Determining the true fatality rate of Covid-19 vital, says another scientist with an infallible mathematical model

The Covid-19 pandemic has, at its heart, a very simple dynamic which can be captured by the fundamental SIR model, known as a powerful tool for dissecting the spread of diseases which have short (I)nfectious periods and where (R)ecovery renders an individual unavailable for infection says Sunetra Gupta, a theoretical epidemiologist, going on to explain that all members of a population can be designated I, infectious and R, recovered, with the remainder being left in the (S)usceptible bin; hence S⇒I⇒R.  (You may notice the fundamental flaw in this modelling method is it ignores the great unknown, immune: those with natural immunity, a very significant percentage according to empirical  (real life) data

The behaviour of these SIR systems, which are at the heart of all mathematical models purporting to predict the progress of disease epidemics, is in theory determined by two factors: how long an individual is infectious, and the fundamental transmission potential of the pathogen. Both, it is claimed, can be estimated at a fairly early stage of the epidemic, and there is broad agreement across the scientific community on these numbers. Unfortunately the complete failure of the mathematical models in UK, Europe, USA and Canada demonstrate that broad agreement across the scientific community is wothless. What matters is what happens in real life.

The objective of mathematical models of an epidemic is to predict the Infection Fatality Rate or IFR. Two extreme scenarios (and everything in between) fit the available data which as shown above is so incomplete as to be useless. In the one used by the Imperial College modellers, the fatality rate is in the benchmark of 1pc which would imply that the epidemic took off towards the end of February in the UK, and less than 10pc of the population had been exposed by time of lockdown.

In the other, the fatality rate could be as low as 0.01pc; this would require the virus to have been introduced about a month earlier and for over 50pc of individuals to be exposed by March 23.

These figures for the number of people exposed to the virius but not affected by it can only ever be pure guesswork of course. Most modellers have “fitted” their model to the , in plain English again, adjusted the algorithms to produce the answer whoever is funding the research requires from thevery limited data available on cases and deaths as reported. If fact one model used to formulate advice given to the UK government was, we are given to understan, from the Diamond Princess Cruise Liner. This corresponds to running a model of a national community based on a large number of people confined within a limited space which guarantees thel SIR model will produce an artificially high  a high fatality rate – or present governments with the worst case scenario on which to formulate policies.

But how plausible is a fatality rate of 1pc? First we must remind ourselves

The author is a “a professor of theoretical epidemiology”, in plain English another academic highly qualified in the science of making things up. How much money could we save as a nation if we just stoppeed funding these parasites and the universities that employ them. So what we are prsented with is another theoretical “scientist” who likes playing around with computers and statistics despite being spectacularly unqualified to do so. More garbage in in – garbage out conclusions.

A notable feature of this crisis has been the tendency of authority to obscure the figures to suit their purposes, both here and in the US. If the university brainwashed half – wits in government want to calculatethe likely death rate from COVID – 19 and the total all cause deasths related to the pandeimic, let them find and disclose the number of people who have died as a result of the first closure of the NHS in its history. It is likely to show that more have died of the response to the “crisis” or from causes not related to COVID – 19 after having been expose to this similar to seasonal ‘flu but not as bad Coronavirus variant.

Then we should take Novartis’s upper estimate for annual flu deaths of 22,000 and then add the above figure to that, and subtract that total from the total “excess deaths” figure to find the casualty figure for which the whole country of sixty seven million has been assaulted by idiots fooled by criminals. in the UK, the virus had two or three months to spread in the population before lockdown. And yet it managed to kill only 238 healthy people under 60 in England. For context 68,000 people died in 2018 anyway. That does not suggest that this is a particularly deadly disease for healthy people up to 60, and perhaps even for healthy people beyond that age.

Critics Batter The Fake Science Used To Justify The LockdownAs Boris Waffles

Prof Neil Ferguson : pointy – headed science (Image: http://www.blazingcatfur.ca )

Regular readers may recall this blog was among the first to expose the fact that the pandemic model predicting 500,000 COVID – 19 deaths if the entire nation was not placed under indefinite house arrest was based on a deeply flawed mathematical model of the pandemic built by a “scientist” at Imperial College, London, a college heavily reliant on funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation. You may also recall we have reported on  the determination of psychopathic megalomaniac Gates to insert himself into this phoney crisis with a plan worthy of Dr. Evil himself, to implant an RFID chip in everybody so our movements can be tracked and we can be arrested if we have any contact with unchipped people. OK, I might be exaggerating for dramatic effect there, but only a tiny bit.

Ironically the Neil Ferguson, the Professor whose prediction was used by Prime Minister Boris Johnson to justify Britain’s seemingly endless lockdown is now known to bebased on such  badly designed software that it is ‘somewhere between negligence and grave scientific misconduct’, a real computer expert has warned. Ferguson has a long track record for using similarly flawed mathematical models to produce highly dramatic but unscientific perdictions as is described in the above link.

Virologist and clinical computational epidemiologist Chris Von Csefalvay is  just the latest of many expert to scrutinise Ferguson’s influential Imperial College study – the one that predicted more than 500,000 deaths in the UK alone from the Chinese coronavirus pandemic, and find similarly sloppy programming methods to those which predicted the swine flu “pandemic” of 2009, the Ebola outbreak of 2014 and several other similar non – events would result in humanitarian catastrophes. Ferguson was also responsible for advising Tony Blair’s government in 2001 that millions of animals on farms where no infection had been discovered was necessary to  avert the spread of foot and mouth disease from cloven hoofed animals to other species including humans.

And it was Ferguson who predicted 150,000 deaths from Mad Cow Disease (Bovine Spongeform Encephalitis, in fact only around 200 have died of that particular existential threat to humanity since 1991.

Von Csefalvay was as profoundly unimpressed with Ferguson’s modelling methods as the rest of us were by the news that the cuntstruck COVID Czar had advised the lockdown so his married lover would not be delayed by traffic when she drove down to visit him for rumpy pumpy. In a  Review of The Imperial College research on his website Bits and Bugs, he notes that while initial supportive of Ferguson and his modelling, having seen the coding for the model which he says ‘raises some extremely serious questions,’ he is now of the opinion that the model is not worse than useless, it is even worse than that, having been built to guarantee a false result. The coding quality, he says, is poor:

First of all, the elephant in the room: code quality. It is very difficult to look at the Ferguson code with any understanding of software engineering and conclude that this is good, or even tolerable

Yet that shoddy research and the outrageously hyperbolic result it produced has been gulped down hook line and sinker by scientifically naive and gullible politicians who tend to fall to their knees in an attitude of worship when someone who claims to be “a scientist” offers them advice.  Someone like Boris Johnsin in particular, but also his old Etonian cronies and even Sir Kier Starmer, an alumini  of the expensive Reigate Grammar School for pos kids from rich families, who all receibed education based on the Renaissance model which teaches us to question everything and always think for ourselves, should have known better than treat it with such credulousness. Von Csefalvay has obviously retained the scepticism instilled by his education, he writes:

Yet for some reason, the UK government treated Ferguson’s model as almost dogmatic truth. This highlights an important issue: politicians have not been taught enough about data-driven decision-making, especially not where predictive data is involved. There is wide support for a science-driven response to COVID-19, but very little scrutiny of the science behind many of the predictions that informed early public health measures. Hopefully, a Royal Commission with subpoena powers will have the opportunity to review in detail whether Ferguson intentionally hid the model from HM Government the way he hid it from the rest of the world or whether the government’s experts just did not understand how to scrutinise or assess a model – or, the worst case scenario: they saw the model and still let it inform what might have been the greatest single decision HM Government has made since 1939, without looking for alternatives (there are many other modelling approaches, and many developers who have written better code)

He concludes that it will result in:

…a massive leap backwards, erosion of trust and a complete disclaimer of accountability by publicly funded scientists.

Von Csefalvay is not the only well qualified epidemiologist to give vent to his  disgust at Ferguson’s ineptitude.

Another review, by Craig Pirrong, Professor of Finance and Energy Markets Director of the Global Energy Management Institute at the Bauer College of Business, University of Houston, concludes:

“Models only become science when tested against data/experiment. By that standard, the Imperial College model failed spectacularly.”

Going back decades, Ferguson’s track record had been widely criticised (sic), as reported:

Delingpole: Ferguson’s Dodgy Model Has Engendered a World-Historical Blunder

Despite all this, Boris Johnson and his Cabinet colleagues continue to cite Ferguson’s discredited study as if it were the gold standard of scientific research.

Boris even mentioned it in his speech on Sunday night when, attempting to justify the continuation of the lockdown, he claimed:

It is a fact that by adopting those measures we prevented this country from being engulfed by what could have been a catastrophe in which the reasonable worst-case scenario was half a million fatalities.

Interesting use of the word ‘fact’ in that sentence, showing that Boris is illing to accept the word of a “scientist” about what constitutes a fact because “scientists,” like medieval popes are infallible; a folly which, were there a credible opposition with a charismatic leader, would see the government struggling even with its massive majority.

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Scientist who convinced Boris lockdown was the only way to beat coronavirus criticised many times for flawed research

The scientist whose mathematical models of how the coronavirus would spread in the UK and the wildly exaggerated estimates of how many deaths might result from the epidemic reportedly led to the decision to implement a countrywide lockdown and trash the economy has been criticised in the past for flawed research.

Has The World Health Organisation Been Helping Chinese Coronavirus Cover Up
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Coronavirus deaths: Are The Authorities Deceiving Us?Yesterday we reported that a Canadian outfit had carried out an analysis of China’s response to Coronavirus and concluded that while politicians and academics (aka “scientists” or “experts”) are heaping praise on the way the regime in Beijing has contained and controlled its epidemic, the Chinese have actually been lying, the epidemc is still raging and numbers of infections and deaths from COVID – 19 are far higher than reported,

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As We Predicted The Coronavirus bill Is The Biggest Assault On Freedom Since World War 2
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Germany’s Official State TV Channel Cheers Coronavirus For Killing Old People
Trawling around the weirder fringes of the web, as we bloggers and cyberjournalists are sometimes obliged to if we want to bring you the news the mainstream will not report, one occasionally comes across something important but disturbing – like being brought face – to – face with how sick and warped the far left ecopsychos really are. Take a sketch recently broadcast as part of a satirical show the title of which translates as Bohemian Browser Ballet, shown by German state broadcaster ARD.

UK To Ask Citizens Over 70 To Self – Isolatate For 4 MONTHS As Coronavirus Fails To Kill Zillions
UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock today confirmed the government plans to ask people aged over 70 to isolate themselves for up to four months amid a coronavirus pandemic. The goal is to protect them.
It’s quite obvious to us, experienced bloggers that we are, that the government, civil service, law encorgement and national security agencies and all the assorted experts and talking heads have forgotten the lesson our generation learned from The Hitch Hiker’s Guide To The Galaxy …

Coronavirus: EU States Rebel Against Brussels As Van Leyen Demands Borders Stay Open

The cracks in European solidarity are growing deeper by the day as the coronavirus crisis threatens to split the bloc. The response of European leaders has varied from panic, as several member-states have takeen unilateral action including severe border closures, to a laissez – fair attidude, notably from France’s idiot president Emmanuel Macron who favours total inaction, having said complacently that viruses don’t recognise borders.

US John Hopkins University Prof Says Don’t Believe Corona Virus Numbers
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Is the World Health Organization involved in biological warfare research?
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Coronavirus Contains “HIV Insertions”: Claim Stokes Fears Over Genetically Modified BioweaponFor the past two weeks mainstream media reporting of the epidemic of a new strain of coronavirus in China has been getting more and more hysterical. However, reports have pushed back against one “conspiracy theory” about the origins of the virus that has now infected as many as 70,000+ people in the central China city of Wuhan alone (depending on whom you believe).

Corona Virus: Should We Worry
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Coronavirus Contains “HIV Insertions”: Claim Stokes Fears Over Genetically Modified Bioweapon
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Recommended real news: Back to business as usual on COVID – 19 (8 April 2020)

COVID-19 Computer Models Continue To Deteriorate

Wikimedia Commons, Tomasz Sieniki

Posted By: Edwin Mora on Technocracy News April 7, 2020

Reminiscent of erroneous global warming computer models, those created by overzealous Technocrats for COVID-19 have proven to be just as bad, but because they are ‘scientists’, they will not be held accountable for their folly. ⁃ TN Editor

The number of people hospitalized across the United States as a result of the novel coronavirus illness (COVID-19) is reportedly only a fraction of what some health experts using Artificial Intelligence technology projected a few days ago.

On Monday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told reporters that in his state alone, the epicenter of the viral outbreak in the United States, new coronavirus hospitalizations dropped by about 75 percent, from 1,427 four days ago to 358 on Sunday.

Highlighting the drop in new hospitalizations in NY, the state hardest hit (131,239 cases; 4,758 deaths as of Monday) by the coronavirus, Alex Berenson, former New York Times reporter who has been following the U.S. outbreak closely, observed on Twitter on Monday: “It’s over, guys. It’s already over.”

Jim Malatras, an aide for Gov. Cuomo, reportedly indicated that projections are now showing that New York is unlikely to need 110,000 hospital beds, as previously thought.

The new forecasts show “a much lower demand” that stands in the estimated 20,000-30,000 range, Jesse McKinley, the New York Times bureau chief in the NY capital of Albany, wrote on Twitter on Monday.

That means the new projections for the number of hospital beds needed in NY are between about 70 and 80 percent lower than initially estimated … Contunue reading

MORE FROM OUR SITES ON:
Failings of Artificial Intelligence
Fear and Panic pandemic

 

Covid19 Death Figures “A Substantial Over-Estimate”

by Kit Knightly for Off – Guardian

A few weeks ago we reported that, according to the Italian Institute of Health (ISS), only 12% of Italy’s reported Covid19 deaths actually listed Covid19 as the cause of death.

Given that 99% of them had at least one serious co-morbidity (and that 80% of them had two such diseases) this raised serious questions as to the reliability of Italy’s reported statistics.

Prof Walter Ricciardi, advisor to Italy’s health minister, explained this was caused by the “generous” way the Italian government handles death certificates:
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.”

Essentially, Italy’s death registration process does not differentiate between those who simply have the virus in their body, and those who are actually killed by it.

Given the amount of fear and panic Italy’s comparatively alarming numbers caused around the world, you would think other nations would be eager to avoid these same mistakes. Surely all the other countries of the world are employing rigorous standards for delineating who has, and has not, fallen victim to the pandemic, right?

Wrong …>>>

Coronavirus deaths: Are The Authorities Deceiving Us?

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Covid-19 drags French economy into deep recession the likes of which it has not seen since 1945

© Reuters / Gonzalo Fuentes

MOREMORE

from Reuters Paris

The Bank of France said on Wednesday that the country’s economy shrank around six percent in the first quarter of this year, its worst performance since the end of WWII.

According to official figures, the economy dropped 0.1 percent in the last three months of 2019 as the coronavirus pandemic decimated business activity. With two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the country is now technically in recession.

Economic activity plunged 32 percent in the last two weeks of March as the crisis deepened, said the French regulator. It has listed construction, transport, restaurants and lodging among the worst affected sectors of the economy … Continue reading >>>

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Oil Prices Tumble As Russia Balks At Proposed US Production Cut

from Zero Hedge

As oil traders look with dread and fear to tomorrow’s OPEC+ teleconference one day after crude oil tumbled amid speculation that the production cut standoff will not be resolved there was a sliver of hope that oil prices may rebound after Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia, Russia and allied oil producers will agree to deep cuts to their crude output at talks this week but only if the United States and several others join in with curbs to help prop up prices that have been hammered by the coronavirus crisis.

However, in an attempt to have its cake and eat it too, the U.S. DOE said on Tuesday that U.S. output is already falling without government action, in line with the White House’s insistence that it would not intervene in the private markets. And as reported on Tuesday morning, super-major Exxon announced that it would slash capex by up to 30%, which would impact output by several hundred thousands barrels per day… but only in 2021 and onward. In other words, any organic decline would take place slowly, over the course of the next two years.

“With regards to media reports that OPEC+ will require the United States to make cuts in order to come to an agreement: The EIA report today demonstrates that there are already projected cuts of 2 (million bpd), without any intervention from the federal government,” the U.S. Energy Department said … Continue reading >>>

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Kissinger says ‘even US’ can’t defeat Covid-19 alone. His solution? Global NWO government, of course

by Helen Buyniski for RT, 8 April, 2020

Henry Kissinger, eminence grise of imperial US foreign policy, has warned in an op-ed that no government – even his beloved hegemon – can defeat Covid-19 alone, implying that the New World Order he’s always preached must follow.

If the US doesn’t couple its efforts to rebuild its own economy with the first steps toward creating a global government, humanity is doomed, Kissinger wrote in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed.

Kissinger laments that the pandemic has led to the return of a “walled city” model of nationalist governance, suggesting that “exploration at the frontiers of science” alone can save humanity from disease in his vision of a globalist utopia. But developing cures takes time, and the notion that countries should be discouraged from protecting themselves in the interim is suicidal. If anything, one of the reasons Italy, Spain, and France were hit so hard by coronavirus was the EU’s dysfunctional insistence on open borders amid the pandemic.

“Global trade and movement of people” are all well and good, but the pandemic has exposed the weaknesses of the globalist system like never before. It will take years for nations to rebuild, and repeating their mistakes is not something they can afford to do … Continue reading >>>

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Is Hatred Of Greta Thunberg Justified?

Greta Thunberg and her cartoon twin Pippi Longstocking

As the backlash against the Greta Thunberg cult gathers momentum a lot of lefties are asking why the little Climate Warriorette is so hated by so many people. As usual with the left, they are asking the wrong question. Just as they asked, “Why can’t you believe the scientists, they spend their lives studying climate, they know what they are talking about, why can’t you just accept the science is settled?” when in fact not only is it always legitimate (and scientific,) to question and challenge scientific theory, so it is perfectly rational and logical to challenge the Cult of Saint Greta.

“The science” on climate change was never settled of course, in fact a lot of it was very dodgy, being based on output from mathematical models run on computers managed by people with a career investment in persuading people to believe the catastrophes forecast by these computer models, which were fed adjusted data rather than information from observations of the real world.

This goes a long away towards explaining why none of the dire predictions of catastrophic natural disasters predicted by Warmageddonists over the past twenty five years has come true. It is 2020, snow is falling in Scotland and Northern England, in the USA, Canada, Germany, France, Scandinavia, yet climate sciencetits (not a typo,) told us with great certainty that snow would be a thing of the past by 2010. Likewise they told us rapidly rising sea levels caused by the melting of the ice caps would submerge low lying nations like The Maldives by 2010. Earlier this week my brother booked his annual post Christmas holiday in The Maldives. He’s pretty certain it will still be there, because he went to the same resort last year and found it above water.

And yet, despite all the demonstrable evidence to the contrary, Warmageddonists still insist we must accept that “the science” is correct because sciencetits (not a typo,) are very clever and they say the science is settled.

The Greta Thunberg thing took off, I believe, because the Warmageddonist movement had lost so much credibility, they were desperate to prevent the wheels coming off their globalist bandwagon. And so they resorted to the dirtiest of tactics. Now that is backfiring too.

I don’t think it is hatred of Little Saint Greta that drives the criticism so much as that people dislike and are angered by the way the girl’s handlers are manipulating her to be the poster child for a campaign based on a particularly nasty kind of emotional blackmail. It is the same kind of blackmail as was used at the height of the European Union’s when pictures of a drowned child lying on a beach somewhere in the Greek Islands was accompanied by screaming headlines in mainstream media about how heartless Europeans were in not welcoming anyone who wanted to come from a third world country to “seek a better life” (a very emotive phrase,) in Europe.

It turned out the boy was not from a migrant family at all, but had been taken along for the ride by his father who was in the human trafficking business and drowned when the overloaded inflatable boat sank on the crossing from Turkey to Greece with a cargo of people who had paid exorbitant fees to be smuggled into the EU illegally.

I believe Greta Thunberg has just turned 17 so I started commenting on her activities when she was sixteen and one of the things I remarked on was that she was like no sixteen year old Swedish girl I encountered when working in that country a few years ago. They are mostly stylish, fashion conscious and desperate to give the impression they are older than their years. Greta Thunberg looked and dressed as a ten or eleven year old would, i.e. as a child. And she conjured childish tears when talking about her childhood being stolen. It was all carefully stage managed to play on the emotions of adults. I actually referred to her as a wannabe Pippi Longstocking, a reference to the children’s fiction character created by Astrid Lindgren (https://www.astridlindgren.com/en/characters/pippi-longstocking) in the 1940s, a little girl with special powers.

If Greta’s childhood has been stolen it is not by climate change, but by the people who are using (or abusing perhaps,) her to advance a political agenda.

So my view, shared by many other people around the web, is criticisms of Greta Thunberg are not motivated so much by anger at her, the socially inept teenager with learning difficulties and Asperger’s syndrome, as anger at the fictional character created by those who are managing her campaign and putting words in her mouth. People are more likely to feel sympathy for her.

Beyond that, there is a growing stack of evidence that the “science” behind the climate change scare is fraudulent, and the fact that United Nations climate experts have confessed that they look at output from mathematical models when formulating their long term forecasts rather than giving priority to real world evidence.

All of this damages the credibility of the case for destroying industrial civilization as does the focus of Ms Thunberg and other activists on demanding that the liberal democracies bear the full burden of reducing CO2 emissions while China (https://originalboggartblog.wordpress.com/2019/11/21/clean-green-power-sucks-china-goes-all-out-for-coal/), India, Brazil, Philippines, Nigeria and other developing nations continue to develop their industrial base without regard for the environmental effects of their economic expansion. The link in this paragraph leads to a page which exposes how many new coal powered generating plants are under construction or planned right now in China, it is more than in the whole of Europe. India is following the same path.

Finally, “the masses” as left wing intellectuals contemptuously refer to us ordinary people who work hard for decent living, do not like being treated as if we are stupid or told what we must think and how we must behave. In a democratic society we have a right to question “the science” of climate change, and when questioned it does not stand up to logical analysis. So Greta Thunberg’s handlers who send her across the Atlantic in a specially built carbon fibre yacht (check out how CO2 intensive the manufacturing process for carbon fibre is,) and the other elitists who fly halfway round the world in their private jets for a lunch meeting (Yes Leonardo DefuckingCaprio, I’m talking about you,) are hardly going the right way about winning the battle for hearts and minds are they? Personally I feel no hatred to Greta (just don’t get me started on Leonardo DefuckingCaprio,) but think the people who turned her into a social media phenomenon should be exposed for the abusive opportunistic charlatans they are.

RELATED POSTS:

Is Hatred Of Greta Thunberg Justified?
As the backlash against the Greta Thunberg cult gathers momentum a lot of lefties are asking why the little Climate Warriorette is so hated by so many people. As usual with the left, they are asking the wrong question. Just as they asked, “Why can’t you believe the scientists, when in fact not only is it always legitimate (and scientific,) to question and challenge scientific theory, so it is perfectly rational and logical to challenge the Cult of Saint Greta ….

Climate change hoax COLLAPSES as new science finds human activity has virtually zero impact on global temperaturesWe have previously highlighted this report from Finland which exposes the great flaw in “the science” of global warming. The link at the end of this extract takes you to a much more complete account of the research project which, not for the first time debunks the fake science on which the politically – motivate climate change scare.

Fellow Slams The Royal Society as Nothing But a Lobby Group for Climate Change.

Another respected scientist comes out and denounces the science behind the climate change scare as a fraud. The whole thing has been a scam to justify punitive taxes on fuel and enable the rich to make fortunes trading carbon credits. Again it shows what a sack of rogues the climate science community really are.

Clean Green Power Sucks – China Goes All Out For Coal

The lying leftie paskudnyaks clean, green, save the planet machine and the worshippers of Greta Thunberg tell us that China is the world’s biggest investor in sustainable energy and has more wind turnbines installed than any other nation. It is the worst kind of lie because it is true, but only tells half the story. And sometimes being told half the story creates completely the wrong impression …

Paris Climate conference: Scientists Debunk Global Warming Scaremongering

As national leaders and self interested science whore collaborated to impose of the world a United Nations “climate regime” based on the vile and authoritarian Agenda 21 agreement, at the COP21 global-warming summit, a group of internationally respected scientists and environmentalists from various fields presented research at a separate conference in Paris that ridiculed the climate change hysteria.

Fellow Slams The Royal Society as Nothing But a Lobby Group for Climate Change.

Another respected scientist comes out and denounces the science behind the climate change scare as a fraud. The whole thing has been a scam to justify punitive taxes on fuel and enable the rich to make fortunes trading carbon credits. Again it shows what a sack of rogues the climate science community really are.

Another Kick In The Bollocks For Warmageddonists And CAGWARTS*

I’ve had many arguments with the Warmageddonists, the people who have been saying that if we did not shut down all coal, oil and gas related activites the earth was going to turn into a giant furnace and we would all burn. When the scaremongering first started, the deadline for frying was “after dinner”. Then it got to “Tomorrow …… or the day after tomorrow perhaps,” then “next year”, “before 2050,” and eventually “soon.”

What if man-made climate change is all in the mind?

If our view of reality is shaped by the mind and our perceptions of information, how successful are attempts to manipulate the perceptions of the whole populations through manipulated data, spin and assertions of authority likely to be. As scientists and politicians moan that the public no longer take sertiously climate change scare stories, we have to conclude, not very.

 

And The Answer Was ………

The big technology news last week was Google’s announcement that in a joint computing project with University of California, Santa Barbara the team has achieved quantum supremacy!
In a collaborative exercise the @Google and UC Santa Barbara, quantum computer Sycamore completed a calculation in 3 min 20 sec that would take about 10,000 years for a classical comp.

I can’t help wondering if the answer it came up with was “42”.

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So Turing Got It Wrong?

I encounter many articles from sources between eager geeks, silicon valley billionaire pasychopaths and highly qualified academics on topics related to artificial intelligence, neural networks and deep learning. But as they witter on about algorithms, big data and ever more powerful computers they do not seem to grasp  there is more to human conscious intelligence which we are nowhere near to understanding but which must be understood if we are to to model human intuition.

The Turing Test, developed in the 1950s by computer pioneer Alan Turing was intended to discriminate between humans and machines by asking  certain questions of a machine or a human and observing answers which a human is expected to give and that would be impossible for a machine to answer. We can consider this emotional intelligence as an area the machine would not be able to understand.

The only machine yet claimed to have passed the test was presented to judges as a 12 year old Ukrainian boy who had not been learning English for very long. Nothing like cheating to get the result you want is there? Machine learning models can learn some probabilistic parameters to come up with an output representations but cannot understand the emotions or expression or feelings behind a statement.

There is more than just probability estimation in human intelligence. A more relevant question is how can we model consciousness? If we could model consciousness,we could then have an understanding whether an individual is experiencing an emotion and that it will reflect in the way it is giving out those answers.

So the ultimate question is “How do we model Consciousness?”

That’s is the great question all the people who post on A I, neural networks, deep learning and the rest should be able to answer, but cannot.

We have no idea how human consciousness evolved, what triggered that leap from the mammal mind (some would say the mammal brain, because the mind is the home of that mystery which makes us human.) Both evolutionists and religionists agree there is “something” about humankind that separates us from even the large brained animals, but nobody can explain what a human mind actually is.

Some years ago I had an extended stay in hospital after a catastrophic brain haemorrhage. It took out about 35% of my brain tissue and the initial prognosis was there would be little left of what made me who I am. Amazingly my memory, together with language and cognitive skills survived almost intact (I was paralyzed on one side but I was still me.) Nobody was offering explanations though I asked many times, wanting to understand what had happened to me, until some months later, while talking to an endocrinologist who was investigating the blood disorder that had led my blood pressure to spike, and he said, “We are only just beginning to understand that the brain and the mind are two very different things.”

What is the human mind? How does it relate to the brain? Dogs, Chimpanzees and Dolphins can be playful and can relate to members of other species, but they cannot handle abstract ideas. Why do we not see animals with minds? There are no physical characteristics of the human brain that suggest they provide thecreative and processing power that defines human thought and problem solving skills.

If we think of just a few of the qualities which make homo sapiens sapiens (literally ‘man who knows he knows’) unique among all living creatures we start to get an idea of the magnitude of task facing those who aspire to create human — like intelligence in a computer.

I have always said, “the only way we can hope to create true artificial intelligence is by radically redefining what we mean by intelligence.”

 

IoT gadget maker Nest Labs adding Google facial recognition to doorbell web enabled doorbell, Google will know who’s at home.

Image source: http://www.industriaitaliana.it

Long before Google acquired Internet of Things company Nest, its co-founder Matt Rogers was saying he and his team had big dreams. They certainly did, knowing perhaps how the CIA had made Google and Facebook into giant global corporations because of the potential for spying on people through their computers, Nest seem to have convinced themselves that building fridges, washing machines, thermostats and doorbells that could spy on their owners might work the same trick for them.

“When Nest was founded seven years ago, we started with a thermostat,” Rogers told a room full of reporters in an event held at San Francisco’s Contemporary Jewish Museum. “But our mission has always been much greater. Our mission is to create a home that takes care of the people inside it and the world around it.”

CUNT. Does he not realise plenty of us understand what he is really saying, i.e. Nest, with their partners want to build a world in which our homes, possessions and our environment all conspire with the ruling elites to control us.

So after making a smart thermostat, (well, one that grasses you up to big Brother if you turn your heating up higher than someone on your paygrade should,) smoke alarms that will tell your doctor is you were cooking unhealthy food, and security cameras that tell Google (and any of us that can hack a server, which is more people than you might think,) exactly who is at home at any given time, Nest revealed the next place it wants to make waves: the home alarm system.

“Can you think of a better industry for us to disrupt?” product marketing head Maximie Veron asked the crowd.

That disruption will be stepped up in November, when the latest spy product, a $500 home alarm system you can install yourself, is brought to market. Nest Secure is built to work with your smartphone (and if that doesn’t ring alarm bells nothing will,), and with all the other Nest products the company hopes you’ll buy to help your best friends, the government, control you. And some people, some university brainwashed people, will rush out and buy this crap thinking it is ‘cool’.

Nest Secure product manager Sophie Le Guen explained the focus was on making a confusing product into a friendly one. About as friendly as a hungry crocodile.

Is The Internet Making Us All Stupid.The more gullible and wide eyed among academics like to burble ecstatically about how the internet has ushered in a new age of creativity. We have to wonder just how much time these self styled experts have spent surfing scial networking sites

Total Control: New Measures Toward Global Totalitarianism
Total surveillance and total control, it was the system used by the fictional Big Brother regime in George Orwell’s 1984 and it is becoming dangerously close to becoming reality in the liberal democracies of the world. Not long ago I reported that Microsoft boss Bill Gates had invested in a startup that proposes to launch a network of surveillance satellites that will monitor the entire world twenty four hours a day, thus bringing another dystopian fiction, Skynet, closer to reality

Web Induced DementiaIn most civilised societies there are laws governing what outrageous claims advertisers can make for their products. This does not apply on the web it seems, where ‘revolutionary new world changing technology’ means ‘not fit for purpose’

Computer Cops Will Arrest You Before You Commit A Crime
Innocent until proved guilty has always been a basic principle of British and before the Union, English and Scottish justice. Since late in the ninth century when King Alfred signed into law the Liber Judicialis, the presumption of innocence has stood.Thinking of committing a crime was not punishable, only in George Orwell’s dystopian novel “1984” has Thought Crime ever been a punishable offence. Until now …

Bill Gates backs a $1 billion plan to cover Earth in ‘Big Brother’ satellites.
With the raggle taggle army of bloggers, alt_media journalists, video creators, marginalised writers and maverick media pundits who have taken on the task of defending liberty already engaged on several fronts, Microsoft’s multibillonaire chairman Bill Gates has announced his backing for a new tech start-up that will be able to stream ‘live and unfiltered’ video of every inch of the planet from a network of satellites to …

Is Technology Creating Physical and Psychological Hazards In The Digital Age?
Scientific research used to be the area of work that trailblazers, those with an unquenchable desire for new experience and a hyperactive sense of adventure wanted to be involved in. Now those who label themselves ‘scientists’ seem to have become the high priests of an ultra – conservative religion, determined at all costs to block progess that may lead to understanding that the dogmas of the past are just wrong

The Mummers: The Controlling system And The Illusion Of Freedom
We live in a world of deception, where truth is an ephemeral thing, slippery as an eel and shadowy as a spectre. What we are expercted to perceive as reality is just spin and misinformation designed to ensure the elite maintain their control. There’s eff all you can do just get on with your life, say the shills for big government and authoritarianism. But are we really nothing more than slaves of the system?

Google’s Brave New World Of Artificial Intelligence – And The Destruction Humanity
Almost every day we hear scientists burbling about artificial intelligence and how very soon machines will be smarter than humans. As scientists are nowhere near as smart as humans its hard to see how science can build something smarter. The problem is of course we don’t understand what contsitutes intelligence – those who think academic qualifications are the only indicator are retards. So where will this madness to replace us with machines end?

Transhumanism – What The Elite And Their Science Whores Have Planned For You
Transhumanism, the creation of – or turning us into – part human, part machine cyborgs is generating a lot of discussion and a lot of spontaneous ejaculations in the scientific community as they contemplate having their brains replaced by a computer. There are no limits on the ambitions of scientists fantasies, they even envisage creating robots that can interbreed with us, but how much is realistic?

Don’t be Evil, Google Will Do It For You
Google have abandoned their “Don’t Be Evil motto. Good thing really, they are becoming more evil every day. The latest plans to integrate our brains with their servers may seem like a science fiction freaks wet dream, but these creepy nerds are serious …

Google wants to change the way you see the world
News Used To Be Important – Now It’s Just EntertainmentPeople talk about technology, mainly television, cellulat telephones and the internet having given us an unprecedented ability to communicate. But have they? OK, we can trade meaningless messages with strangers on the other side of the world, we can join the cacophony of social netwoks where everybody yells at once and nobody listens, or we can sit in isolation, shouting inmto the void. But none of those are communicating. Technology has actually inhibited communication. …

Google Evil Empire In New Privacy ViolationOnce again the neo-Nazi nerds at Google are in trouble for playing fast and loose with our privacy. Google have bypassed browser privacy setting to track our movements on the web, the bettrer to target us with ads for poxy shite no sane person would buy. What is it these arseholes find difficult to understand about the idea that in the real world or cyberspace same rules apply …

Google Has Comptely Forgotten ‘Don’t Be Evil’ As The World Domination Agend Gathers PaceAt last Google has been caught stealing information from a business rival rather than private induviduals. Will people now wise up to these scumsucking pirates of the internet search engine world.

Science Brings Doomsday Closer – scientists announced we are nearer to a global catastrophe than we were a year ago

A Chronicle Of Decay

Global Ransomware Attack Exposes Folly Of Putting All Your Eggs In One Basket

UK broadcast news and online news sites have been dominated for most of the day by the cyber attack that has affected government and business computer systems. Most disturbing consequence of the attack, which hijacks computer screens with a message that files have been encrypted and can only be unlocked on payment of a large fee (a type of malware known as Ransomware) is fact that hospitals across the United Kingdom had gone dark , locking staff out of patient records and appointment systems..

The situation has got significantly worse as The BBC reports the ransomware attack has gone global.

Screenshots showing a message put out by a popular screen hijacker app show a program that locks computers and demands a payment in Bitcoin have been posted online by organisations hit by the attack.

It is not yet clear whether the attacks are all connected. One cyber-security consultant tweeted that he had detected 36,000 instances of the ransomware, called WannaCry and variants of that name.

“This is huge,” he said.

There have been reports of infections in the UK, US, China, Russia, Spain, Italy, Vietnam, Taiwan and others.

The BBB details a number of Spanish firms including some of the biggest businesses in spain were among the apparent victims elsewhere in Europe.

Telecoms giant Telefonica said in a statement that it was aware of a “cybersecurity incident” but that clients and services had not been affected.

Power firm Iberdrola and utility provider Gas Natural were also reported to have suffered from the outbreak.

There were reports that staff at the firms were told to turn off their computers.

In Italy, one user shared images appearing to show a university computer lab with machines locked by the same program.

The Blue Screen Of Death

Bitcoin wallets seemingly associated with the ransomware were reported to have already started filling up with cash.

“This is a major cyber attack, impacting organisations across Europe at a scale I’ve never seen before,” said security architect Kevin Beaumont.

According to security firm Check Point, the version of the ransomware that appeared today is a new variant.

Several experts monitoring the situation have linked the attacks to vulnerabilities released by a group known as The Shadow Brokers, which recently claimed to have dumped hacking tools stolen from the NSA.

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An attack such as this has been inevitable due to the inherent vulnerabilities of the world wide web (conceived by an amateur, remember) and the near monopoly of the Windows operating system and Google search engine that has been encouraged by governments of the USA, the EU and most leading nations of the free world.

While it’s true that things are much more convenient if we all use the same computer systems, convenience is a double edged sword. What’s convenient for the lay user is even more convenient for cyber criminals who are rogue programmers and analysts.

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While scientists burble excitedly about the internet of things, computer-brain interfaces that will enable the government to control us from data centres, creating human / computers hybrids and other science fantasy rubbish as if any of it stands a chance of becoming reality, government Information Technology managers, with almost unlimited resources at their disposal, can’t even manage to cobble together a simple database and search routine. The failure of the e borders project is the latest in a long line of screw ups.

How Internet Companies Like Google and Facebook Have Helped The spread of extremism
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Pissed Off With Government/Microsoft/Google Online Spying? Be Completely Anonymous Online
Not so long ago our biggest worry online was malware, virus software, trojans and worms plagued the internet cost many people a lot of time and worry. Since about a year ago everything has changed, protecting our digital privacy is the issue and the enemy is no longer spotty little nerds hunched over computers in dimly lit basements, but governments and major technology corporations.

Item In Todays News About US Gov’t Internet Security Hack has Tipped Our Editor Over The Edge.
I had my fill of the USA’s presidential election some time ago. Trump won, personally I was glad, not because I think he’ll be a good president, he’s a cunt, but because Hillary Clinton campaigned on a promise to start World War Three and that’s the one campaign promise I was sure she would keep. …

Facebook boss Zukerberg Wants To Own The Internet
Facebook’s latest acquisition Whatsapp cost $19bn, that’s $40 per user. Whatsapp charge their users $1 per year. That means it will take Facebook 40 years to recover their outlay. And people are buying shares in this company? Insane.

The Internet Purge Of Politically Incorrect (aka truthful) Content Begins.
When US President Barack Hussein Obama (the cocksucker president) in one of his moves aimed at sucking offup to the globalist millionaires who are trying to abolish free speech and democracy signed over (illegally and unconstitutionally) to the United Nations the USA’s control of ICANN, the nearest thing the internet has to date had to …

Technowanks for technowankers with Google Glass?
Almost every day we are reporting the latest ‘breaktrhough in dehumanisation and a further step towards making us all slaves to technology. The scientists are out of control, semi – autistic nerds with no understanding of ethical boundaries are giving politicians with no scruples about reviving Naziism the tools to enslave us.

Internet Privacy: could Your Online Porn Viewing Details Go Viral
Even if you are using privacy tools is your internet browsing safe. How secret are your financial transactions, are the off colour jokes you share with friends really private, and what about the kind of sites you would never tell your mother you visit? While you are watching porn, who is watching you? Image source: …

Facebook Are Nazis – We Told You So
All the Greenteeth Labyrinth pages have consistently warned that the most successful internet companies, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Twitter etc. are led by people with authoritarian, even fascistic tendencies and a world domination complex which manifests itself as a desire to establish a monopoly position in their field. Facebook are at the forfront of this fascist cartel.

Facebook Boss Zuckerberg Wants To Own The Internet

Facebook IPO

Facebook Evil Empire

Facebook Privacy Piracy

Google Being Evil

Google Surveillance Society

Itnernet Privacy Theft

Internet Threat To Fivilisation

News Used To Be Important But The Internet Is A barrier To How We Communicate

Tell the internet I am a human being not a computer

The technology you deserve

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Terry Pratchett’s Hydraulic Computer Wasn’t A Joke After All

In Terry Pratchett’s Discworld novel Making Money which is a satirical story of the creation of a fractional reserve banking system on the Discworld, the Wizards of the Unseen University* help to develop a water driven computer to model the economy of the city state of Ankh Morpork and predict future trends.

MONIAC – the water computer, now a museum piece (source)

 The computer is no more successful that the modern, digital supercomputers used by banks and governments but the book is very funny, it’s central character has the irresistible name of Moist Von Lipwig and while providing plenty of laughs it makes some very sound points about the flaws in the global financial system.

Now since reading the book I have thought the hydraulic computer was a creation of Terry Pratchett’s abundant imagination. I was wrong it seems, there was once, not all that long ago, a hydraulic financial modelling computer named MONIAC – Monetary National Income Analogue Computer. And it was no less successful (i.e. they’re all totally hopeless) at predicting economic trends than the supercomputers used by banks, government agencies and universities that failed to predict the 2008 financial crisis. I’ve linked an article from Zero Hedge below.

Water clocks are a kind of computer of course and have been around from pre Roman times. The earliest documented by contemporary witness accounts was the one in Alexandria, Egypt, in the reign of Nero (1st Cetury AD). There are several examples of medieval water clocks still telling the time in Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and The Czech Republic.

*you have to be sharp to pick up all Pratchett’s jokes, did you know for instance that Britain’s foremost scientific association, The Royal Society, was in former times nicknamed The Unseen College for the way it steered research.
from Zero Hedge

Presenting The 70 Year Old Hydraulic Computer Used By Central Planners To Visualize Economy

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Scientists Predict Robot Brains to Match Humans in 25 Years

The scientists have been wrong about robots with better-than-human intellgence before of course but this time they are sure they have it right (just as sure as they were all the other times when they got it hopelessly wrong).

Not long after the first modern computers evolved from bead boards via medieval water clocks in the 1940s, the science-is-God brigade started predicting that in just a few years / decades machines would be as smart as humans or more likely smarter than humans. Every year someone comes along and says the same but the prediction gets pushed back another year. The consensus now, according to a survey, is that it’s going to happen in … you guessed it, just a few more decades.

There may be more reason to believe the predictions today. After research that’s produced everything from self-driving cars (well not quite cars and not quite self driving) to Jeopardy!-winning supercomputers, scientists have a much better understanding of what they’re up against. And, perhaps, what we’re up against.

Nick Bostrom, director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, laid out the best predictions of the artificial intelligence (AI) research community in his new book, “Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies.” Here are the combined results of four surveys of AI researchers, including a poll of the most-cited scientists in the field, totalling 170 respondents who were asked:

So if Human-level machine intelligence is defined as “a machine that can carry out most human professions at least as well as a typical human,” then the only answer to the question ‘when will human level machine intelligence be available’ is “haven’t a clue, probably never”. Unless of course we were to redefine what we mean as intelligence, equating it to an ability to parse vast amounts of digital information amazingly quickly and match defined binary strings.

If however we were to ask “When will computers be as clever as scientists,” the answer is “In evolutionary terms, computers are already a couple of million years ahead. A computer would never commit the folly of trying to design an intelligent scientist.”

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When The Robots Rule The World