First of all sad but not unexpected news this week that blog.co.uk is to close. We will be able to export our blogs to wordpress apparently but whether all the links well transfer and the SEO fuel be passed on we cannot yet know.
Meanwhile, life and the greek economic crisis go on. In what might be an attempt to turn a crisis into a Greek drama, one of the country’s oldest surviving newspapers I Kathimerini has predicted the latest developments will drive the country to civil war.
It has been a painful six months six painful for Greece, with round after round of bitter argument between Greek politicians (Yannis varoufakis notably) and its creditors producing all sorts of speculation about what a “Grexit” would actually entail but no workable solution.
With no historical precendent, planning a member state’s exit from the currency bloc has proved a virtually impossible task, but the collective efforts of the marketsd, mainstream media, political opportunists, and fuckwit economists has managed to produce a veritable dogs dinner of diagrams, decision trees, flowcharts, schematics, statistics, spells and charms in a futile attempt to map the complex interplay of politics, economics, and financial considerations that would follow if Athens decided to finally break off its ill-fated relationship with Brussels.
And it wasnt just people with an interest drawing up Grexit plans. The game was joined by David Cameron, Francois Hollande, Piers Morgan, John Bishop, Beppe Grillo, King salaman, old Barack Obama and all and all, old Uncle Tom Cobleigh and all.
EU officials denied the existence of a Plan B right up until German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeubles swift time-out alternative was leaked last weekend, no one outside of polite eurocrat circles pretends that a Greek exit wasnt contemplated all along. Yanis Varoufakis insists that Athens was threatened with capital controls as early as February if it did not acquiesce to creditor demands.
Now in the most shocking revelation yet about what EU officials really thought may happen in the event Greece crashed out of the EMU and unceremoniously reintroduced the drachma, highly repected newspaper Kathimerini has published a description of what the leader writer calls the “Grexit Black Book,” which purportedly contained the suggestion that civil war would breakout in Greece in the event the country was forced out of the currency bloc.
Heres more (via Google translate)You’ll see what I mean about Greek drama:
” On the 13th floor of the building Verlaymont in Brussels, a few meters from the office of the European Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, stored in a special security room and in a safe Greece’s exit plan from the Eurozone. There, in a multi-page volume, written in less than a month from 15-member team of the European Commission, answered questions on how to tackle such an outflow, including, as shocking as it may sound, even the possibility of the country out of the Treaty Schengen, and not only being driven outside the euro, but also outside the EU
According to European official, in that the European Commission Summit already had a bound volume, a multi-page document, which described the Greek prime minister, before the start of the session, by the same Mr. Juncker with all the details of a Grexit , giving him to understand the legal and political context of such a decision. In multipage document in accordance with European official who has the ability to know its contents, there are detailed answers to 200 questions that would arise in case Grexit.
These questions, as he explains official, are interrelated, as an exit from the euro would create a cascade of events, which would evolve in a relatively short time. From the drachmopoiisi economy to foreign exchange controls that would take place at the country’s borders and which will ultimately lead at the exit of Greece from the Schengen Treaty.
The authors of the draft, according to European official, conducted under conditions of absolute secrecy. A special group of 15 people of the European Commission, by direct contact with Greece started to prepare, and was also in direct contact with a number of senior officials and DGs in the European Commission who had expertise in specific areas. The writing of the project started when the expiry date of the program (end of June) was approaching, so it is the Commission prepared for every eventuality, and by the time the referendum was announced, Friday, June 26, the relevant procedures were accelerated. The weekend of the work referendum intensified, so now two days later, Tuesday of that Synod, the project has been finalized.
According to well-informed source, involved in creating the plan worked “suffer the pain” as typically describe the “K” and “overwhelmed” because they could not believe that things had reached this point, and most of them had direct involvement with the Greek rescue programs. The European Commission also was hoped that even until the last minute solution would be found as members of this group knew better than anyone the consequences exit of Greece from the Eurozone and understand the cost of such a decision. One of those involved with direct knowledge of Greek reality in the critical phase of the training, he said the rest of the group that “if implemented this plan, the streets of Athens will sound tracks of tanks.”
It’s not entirely clear what is meant by “will sound the tracks of tanks,” but perhaps google translate which is good but far from perfect, has obfuscated the sense of what the Greek text was saying. We must assume the suggestion is not that the EU and its constituent member states would somehow seek to orchestrate a military takeover of the Greek state in the event Athens makes the ‘wrong’ decision about EMU membership (although with help from the USA, that’s exactly what they did in Ukraine).
A more resonable interpretation based on the information presented by Kathimerini seems to be that Brussels was of the opinion that the referendum results together with the divergent rhetoric emanating from Greek politicians on the far-right and far-left betrayed the degree to which the Greek people were divided on the issue of austerity. Although Tsipras’ concessions will have far-reaching consequences for national politics and Greek society, it looks as though Brussels feared that the economic malaise that would have resulted from a Greek departure from the single currency and return to the drachma might have triggered a level of civil unrest that would ultimately have to be brought under control by the Greek army. We can only wait and see.