“Like It Was Designed To Infect Humans”: Man – made COVID-19 Theory Gains Steam

We told you so. Cast your mind back to late February / early March. This blog was among the first to bring you information about the well respected research biologists who were of the opinion that the virus that had raged through China and escaped to the west was a genetically engineered organism, developed in a laboratory.

At that stage and even now it was impossible to say with certainty that it was designed as a biological weapon or had been a piece of legitimate research gone wrong, but those voices still trumpeting the official narrative that it is a virus that jumped several species gaps to infect humans, though they still have an audience among the section of the society  that believes Governments and The United Nation are our friends and always have our best interests at heart, are sounding increasingly forlorn as evidence mount that COVID – 19 was no acciident, eith natural or of human origin.

From Zero Hedge 25 May 2020

A scientific study which found COVID-19 may have been a “cell-culture” uniquely adapted for transmission to humans (more so than any other animal – including bats), is gaining steam.

The paper, currently under peer review, comes from Flinders University Professor Nikolai Petrovsky, who has spent over two decades developing vaccines against influenza, Ebola, and animal Sars. He says his findings allow for the possibility that COVID-19 leaked from a laboratory, according to Sky News.

“The two possibilities which I think are both still open is that it was a chance transmission of a virus from an as yet unidentified animal to human. The other possibility is that it was an accidental release of the virus from a laboratory,” said Petrovsky, adding “Certainly we can’t exclude the possibility that this came from a laboratory experiment rather than from an animal. They are both open possibilities.”
Continue reading >>>

Pandemic of pandemics
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Coronavirus: COVID19 Created In A Lab Theory Resurrected & more. 17 April 2020
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COVID 19 Coronavirus: Statistics And Lies

Continue reading

Coronavirus Psychotherapist: Lockdown Zealots Are Behaving Like Cult Members

The lockdown failed, but not without causting near – terminal damage to the economies of countries that followed WHO advice, so why are so many people demanding that we all stay under house arrest indefinitely?

Psychotherapist Dr Hugh Willbourn has joined the numbers of medical professionals and researchers pushing back against the fake science that has dominated government thinking for so long and led directly to lockdowns being ordered as the only way of avoiding atronomical (but totally fictitious,) numbers of COVID – 19 induced deaths. Dr. Willbourne says lockdown zealots are displaying all the classic signs of cult members by doubling down on their beliefs despite having been proven wrong and the “evidence” provided by their mathematical models completely debunked.

In an article which can be read online, Willbourn cites the work of respected social psychologist Leon Festinger, who analyzed the behaviour of a 1950s UFO cult the members of which believed that a flying saucer would rescue them from the coming nuclear apocalypse.

However, after the catastrophic earthquakes and floods they expected to hit the United States never arrived and their beliefs were totally disproved, “the cult members would become not less but more convinced of their beliefs.”

Festinger identified five conditions that needed to be met in order for the cult members to become more intense in their beliefs in spite of the cognitive dissonance involved.

1. There must be conviction

2. There must be commitment to this conviction

3. The conviction must be amenable to unequivocal disconfirmation

4. Such unequivocal disconfirmation must occur

5. Social support must be available subsequent to the disconfirmation.

“Festinger’s five conditions and the behaviour of the cult believers correspond closely to the situation with Brexit, Climate Change and Covid-19: a prophecy is made, believers invest themselves, their time, money and prestige in it, the prophecy fails and the believers become more fervent,” writes Willbourn..

We have certainly seen this with Brexit, the UK’s departure from the European Union despite a massive propaganda campaign from those who wished the UK to remain part of the Union and eventually become a financially and politically integrated province of a Federal European Superstate.

After the result of the refrerendum unexpectedly went against them these “Remainers” waged  another propaganda campaign, this time aimed at overturning the public vote by spreading fear and panic. They warned us the economy would collapse overnight (in fact it grew slightly faster than the EU economy at a time when the global economy was slowing down. They warned that unemployment would rise to unprecedented levels, in fact it fell. They took the government to court, won some Phyrric victories but could not change the national mood. They tried to tell us Britain, insignificant little Britain, was too small to survive outside the mighty European Union and were laughed at at it was pointed out that the UK has the fifth largest economy on the planet and a poulation of 60+ million. And still, even though we have formally left the EU and are in the process of deciding who gets to keep the pets, they rave about reversing the process.

We have seen it with climate change; we were told snow would be a thing of the past by the turn of the century but in recent years in Europe and North America many places have seen record snowfalls; we were told the polar ice caps would disappear, they’re still there; we were told that low lying nations would become uninhabitable because of rising sea levels – but those nations have experience population growth and no loss of land area. And still the Warmageddonist army  tried to turn the volume of their alarmist screeching up even though it is alread on eleven and has been for years.

The doctor notes how terrifying predictions of how many people COVID-19 would kill have fallen massively short and the models that produced these numbers have been thoroughly debunked. Despite warnings that coronavirus would kill 500,000 in the UK alone, the disease has only claimed 318,000 worldwide. And the lockdown fascists try to claim that the UK lockdown succeeded in reducing the number of deaths from 500,000 to 40,000, thus proving only that they are incapable of separating fact from fantasy.

Willbourn then goes on to put the scale of the COVID – 19 threat  this figure into perspective by reminding us the number of people who have died of, or with, Covid-19 in about four and half months is the same as the number who die in five days from cardiovascular disease.”

It is also worth remembering that the numbers of “COVID – related deaths” is less than the numbers who have died of tuberculosis ad seasonal ‘flu in the corresponding period.

In spite of all this and the incontrovertible evidence “experts” are still trying to ramp up the fear and panic, warning of mass death if lockdown is lifted too early and a second wave of infections takes place. The discredited Prof. Neil Ferguson, now exposed as a cunt – struck, communist conman whose mathematical model of the virus which led him to predict the fabled 500,000 deaths was discovered to have been full of errors and false assumptions and based on amateurish coding written by people who had never been computing professionals.

In reality, professionally conducted research has suggested the lockdowns had a minimal impact on infection numbers, and Sweden’s per capita death toll is lower than the UK’s and numerous other countries despite the Scandinavian country having imposed no hard lockdown and been widely crticized by fear and panic merchants for having not done so.

“Don’t expect an apology from our Government, or any other Government, any time soon,” Willbourn concluded. “The Festinger effect is far, far more prevalent than a clear-sighted view of reality and the tragedy is all the greater.”

“Is this starting to sound familiar?” asks journalist Toby Young. “As Willbourn points out, the sequence that Festinger wrote about more than 50 years ago is eerily reminiscent of what’s happening today: an apocalyptic prophecy was delivered from on high (“the science”), those who believed it radically altered their behaviour, the prophecy turned out not to be true, but instead of abandoning their doom-mongering the believers have become even more fervent, attacking anyone who points out the gap between fantasy and reality as dangerous heretics (“fake news”, “misinformation”, “conspiracy theories”, etc).”

“The difference, of course, is that Festinger’s UFO cult had a few dozen members, whereas the Covid cult seems to have infected half the world. If Festinger’s right, the bad news is we won’t be able to persuade people to stop social distancing if we prove that the danger posed by COVID-19 has been dramatically overstated. On the contrary, people’s opposition to returning to normal will intensify rather than diminish as the evidence mounts they were wrong.”

I have written many times in the past of the Church Of Scienceology Cult, a far more numerous quasi religion than the followers of L Ron Hubbard but no less loony. It is not yet clear whether the COVID – 19 cult is a breakway movement or a particularly fanatical sub – cult, like the climate change loonies who become more fanatical in their conviction that the world is about to be engulfed by an inferno of burning Carbon Dioxide! Yest for all their zealous devotion to The Science, actual, factual science is not a strength of such people.


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Lockdown: How can anyone defend the “scientists.”

As we digested Boris Johnson’s address to the nation this morning, and the mainstream media propagandists fell over each other to praise the Prime Ministers cautious approach and adherence to the advice of “scientists,” my own reaction was FUCK YOU BORIS, I declare lockdown over for me and my publications and while being disabled I don’t get out much at the best of times, I and possibly my colleagues will be arguing for a campaign of civil disobedience to prove the idiotic bletherings of “scientists” with their mathematical models of the real world have done more harm than good.

Which epidemiologist do you believe?

The debate about lockdown is not a contest between good and evil
by Freddie Sayers, Unherd

The past week has been a tale of two epidemiologists. First up was Swedish professor Johan Giesecke, whose interview with UnHerd a week ago caused quite a stir. Disarmingly blunt, uninterested in percentage points, Giesecke brushed aside the coronavirus pandemic with words that electrified sceptics and horrified his detractors. “I don’t think you can stop it,” he said, “it’s like a tsunami sweeping across Europe.” The real death toll, he suggested, will be in the region of a severe influenza season — maybe double that at most — so we should do what we can to slow it so the health service can cope, but let it pass.

Then, this weekend, it was the turn of Professor Neil Ferguson to answer the Swede’s critique that his overly pessimistic forecasts had tilted the Government into Chinese-style dirigisme. He cut a very different figure — more cautious, more media-trained, lacking the charismatic heft of the Professor Emeritus but making up for it with precise deployment of the facts and figures.

Unfortunately Freddie’s article falls apaet there unless you define precision as manipulation of numbers until your algorithm gives precisely the answer you wanted.

In his eagerness to present a fair and balanced view of these different academics approach to the pandemic, Freddie’s assessment, by avoiding any mention of the tack records on predicted outcomes of the two, is  far too kind to Ferguson. It is a matter of record that he was instrumental in the grotesquely disastrous response to foot and mouth (which was handled far more rationally in the Netherlands) and that he was far too alarmist about the predicted SARS pandemic which cause the World Health Organisation to change the definition of ‘pandemic’ from “hundreds of millions of people all around the world will be infected and milions will die,” to ” a few people here and there will be a little bit poorly..

Moreover, evidence seems to be growing that nations and US states that did not impose severe lockdowns have seen fewer infections and deaths per million. Reports from Sweden where the option of lockdown was rejected, the government having decided that those who survived the pandemic (an overwhelming majority,) needed a nation with a functioning economy. Shutting people up in enclosed spaces has probably caused more deaths than allowing people to go out and get sunshine and fresh air – while quarantining the vulnerable and banning mass participation events, of course.

Without implying any support for anything Donal Trump is alleged to have sais, it is known that UV light destroys viruses very quickly, and so in sunny weather such as we have enjoyed in Britain during the lockdown period, and even on days with a light covering of cloud, we are very unlikely to be infected with a virus while outside so long as we do not start getting up close and personal with strangers.

Ferguson is primarily a statistician and a computer modeller – much like the IPCC ‘climatologists’ who gave us overheated projections which have not materialised.
Ferguson’s and Imperial College’s dependence on large-scale funding from the Gates Foundation, the of which and also of Microsoft – the company that made ‘not-fit-for-purpose acceptable quality to put on the market, is Bill Wannabe Galactic Emperor Palpatine Gates, who has been pushing the for profit vaccine manufacturer his charitable foundation owns to the forefront of the race to develop a vaccine against COVID – 19, does not exactly create confidence in the accuracy and objectivity of their projections.
As with the IPCC, the projections serve a political and social-transformation agenda.

The question is not of believing wither one or the other of these so called experts but detailed anaysis analysis of the FACTS. For the USA, from where we have the most reliable information, (UK figures are horribly distored to justify actions which have inflicted economic damage that will take decades to repair, ) facts on positive cases (numerator) over total tested (denominator) reflect a rapid percentage drop in the deaths against population. As to Ferguson, his views are as dangerous as his forecasts:
2,001 – All farm animals, even of species not affected by foot and mouth disease, on farms where the disease had been identified and adjacent farms even if they had had no cases of foot and mouth be slaughtered to prevent the disease crossing the species gap and killing humans, (actually it does not kill animals  except in rare cases, but does destroy their economic value.
2002 – 50 000 CJD  (Mad Cow Disease) estimated deaths revised upwards to 150 000 if sheep were infected. FACT, CJD Research Surveillance Unit at Uni of Edinburgh report 178 deaths since 1990
2005 – Up to 200 MILLION (!!!) deaths from Bird Flu (H5N1). WHO reports in 2006 78 out of 147 reported.
2009 – Swine flu would result in 65 000 deaths in UK. Ended up at 457.

Clearly he is deluded, stupid or downright dishonest (yes Prof Ferguson I just libelled you, I hope to hear from your lawyers soon – but I will not be holding my breath.)

The focus needs to move from death figures to quality of life and quality of death. We all die sometime, it is how well we live our lives up to that point and when we die the impact that has on those who mourn us. It is known that the majority of deaths have been among people over retirement age and, expressed as a percentage the curve steepens more sharply the further past retirement we get.

The main criterium in justifying the lockdown was that the Reinfection (R) rate should n be below 1, i.e. the average number of people infected by someone carrying the virus should be less than one. When the 5 tests were first announced the ‘R’ test was: we must not have a second peak that overwhelms the NHS. That changed to there must be no risk of a second peak – R must not get above 1.

We also need to look at all cause mortality ie the people who are not dying from the virus but because of the measures taken to stop it. How many people are going to have an agonising death from cancer because they are not being treated early enough or how many are dying of cardio vascular problems because they are not seeking help in time?

I have often noted in the past few weeks that everything in life is a risk, from crossing the road to eating an unfamiliar food that might give you anaphylactic shock. This is the inherent problem with the Ferguson mathematical modelling  approach, he starts from the position that all risk can be eliminated but it can’t.

There can be no doubt that people are already dying from the lockdown, people are not going to GP or A&E with serious medial issues, cancer patients aren’t getting treated, diagnosis is being delayed etc. That’s before we get to the grim toll of suicides which will result from mental health issues arising from the effects of isolation, or from the financial distress caused by loss of jobs, income, house, etc. Yet Prof. Ferguson argues that most, if not all the lockdown restrictions should remain in place unti a vaccine is available, a statement that echoes the words of his paymaster Bill Gates in that disturbingly creepy interview he did for the BBC a couple of weeks ago.

The vaccine cult brings us to the “elephant in the room”. What if we don’t get a vaccine?
Everything out there says we probably won’t get a vaccine for some time, it probably won’t be that effective and there is every likely hood it won’t work at all. What then? If there is no vaccine or one that only protects for a short time we will have to go back to normal life and accept the consequences ie deaths!

The lockdown was designed to slow the spread of the virus until the NHS could create the capacity to cope. It’s been created. Now the goal posts are being moved to one of trying to defeat the virus. We can’t defeat any virus, we need a reality check. Life won’t stop and the lockdown will be gone long before the virus!

Fear and Panic
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Scientist who convinced Boris lockdown was the only way to beat coronavirus criticised many times for flawed research
Is This The Smoking Gun That Proves China Has Lied About The Coronavirus


Pandemic Computer Modelling Fraud Is Exposed By Real Data

An article published in  Technocracy last month,  The Common Roots Of Climate Change And COVID-19 Hysteria  exposed the dishonest – scaremongering tactics of global warming alarmists as they seized the opportunity provided by COVID-19 to trigger the largest global economic crisis in history.

Warmageddonists have always dreamed of killing the “brown economy” and replacing it with a green economy, a system they call Sustainable Development, which would return us to low tech industry and peasant farming methods hardly likely to sustain the 7.7 billion humans that populate the planet now. It is less than 30 days since  Imperial College London released a data model created by a “scientist” with a 100% record of being totally wrong in his predictions of catastrophe during outbreaks of disease. And yet, even though his “scientific conclusions” aka guesses and assumptions have steered governments towards hugely damaging policy decisions.  Professor Ferguson’s model predicted 500,000 deaths in the UK and 1.2 million in the U.S.A if those nations were not put into lockdown, a move that was certain to cause immeasurable economic damage and social disorder in those countries. The whole narrative spun by government propagandists based on the predictions of those flawed models is now falling apart, but the damage has been done and cannot be reversed.

The World Health Organization is a full-fledged agency of the United Nations, which has driven the above mentioned climate change scare, the objective of which was to pave the way for a world government and which has recently lost credibility to the extent that the propagandists had to deploy a weird looking, retarded child to broadcast their lies and scaremongering in the hope that nobody would attack such a pitiable figure. The ploy failed, so when the government of China reported an outbreak of a news strain of the SARS – coronavirus it was seized on as an opportunity to scare the people and nations of the world into compliance with an agenda that would result in the abolition of democracy and individual freedom. The WHO’s estimated mortality rate for COVID – 19, as gleefully reported by mainstream media is 20-30 times higher than the actual death rate being reported by Stanford University of between 0.1 and 0.2 percent.

The number of actual deaths of COVID-19, as opposed to people who died of something else while carrying the infection having contracted it in hospital when already terminally ill, and more recently what is vaguely reported as “coronaviris – related deaths,would not likely be changed if no panic was ever triggered by means of false news and over – dramatic actions to “stop the virus” in the first place. If governments had behaved rationally instead of listening to “scientists” who rely on mathematical models rather that looking at the real world, perhaps it would only have been a nastier-than-usual flu season. However, the Great Panic of 2020 has caused innumerable non coronavirus-related deaths and plunged the global economic system into a downward spiral from which it will take years to recover. Millions are now out of work. Tens of thousands of businesses closed by order of “scientists” will never reopen. People in need of health care are reluctant to present themselves to a hospital for fear of picking up the virus – hospitals are the best place to catch it actually

The reality of this crisis is that a few self – interested Technocrats who knew exactly what the consequenses of metaphorically yelling “FIRE!” in a crowded theater would be and, although to an unbiased observer give every appearance of playing out a scripted scene in a far bigger production will never be held accountable for their despicable and fraudulent decieving of society. Concerned citizens should stop obsessing over who made COVID-19 and the street-corner where it first appeared, and instead focus on the real instigators and their real motivations, the people who have been planning for and working towards an authoritarian world government for years.


‘It’s kind of a rule of thumb’: Adviser reveals UK govt’s 2-meter social distance instruction based on ‘muddy science’

from RT, 25 April 2020

The British public cannot be expected to just do as they’re told by the government for long, since the guidelines are very disruptive and not as scientifically sound as officials make them seem to be, a government adviser said.

One example would be the instruction for people to keep two meters apart from other people to reduce the risk of infection, advice which was “conjured out of nowhere,” according to professor Robert Dingwall.

“There’s never been a scientific basis for two meters, it’s kind of a rule of thumb. But it’s not like there is a whole kind of rigorous scientific literature that it is founded upon,” he told BBC’s Radio 4. Evidence exists that observing a one meter distance would be beneficial during an epidemic, but even that “comes out of indoor studies in clinical and experimental settings.”Continue reading >>>

Fear and Panic


More Off – Mainstream News: 11 April, 2020

Chilling Documentary Maps Out Likely Origin Of COVID-19

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times,

While The Epoch Times began publishing reports of the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus on Jan. 2, most outlets had yet to pick up on the story because of the CCP’s lockdown on information. Three months later, over 200 countries and territories have been infected and the CCP virus has caused over 85,000 deaths infecting at least 1.4 million, but information is murkier than ever.

“We’ve pretty much heard every rumor under the sun. We’ve heard every theory, every crazy rumor, we’ve heard all these different narratives,” said Joshua Philipp, award-winning investigative reporter and host of the show “Crossroads.”

The rumors aren’t by accident: The CCP has been actively engaging in a disinformation campaign, and media outlets around the world have parroted the propaganda. As a result, entire nations have been operating under false information as they try to battle the pandemic within their borders.

Screenshot of the documentary “Tracking Down the Origin of Wuhan Coronavirus.” (Courtesy Epoch Times)

Philipp and his colleages at The Epoch Times and NTD Television thought it their responsibility to sift through all the information available, verify it, and put it into one place. The result is the just-premiered documentary “Tracking Down the Origin of the Wuhan Coronavirus,” which is available to watch online … Continue reading >>>

MORE on COVID coronavirus China link

Coronavirus Fact-Check #3: “Covid19 is 20x DEADLIER than the flu!”

from Off Guardia, 11 April 2020
One of the buzz-stats doing the rounds says this novel virus is far more dangerous than influenza, does the science hold up?

Since the early days of the current pandemic, the go-to comparison has been influenza, both the specific historical outbreaks and the general seasonal “flus” (a catch-all term for respiratory viruses) which hit all over the world every winter.

That comparison is very often met with this simple retort:

Covid is nothing like the flu, it’s 20 times more dangerous!”

But is this true?

No, it’s not.

While the generally accepted flu death rate of 0.1% is twenty times lower than the media reported Covid19 death rate of between 2% and 4%, research suggests the media-reported death rate is far too high.

The World Health Organization has estimated Covid19’s “official” death rate at 3.4%, clinical studies done on Sars-Cov-2 put its actual case-fatality ratio at around 0.1%. Roughly equal that of regular season flu outbreaks.

The problem arises from what scientists and statisticians call “selection bias”:

the bias introduced by the selection of individuals, groups or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby ensuring that the sample obtained is not representative

Essentially, the way you choose your sample can have a huge impact on the results of your study … Continue reading >>>

MORE on the fear and Panic pandemic

UK will have to live with some restrictions until coronavirus vaccine is developed, say officials

‘Normal life will stay on hold until a virus vaccine becomes available in about 18 months, officials said last night.

Advice to work from home and stay in for seven days if you have symptoms will probably still be in place next year.

Ministers want to lift the most restrictive parts of the lockdown, including school and shop closures, within weeks.

But senior Government sources say the only true ‘exit strategy’ is a vaccine or a cure. Until then, the UK will have to adjust to a ‘new normal’.

An official last night told The Telegraph that social distancing measures that have been placed upon Britons could be ‘indefinite’… Continue reading >>>

Don’t be evil, just OBEY: After Covid-19 tech giants will have even more control over what you see & what you think

Don’t be evil, just OBEY: After Covid-19 tech giants will have even more control over what you see & what you think
Silicon Valley’s algorithms are controlling your cognitive map, and Congress is letting it happen. Covid-19 is providing the perfect cover to bolster that control — just in time for the 2020 election.
Neoliberalism was the perfect cover for oligarchs to unleash ideological wafrom Anorak Newsrfare to protect the billions they’ve plundered from taxpayers.Trillions of dollars flowed into Silicon Valley, the birthplace of digital censorship — censorship that in many ways is more dangerous and insidious than the failed coup d’état of a sitting US president with the farcical Russiagate and impeachment hoax. Over the past two decades, democratic societies have been manipulated by Silicon Valley’s unregulated big-tech behemoths, which now control the news flow and have weaponized Amazon, Facebook, Google, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, Netflix, PayPal, Reddit, TikTok, Microsoft, Apple and the very dangerous Internet Of Things (sped along by 5G) … Continue reading >>>


Cambridge police patrol the aisles at Tesco supermarket

from Anorak News, 11 April 2020

A tweet from the Cambridge police force aka twitter’s ‘Cambridge Cops’: “Officers visited Tesco Barhill this morning as part of their patrols around supermarkets and green spaces this weekend. Good to see everyone was abiding by social distancing measures and the non essential aisles were empty. #1732”

File under: essential policing.

MORE stories about police state Britain



Scientist who convinced Boris lockdown was the only way to beat coronavirus criticised many times for flawed research

The scientist whose mathematical models of how the coronavirus would spread in the UK and the wildly exaggerated estimates of how many deaths might result from the epidemic reportedly led to the decision to implement a countrywide lockdown and trash the economy has been criticised in the past for flawed research.

In fact Professor Neil Ferguson, of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London, who authored and published a research paper predicting that The UK was likely to see 250,000 premature deaths during a coronavirus epidemic unless measures to effectively shut down the country were taken. It is this research which convinced Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet and advisors to introduce the lockdown.

Neil Ferguson: would you buy a used mathematical model from this man (Picture: Daily Telegraph_

It is, however, always unsafe to accept the word of one scientist or one research project, and it seems Prof. Ferguson is such an incorrigible publicity junkie he has a track record for making exaggerated and sensationalised claims about the probable outcomes of various crises which is longer than the Tour de France course. It is now being discussed publicly that Ferguson has a long established reputation for making predictions based on allegedly faulty assumptions and the results of mathematical models which have nonetheless shaped government strategies and impacted the UK economy. We have to cease this deification of scientists now. They are not impartial and objective seekers after truth, but are every bit as self interested as the rest of us. And when we look at Freguson’s career and the disastrous policy decisions his methematical models have lead to, the best we can say is “He’s not The Messiah, he’sa a very naughty boy,” (h/t Monty Python’s Flying Circus.)

The 2001 model used by Professor Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London concluded that the culling of animals include not only those found to be infected with the virus but also those on adjacent farms even if there was no physical evidence of infection.

“Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic, and it is essential that the control measures now in place be maintained as case numbers decline to ensure eradication,” said their report which as presented to government, but published after the cull began

This mass slaughter – technically known as contiguous culling – triggered disgust in the British public as news video night after night showed the corpses of healthy animals being stacked, soaked with fuel oil and burned, and also prompted analyses of the methodology which led to such an appalling and, as it turned out, unjustified conclusion.

An analysis of Ferguson’s research published in the 2011 paper, Destructive Tension: mathematics versus experience – the progress and control of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, found that the government had ordered the destruction of millions of animals on evidence from “severely flawed” modelling.

According to one of its authors – the former head of the Pirbright Laboratory at the Institute for Animal Health, Dr Alex Donaldson – Ferguson’s models made a “serious error” by “ignoring the species composition of farms,” (a fairly basic piece of information, it must require a special kind of stupidity to be unable to distinguish betwen cattle, sheep and pics,) and the fact that the disease spread more easily between some species than others.

The report stated: “The mathematical models were, at best, crude estimations that could not differentiate risk between farms and, at worst, inaccurate representations of the epidemiology of FMD.”

It also described a febrile atmosphere – reminiscent of the fear and panic whipped up by attention seeking “experts,” celebrities and the mainstream media in recent week – and suggested that this hysteria allowed mathematical modellers to shape government policy.

“The general impatience that met the wait for the full extent of infections to become apparent, accompanied by an ever increasing number of outbreaks and piles of carcasses awaiting disposal, was perceived as a lack of success of the traditional control measures and provided the opportunity for self-styled ‘experts’, including some veterinarians, biologists and mathematicians, to publicise unproven novel options,” the researchers said.

As the lead scientist behind that disputed advice that led to Tony Blair’s government ordering the mass culling of farm livestock during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, a crisis which cost the country billions of pounds was none other than Ferguson who based his conclusion on the output from – you guessed it – mathematical models of a cow and a bacterium, it is absolutely unacceptable that this man’s advice is being allowed to influence government.

And before that it was he who predicted that up to 150,000 people could die from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or ‘mad cow disease’) and its equivalent in sheep if it made the leap to humans. The BSE panic is long forgotten but BSE is still around and still no cure has been developed, yet to date there have been fewer than 200 deaths caused by the human form of BSE and none resulting from sheep to human transmission.

Ferguson’s foot and mouth disease research has attracted strong criticism in scientific journals and therefore cannot be said to have passed the acid test of scientific research, peer review. It has also been the subject of critical academic papers which identified allegedly unsupportable assumptions being made by Ferguson in creating the algorithms and defining the data for his mathematical modelling.

When challenged, he robustly defended his work, saying that he had worked with limited data and limited time so the models weren’t 100 per cent right – but that the conclusions it reached were valid. but as every old computer pro like myself knows, conclusions based on incomplete data may be valid in the circumstances but are meaninless. Mathematical models can only be relied on if they are fed all the relevant data, if guesses are made to fill in the gaps then the law of GIGO kicks in, “Garbage In, Garbage Out”.

Professor Michael Thrusfield, of the veterinary epidemiology faculty at Edinburgh University, who co-authored both of the critical reports, said the papers were intended to serve asas a “cautionary tale” about the dangers of using mathematical models to predict the spread of disease when there are unknown factors that can probably never be known.

He spoke of experiencing a sense of “déjà vu” when he read Mr Ferguson’s Imperial College paper on coronavirus, which was published earlier this month.

That paper – Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand – warned that if no action were taken to control the coronavirus, around 510,000 people in Britain would lose their lives.

Naive belief in the infallibility of mathematics has not only led to disastrous responses to outbreaks of disease of course, which is why many people of a naturally sceptical mindset have questioned the way modern academics conflate science and mathematics. Science and mathematics are not the same thing, in fact mathematics is not even a science, although we were al taught at school that is is. Mathematics is, in the truest sense of the word, an art: that is a contractions of artifice, which is a statement guaranteed to have some maths and science fanboys screaming in outrage. The true meaning of artifice however is not something false or dodgy, but something created by humans, something not of nature. And no matter what fanboys (and girls,) might try to tell you, nature does not do equations.

As I have said many time, computes are not infallible, they are only as good as the person who programs them. And there is no such thing as Artificial Intellegence, as Professor Ferguson’s wild adventures in mathematical modelling sem to show very clearly.

The Black-Scholes equation was the mathematical justification for the irresponsible trading in financial markets that plunged the world’s banks into meltdown a few years ago. The brainchild of economists Fischer Black and Myron Scholes, the equation provided a rational way (they believed,) to price a financial contract when it still had time to run. It was like buying or selling a bet on a horse, halfway through the race. It opened up a new world of ever more complex investments, blossoming into a gigantic global industry. But when the sub-prime mortgage market turned sour, the darling of the financial markets became the Black Hole equation, sucking money out of the universe in an unending stream. It was the Black-Scholes equation that opened up the world of derivatives.

The equation itself wasn’t the real problem. It was useful, it was precise, and its limitations were clearly stated. Derivatives could be traded before they matured. The formula was fine if you used it sensibly and abandoned it when market conditions weren’t appropriate. The trouble was its potential for abuse. Unfortunately a fatal flaw was that it allowed derivatives to become commodities that could be traded in their own right. The financial sector called it the Midas Formula and saw it as a recipe for making everything turn to gold. But the markets forgot how the story of King Midas ended.

The world’s banks lost hundreds of billions when the sub-prime mortgage bubble burst leaving thouse who had bought consolidated debt obligations in the belief that property prices would keep goping up forever. In the ensuing panic, taxpayers were forced to pick up the bill, but that was politics, not mathematical economics.

Likewise with Neil Ferguson’s mathematical models of diseases, in order to prevent a disaster which the professors mathematical models say is inevitable, politicians are being persuaded to courses of action that really will destroy national economies on the basis of a largely fictional (if not fantastic,) course of events. We must return to sanity now. Far more people are likely to die in a global recession than are ever going to be killed by coronavirus.


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