but that strong counter-cyclical growth would soon resume. The problem with this simulation is that it does not take sufficiently into account the multiple financial shocks that are likely to be dominant during such a phase. Euro exit would do major damage to the financial system both of Italy and the eurozone. The authors have a variable that includes a banking crisis, but we do not think this does justice to the financial Armageddon we are likely to see after an Italian euro exit.

And finally, we noted a comment by Heiner Flassbeck, formerly at the German finance ministry and Unctad, who noted that there can be no solution to the eurozone’s persistent crisis unless one insists on symmetric adjustment in the eurozone. He advocates the strategy that Italy should make a credible threat to leave the eurozone in order to force a German policy shift.

All of Italy’s major political parties, except for the  Democratic Party, the party of Matteo Renzi’s failed government, have flirted with supporting moves to leave the Euro. The current front runners in polls, not that polls are a predictor of outcomes, as we have learned several times recently, with only the french election reflecting polling figures and it is widely suspected that the French result was decided before a single vote was cast.

The path to Italeave is not easy, a referendum and a constitutional change will be required before any decision can be ratified, but trouble is brewing on a huge number of fronts simultaneously:

The Italian banking system is insolvent.
Another refugee crisis is brewing as flimsy, overloaded boats bring thousands of new illegal entrants every week.
Italy’s youth unemployment is a whopping 37%
The ECB is the only buyer for Italian bonds and yields are at record levels
Italy’s debt to GDP ratio is over 130% to the consternation of Eurozone officials
The global recovery still is not happening or EU members.
It is no longer taboo in Italy to talk of leaving the EU or taking back control of the nation’s borders.

Any number of things could start a chain reaction making Italeave look good to a majority of Italian voters. And despite the recent stitch up of Five Star movement in local elections, the other anti – immigration, anti – federalisation parties, Liga Nord and Forza Italia made big advances.

And when Italy goes, more will follow, at an accelerating rate we predict.

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UK Threatens To Quit Brexit Talks Over EU Excessive Severance Cash Demands

It was never going to be easy, nobody who knows anything about the small minded bureaucrats who run the EU and their vindictive responses to any individual or organisation which obstructs what they, misguidedly, think is their irresistible march toward linking up with the USA and establishing a global technocratic government would have been aware that the Brussels bureaucracy’s response to Brexit would be to punish the arrogant British for their defiance.

With negotiations between the UK and EU likely to formally begin on June 19, Bloomberg reports that Brexit Secretary David Davis has pre-emptively lashed out at EU officials, threatening that “The UK will quit talks on leaving the European Union unless the bloc drops its demands for a divorce payment as high as EUR100bn.”

Britain’s negotiations would otherwise be plunged into “chaos,” and even a 1 billion-pound settlement would be “a lot of money,” Davis said in an interview published in the Sunday Times. Actually Davis and his colleagues on Britain’s negotiating team have audaciously suggested thast not only will Britain owe the EU nothing on leaving the organisation, but in fact the EU will owe Britain tens of €billions.

As Bloomberg notes, the size of Britain’s exit bill, and which types of negotiations can begin before it has been agreed, has been a source of debate for weeks.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has said the U.K. will have to pay about 50 billion pounds, while Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Xavier Bettel has signaled a figure between 40 billion euros and 60 billion euros.

The Financial Times estimated the cost could balloon to 100 billion euros, while a study by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales put the cost at as low as 5 billion pounds ($6.5 billion).

Britain’s conservative government has said it will meet its commitments to the EU, but has questioned how Brussels officials reached their preliminary estimates… especially the oddly round number of 100-billion-euros…

“We don’t need to just look like we can walk away, we need to be able to walk away…Under the circumstances, if that was necessary, we would be in a position to do it.”

UK Prime Minister Theresa May commented on the Brexit bill in an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, by saying that “money paid in the past” by the U.K. into joint EU projects and the European Investment Bank ought to be taken account in the final sum.

“There is much debate about what the U.K.’s obligations might be or indeed what our rights might be,” she said.

“We make it clear that we would look at those both rights and obligations.”

A spokesperson for Barclays said the bank fears that two years may not be enough time to complete the comprehensive Brexit talks neded for a ‘soft’ exit. Which leaves three possible paths ahead…The soft, the hard and the ugly Brexit

While it remains unclear what kind of Brexit PM May is seeking, we believe that her insistence on regaining control of borders and withdrawing from the European Court of Justice is fundamentally inconsistent with the EU’s negotiating position, which is basically that no member state is allowed to completely quit the EU, and makes a hard Brexit, involving leaving the single market unavoidable. The ugly Brexit option is that Britain, unable to hold any rational discussions with the world domination freaks in Brussels simply walks away. That would harm the EU significantly more that the UK.

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Hollande Proves EU Leaders Are Delusional And Out Of Touch

You have to marvel at the stupidity of the pro – federalisation leaders of some European Union member states. They seem to thin that even now, though Article 50 has been implemented and the ‘Brexit’ process that will take Britain out of the EU, and with bookies taking bets on whether Italy, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland or Denmark will be first to follow them, these multicultural wankers still think they can dictate to the British government on how we have to run our country.

Take this story in today’s Daily Telegraph for example:

French president Francois Hollande tells Theresa May he will frustrate her hopes of a swift Brexit deal

So the cheese scoffing petit crapaud thinks he can frustrate the Brexit deal and punish Britain for frustrating the socialist dream of a bureaucratic empire stretching from Ireland to The Euphrates does he? And how does the little wanker intend to do that when he will no longer be President of anywhere by the eighth of May? Polls in mainstream media are currently predicting pro – federalism centre left candidate will beat Marine Le Pen to the presidency but mainstream media’s bias towards the left make their reporting totally unreliable. Using the method that enabled this blog to correctly call the Brexit result and Donald Trump’s victory in the USA we now believe Le Pen’s chances are far greater than polling companies and the media are suggesting.

Two striking similarities between France and last year’s US election are the huge proportion of voters polled saying they are still undecided just weeks before the election, and the fact that like Trump, Le Pen is packing them in and filing arenas at her election rallies while Macron is playing to small auditoriums that are less than half full, just as Hillary Clinton was last year.

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France Chaos Becoming A Threat To The Entire European Union

News services in Germany and around mainland Europe are expressing concerns that the current chaos in France, could easily spread, as it has come just when news is focused on the Brexit campaign while public anger at economic stagnation, high unemployment, unsustainable levels of immigration and the authoritarian attitude of senior EU bureaucrats is at an all time high.

France Chaos Becoming A Threat To The Entire European Union

 

The centre left, federalist, oligarchical collectivist political consensus that had dominated European Union politics for thirty years is disintegrating. UKIP in the UK, Front National in France, Italy’s Five Star movement and Liga Nord, Syriza in Greece and the Swedeb Democrats have set in train a grassroots rebellion against bureaucratic dictatorship from Brussels. Establishment parties of centre-left and centre-right – La Casta, as they say in Spain – have successively immolated themselves by imposing laws and policies forulated in Brussels against the interests of their own citizens.

Spain’s Bolivarian Podemos party, a recent start up, is currently topping the polls and with only moths to go to an election the popularity shows no sign of fading. Podemos has endured crippling internal rifts. It has shrugged off hostile press coverage over financial ties to Venezuela. Nothing sticks, simply because Podemos is anti establishment and the parties of the polical establishment and the political, business and bureaucratiuc establishment are recognized as irredeemably corrupt and rotten to the core.

The insurrectionists who came from nowhere last year, with Trotskyist roots and more radically left wing views than those of Syriza in Greece, are pulling further ahead in the polls. The latest Metroscopia survey gave Podemos 28pc. The ruling conservatives have dropped to 21pc.

Europe’s policy elites can rail angrily at the folly of these plans if they wish, but they must answer why ex-Trotskyists with a plan to dismantle market capitalism are taking a major EMU state by storm. It is what happens 5.46m people lack jobs, when 2m households still have no earned income, when youth unemployment is still running at 51.4pc and rising, and home prices are down 42pc, and the economy six years into a depression and with only fraudulent statistics to defend its policies.

The EU elites themselves have run their currency experiment into the ground by imposing synchronized monetary, fiscal, and banking contraction on the southern half of EMU, in defiance of known economic science and the lessons of the 1930s. It is they who pushed the eurozone into deflation, and thereby pushed the debtor states further into compound-interest traps.

It is they who deployed the EMU policy machinery to uphold the interests of creditors, refusing to acknowledge that the root cause of Europe’s crisis was a flood excess capital flows into vulnerable economies. It is they who prevented a US-style recovery from the financial crisis, and they should not be surprised that such historic errors are coming back to haunt.

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Back to Contents table

Cameron Plays Deal Or No Deal In Europe
David Cameron, who was apparently up all night trying to make other European leaders understand why his country needs a better deal in order to poersuade the prople it is a good idea stay in the EU. Unless Cameron gets what will enable him to sell the idea of surrendering national sovereignty to a Federal European Superstate ruled by a committee of unelected bureaucrats in to the British public he will not campaign for the UK to remain in the bloc

It Starts At The Finnish


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Opposite of Transparency: Germany’s TTIP Room ‘Smacks of Totalitarianism’

TTIPTTttip-trojanisches-pferd-europa

TTIP will open the gates for a corporate power grab in the western democracies (Image)

from Sputnik News
Nothing in TTIP for small businesses says German Left Party MP Katia Kipping

With concerns over the controversial TTIP trade deal between the EU and US, a select number of German MPs have been granted limited access to view the agreement in its current form. Despite this initiative, lawmaker Katja Kipping has raised serious concerns about the transparency of the deal.

While some have promoted the TTIP reading room as a win for transparency, Katja Kipping from Germany’s Left Party, has shared the many restrictions placed on lawmakers hoping to gain a better grasp of the finer deals of the deal.

In the plan, announced by German Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, MPs must register to access the reading room and are only allowed to spend two hours reading the documents, while mobile phones and other electronic devices must be stored away in a secure locker.

The TTIP document is available on a computer screen that isn’t connected to the Internet, and while lawmakers can make notes, they cannot copy any quotes from the consolidated texts and they cannot share the details of the agreement in public or in parliament.

“Even the registration procedure for the reading room speaks volumes. Once I’d registered, I was sent the instructions on how to use the room,” Kipping wrote in a review of her reading room experience.

“The first thing that I noticed was that the terms and conditions had already been the subject of negotiations between the European Commission and the USA. Get your head round that: TTIP isn’t even signed yet, and already individual countries have lost the right to decide who gets to read the texts, and on what terms.”

MPs Not Allowed Expert Assistance

Kipping also took exception to an MPs’ rulebook that stated being granted access to the texts was an example of “an exceptional degree of trust.”

“Now I’d always thought that elected MPs have a right to information. Yet the TTIP negotiators (and who gave them their legitimacy?) reckon they are GRANTING us access out of the goodness of their hearts. Access as a sign of exceptional trust. Whoever wrote that — did they really think that we MPs would feel flattered? To me it smacks more of totalitarianism. ‘Granting access’ and ‘extending trust’ is not the language you use if you really believe in democracy.”

To make the complexities of the deal more difficult, Kipping said MPs weren’t allowed to bring in experts help deconstruct the technical jargon associated with the text, which was supplied in English only.

“We are not even allowed to take security-cleared specialists with us into the reading room. As for members of the public, who will ultimately have to bear the brunt of TTIP, they are to have no access whatsoever to the secret text. Not what transparency looks like in my book,” she wrote.

Kipping: Viewing Documents Didn’t Change my Mind

Proponents of the TTIP say that member states will experience an economic boost and increased trade, while many small and medium-sized businesses would greatly benefit from the agreement, which aims to slash trade barriers between the US and EU.


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More in this blog:
The German Interior Ministry has revealed a new “Bundestrojaner” or government trojan horse software that will enable security agencies to track the smartphone activities of anyone who downloads it. We understand Chancellor Merkel’s government has also adopted an “off the shelf” tool from a company which is said to help authoritarian regimes track their citizens …New German Government Smartphone Spyware Will Monitor Citizens’ Calls, Typing AND See Through Their Camera Lenses

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Obama Goes Full – On Nazi: “US Accused of Forcing EU to Accept Tar Sands Oil Trade
Germany Axes Canada-EU Trade Agreement, This Will End TTIP Stitch Up Too
France’s President Hollande Says ‘Non’ To Obama’s Demand for Corporate Global Oligarchy
The Death Of Democracy – Lobbying For TTIP
Syriza Official Vows to Kill EU-US Trade Deal as ‘Gift to All European People’
Now We Know Why Huge TPP Trade Deal Is Kept Secret From the Public
Leaked EU – TTIP document: Destruction of Democracy planned
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Italy’s Prime Minister Says Merkel Unilateral Initiative On Migrant Crisis Is Unacceptable

We have been reporting on the breakup of the EU for several years now. The immigrant crisis, the problems with the European Single currency system and its detrimental effect on the weaker economies among its twenty seven members, and the increasing encroachment of the Brussels bureaucracy on matters of national sovereignty are symptoms of a greater malaise.


The glory that was Rome. but Italy is still one of the world’s largest economies and a prod nation. Chancellor Merkel is foolish to belittle its EU partner (Image source)

The divisions between German leader Angela Merkel and her main allies in the EU, French President Francois Hollande and E U Commission President Jean – Claude Juncker, and the leaders of many other member states deepening, Italy is the latest nation to assert its sovereignty against the increasing trend of decisions being made by the German and French governments in collaboration with Brussels bureaucrats and them imposed on other EU members.

It is unacceptable for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to cut deals on Europe’s refugee crisis with French President Francois Hollande and the head of the European Commission without involving Italy, Italy’s leader has said, according to a report from Reuters.

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, whose country is one of the main entry points for migrants from north Africa and the middle east to enter Europe illegally, has stepped up his criticism of the EU on a number of issues as he tries to deal with Italy’s stubbornly low economic growth after three years of recession.

Speaking as he prepared to meet Hausfrau – Volksfuhrer Merkel in Berlin on Friday, Renzi told German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung he would be happy if the German chancellor and President Hollande could solve all Europe’s problems.

“But that is generally not the case,” he said in an interview published in the paper’s Thursday edition.

“If we’re looking for a joint European strategy to solve the refugee question, it can’t be sufficient for Angela to first call Hollande and then EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, and that I learn of the result in the press,” he added.

More than one million migrants have reached Europe over the past year, many of them fleeing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Africa and elsewhere. The crisis has strained relations between EU member states and tested their commitment to Europe’s open-borders Schengen agreement. This figure does not include any estimate for the ones who have avoided registering as refugees, asylum seekers or economic migrants and simply disappeared into the city ghettoes. One estimate puts the number at 600,000 for Germany alone.

Renzi recently dismissed calls by the groups executive branch, to tone down his criticism of EU policies on European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker for Italy to desist from criticizing the EU’s disastrous immigration policy, and failure to address issues related to jobs, unemployment, industry, banking and the budget.

“Italy deserves respect,” Renzi reportedly retorted.

“I think that the Italian Prime Minister, whom I respect a lot, is wrong to criticise the Commission at each street corner,” Juncker told reporters in Brussels, hinting at possible domestic reasons for the criticism.

“I keep my bitterness, which is big, in my pocket,” Juncker added. He is also repouted to keep a big bottle of brandy in his pocket.

Caught between the crossfire of two anti-euro opposition parties in Rome and wrestling with stubbornly low economic output after three years of recession, Renzi has opened up disputes with the EU on several fronts. Though this is seen as a diversionary tactic in Europe, Italy does have genuine grounds to object to the way Germany has used its dominant position in the 28 member group of nations.

A big part of the problem is that in pursuit of the Marxist ideal of a single global government with all the peoples of the world enslaved by a ruling elite (what Gorge Orwell called ‘Oligarchical Collectivism’ in his novel of a dystopian future, ‘1984’ the EU bureaucracy and socialist leaders of the most powerful nations have deliberately imported third world cultural and sectarian problems in an effort to destabilise the democratic systems of Europe and pave the way for a bureaucratic dictatorship that would extent the EU into north Africa and the middle east.

The Islamization Of France In 2015


The Muslim population of France reached 6.5 million in 2015, or around 10% of the overall population of 66 million. In real terms, France has the largest Muslim population in the European Union, just above Germany.

Although French law prohibits the collection of official statistics about the race or religion of its citizens, this estimate is based on several studies that attempted to calculate the number of people in France whose origins are from Muslim-majority countries.

What follows is a chronological review of some of the main stories about the rise of Islam in France during 2015:

JANUARY

January 1. The Interior Ministry announced the most anticipated statistic of the year: a total of 940 cars and trucks were torched across France on New Year’s Eve, a 12% decrease from the 1,067 vehicles burned during the annual ritual on the same holiday in 2014. Car burnings, commonplace in France, are often attributed to rival Muslim gangs that compete with each other for the media spotlight over which can cause the most destruction. An estimated 40,000 cars are burned in France every year.

January 3. A 23-year-old Muslim man in Metz tried to strangle a police officer while shouting “Allahu Akbar!” (“Allah is the greatest!”). The assault took place at the police station after the man, who was arrested for purse-snatching, asked the officer to bring him a glass of water. When the policeman opened the cell door, the man lunged at him. The officer was rescued by a colleague who saw the scene unfold on a video surveillance camera.

January 7-9. A series of jihadist attacks in Paris left 17 people dead. The first and deadliest of the attacks occurred on January 7, when French-born Islamic radicals Chérif and Saïd Kouachi stormed the offices of the magazine Charlie Hebdo and fatally shot eight employees, two police officers, and two others, and injured eleven other people. On January 8, a third assailant in the attacks, Amedy Coulibaly, shot and killed municipal police officer Clarissa Jean-Philippe in Montrouge, a suburb of Paris. On January 9, Coulibaly entered a HyperCacher kosher supermarket in Paris, killed four people and took several hostages. Coulibaly was killed when police stormed the store. His female accomplice, Hayat Boumeddiene, France’s “most wanted woman,” remains at large and is believed to have fled to Syria.

Read full article from The Gatestone Institute

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Russia Outmanoeuvres the west again

While mainstream media (and even some of the more rabidly fascistic left wing bloggers) have been trying to demonize Russia as a way of drumming up public sympathy for Barack Obama’s efforts to start a shooting war with Moscow, we Boggart Bloggers and our friendses (sorry, been watching The Hobbit with my grandchildren, gollum!) Little Nicky Machiavelli and The Daily Stirrerhave been diligently reporting on how Russia and China are quietly winning the real World War Three, the war to replace the US dollar as global reserve currency and end American – European economic dominance.

As the world waits for the outcome of the latest crisis over attempts to resolve the debt problem in Greece and thus hold the Eurozone together, we can claim once again to have been right when months ago we reported the new Greek government, Syriza, would turn to Russia for help in finding a way out of the Euro.

The Independent reports Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras made the coded threat Friday as he shared a platform with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin at the St Petersburg Economic Forum, hinting that
Greece would consider a Russian financial lifeline as it looks to find a way out of its crushing debt burden to the European Union (EU).

The revelation came only a day after “cash for reforms” negotiations between Greece and its eurozone creditors collapsed, bringing a catastrophic default on 30 June closer to reality.

Mr Tsipras described Russia as one of “Greece’s most important partners” while criticizing the EU sanctions imposed on Russia last year. Choosing words likely to be interpreted as a clear warning to the country’s creditors that Greece may look to Russia if the country falls out of the eurozone, Mr Tsipras repeated warnings that his country is looking at all its financial options.

On the back of that report we also learned Russia and Greece have signed a deal to create a joint enterprise for construction of the Turkish Stream pipeline across Greek territory, Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak revealed the pipeline will have a capacity of 47 billion cubic meters a year.

The construction costs are about €2 billion and the parties will sign a roadmap Friday, Novak told RIA at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum.

The Greek extension of the Turkish Stream project is called the South European pipeline in the memorandum signed on Friday, Novak said, adding that the construction will start in 2016 and be completed by 2019.

The two countries will have equal shares in the company, Novak said.Construction of the pipeline in Greece will be financed by Russia, and Athens will return the money afterward.

The Russian shareholder in the joint enterprise will be state-owned Vnesheconombank (VEB), Novak said.

Greek Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis said the Friday meeting was“historical”.

So things are turning out exactly as we said they would. As US/EU global domination plans crush the financial and political sovereignty of smaller nations that get in the way of the globalisation project, Russia and China are making new alliances. The new BRICS bank, the AAIB and other moves show who is winning the currency war